January 5, 2024
Summary: As of midday, there was a combination of sunshine and lower level clouds which developed along a very weak trough passage this morning. a weak wedge of upper level high pressure is separating California from a fast moving cold low just off the British Columbia coast. This low will dive into central California late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. light showers will spread down to Merced County by midafternoon Saturday then will rapidly spread southward over the remainder of the valley Saturday evening. Most, if not all, the activity will be over by Sunday afternoon. High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will build in from the west Sunday and will continue through Tuesday night. Modified arctic air will move into central California Sunday, leading to subfreezing temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. More on this below. By Wednesday evening, a cold but weak system will move down the coast and into California. This system is not impressive, but it will provide a chance of light showers late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Models this afternoon are indicating yet another low will drop into California from the Gulf of Alaska Friday night and Saturday. The latest GFS model depicts this storm as quite dynamic with possibly significant precipitation during the first half of the weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight with patchy fog forming after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Saturday morning. light showers reaching Merced County by midafternoon, spreading rapidly southward during the evening hours. Becoming mostly clear Sunday with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday morning leading to a chance of light showers Wednesday afternoon and night. partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday with a chance of rain Friday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/55/37/48 | Reedley 32/52/37/50 | Dinuba 31/53/36/48 |
| Porterville 32/53/37/49 | Lindsay 30/54/35/48 | Delano 33/55/37/49 |
| Bakersfield 37/55/38/48 | Taft 38/54/41/48 | Arvin 34/55/37/48 |
| Lamont 35/55/37/49 | Pixley 32/55/35/47 | Tulare 30/53/36/47 |
| Woodlake 31/54/35/47 | Hanford 33/53/38/49 | Orosi 30/53/36/48 |
Winds: Winds today and tonight will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday through Saturday evening will be out of the southeast at around 8 to 15 mph. Winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph Saturday night, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Saturday night with stronger gusts. These winds will diminish to around 5 to 10 mph later Sunday night with light to near calm winds Monday.
Rain: Our next chance of rain will begin about midafternoon Saturday then will spread rapidly south during the evening. This is a fast moving system so all the precipitation should be over by sunrise Sunday. This storm will not carry a significant amount of water. Even so, .10 to .25 is possible north of Kern County with upwards to a tenth of an inch or so over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return Sunday and continue through Tuesday night. The next cold low out of the Gulf of Alaska will arrive Wednesday with only a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. The GFS has done a complete flip and that indicates a potent storm will drop southward into California Friday night and Saturday. If this turns out to be what it’s currently appearing to be, this could be a significant rainmaker.
Frost: The current air mass is cold but not excessively so. Expect widespread low to mid 30s tonight, assuming skies remain relatively clear with a chance of a few river bottom type locations dropping into the upper 20s. Hillsides will remain above freezing. All locations will be above freezing Sunday morning due to cloud cover and scattered showers. The light freeze we’ve been discussing for the past week or so is still on for next Monday and Tuesday mornings. Coldest unprotected low land locations could potentially drop to 23 to 25 degrees. Typical flat land locations will generally run between 26 and 29 with hillsides in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday morning’s outcome will actually be determined by cloud cover ahead of the next system. For tonight, we’ll go with upper 20s to lower 30s. Currently, Thursday morning appears to be a low to mid 30s event. Friday’s outcome will also be determined by the amount of cloud cover that moves in ahead of the next weather system. The GFS model has flip flopped and now is projecting a major winter storm the first half of the weekend. Assuming this does occur, readings should remain in the 30s.