January 4, 2024
Summary: the widespread fog and low clouds that formed overnight and this morning are still with us this afternoon. The base of the overcast ranges from 800 feet at Porterville to 3,200 feet at Bakersfield. Satellite imagery shows drier air trying to work its way down the follow in Merced County, however there’s a reasonable chance that many areas will not clear tonight, especially in the south valley. Areas that do clear, especially north of Madera will be subject to the reformation of ground fog later tonight and Friday morning. A weak ridge of high pressure is currently over central California. It will give way to a light trough passage Friday. No weather will be associated with this trough. The next weather maker for central California will arrive Saturday afternoon in the form of a cold low from the Gulf of Alaska. This system will not carry much water with most locations north of Kern County recording around .10 to possibly .25. Behind this system will be the coldest air of the season so far. This will lead to a light freeze Monday through Wednesday morning. This is discussed below in the frost summary. High pressure will build in from the west and dominate our weather through Tuesday night. the next system to move out of the Gulf of Alaska will arrive Wednesday through Wednesday night. this storm is looking more anemic, so we’ll back off and just call for a chance of light showers. Another weak system will arrive Friday night and Saturday, however this system also looks rather paltry. We’ll go with just a slight chance of light showers Saturday.
Forecast: Low overcast and patchy fog tonight from Fresno County south. Partly cloudy with areas of dense fog forming north of Fresno County. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday and Friday night. increasing clouds Saturday with light showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday night. variable cloudiness Wednesday and Wednesday night with a slight chance of showers, mainly from Fresno north. Partly cloudy Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/53/30/55 | Reedley 33/53/31/54 | Dinuba 33/53/31/55 |
| Porterville 36/53/32/55 | Lindsay 32/52/30/54 | Delano 36/53/32/55 |
| Bakersfield 38/53/35/55 | Taft 42/50/37/53 | Arvin 37/53/34/55 |
| Lamont 37/54/33/55 | Pixley 34/53/32/55 | Tulare 34/52/30/53 |
| Woodlake 33/53/30/53 | Hanford 35/53/33/54 | Orosi 33/52/31/54 |
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph this afternoon and evening. Winds will continue out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday evening. Winds Friday and Saturday will be generally less than 5 mph with locally calmer conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night. models are showing a weakening system and the potential for precipitation due here Wednesday is dropping. If the afternoon models are correct, there will be only a minimal chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, and even then north of Fresno, so we’ll back off and call for a minimal chance of showers north of Fresno Wednesday and Wednesday night. The event coming up next Friday and Saturday still appears to be a go. After next Saturday, a big ridge will build along the west coast for what will likely be several days of dry weather.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 tonight but near to slightly above in the coldest locations. I want to add a caveat to that however. The fog and low cloud deck which has kept most of the valley cold and overcast most of the day is eroding from the north. So there is a small chance of some upper 20s, mostly from Fresno County north. So be aware, tonight could be one of those nights with a few curveballs. The air mass moving in behind Saturday night and Sunday storm is the coldest so far this season. Coldest locations Monday and Tuesday mornings could possibly drop to the 25-26 range with most locations ranging from 28 to 31. Wednesday through Friday could see upper 20s and lower 30s. low pressure moving through central California Wednesday and Wednesday night does not appear to be particularly strong at this point, so it’s questionable whether it will generate enough cloud cover to keep temperatures up. We should be mostly clear Thursday and Friday, however I want to add to this that fog and low overcast could take a central role in low temperatures this upcoming week. If the fog and low clouds remain widespread, temperatures will remain pretty much in the low to mid 30s.