January 6, 2024
Summary: Clouds are rapidly increasing over north central California ahead of a cold low located just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Doppler radar is showing rain rapidly advancing southward north west California. This is a fast moving system so light showers may reach as far south as Merced County by late afternoon, advancing through the valley this evening. This will not be a big precipitation producer due to its rapid movement and the cold nature of the storm. Still, somewhere between a tenth and a quarter of an inch is possible north of Kern County. The rain will be over by sunrise Sunday. On Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will rapidly build in from the west and will dominate the pattern into early Wednesday. The air mass is quite cold behind this system. Highs Sunday, for example, will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark. That will lead us into a light freeze Monday and Tuesday, which is discussed below in the frost section. The next weather system will arrive Wednesday night. models continue to show this as a weak system with only a 50/50 chance of measurable precipitation, especially in the south valley. Models have once again flip flopped on the weather for this coming weekend. Some of yesterday afternoon’s models were showing a major event for Saturday. Models this morning have backed way off on that solution and now depict a minimal event with only a chance of light showers, if we receive any at all. If there’s one common denominator, it’s that winter temperatures have arrived and will be with us for a while.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today with showers becoming likely in Merced County by late afternoon. Showers tonight, mainly before midnight. Mostly clear Sunday with the exception of Kern and Tulare Counties. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness late Wednesday with a chance of light showers Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. a chance of light showers Friday night and Saturday.
| Madera 54/34/48/28/52 | Reedley 55/35/49/29/51 | Dinuba 53/35/48/27/51 |
| Porterville 55/36/49/28/51 | Lindsay 54/35/49/26/50 | Delano 55/37/48/29/51 |
| Bakersfield 56/39/49/31/51 | Taft 54/38/46/33/47 | Arvin 55/36/49/20/52 |
| Lamont 55/36/49/29/51 | Pixley 54/34/48/27/52 | Tulare 53/35/47/26/51 |
| Woodlake 52/35/48/27/51 | Hanford 54/37/59/29/51 | Orosi 53/36/48/27/51 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 27/52 | Wednesday Increasing clouds 33/53 | Thursday Am showers possible 33/52 | Friday Am patchy fog/pm sun 29/51 | Saturday Chance of showers 36/53 |
Two Week Outlook: January 12 through January 18: This model paints below average temperatures over the western 2/3 of the US, including California. The chance for above average precipitation is certainly there as the storm track moves just to our north.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: Mostly light showers will begin to spread into Merced County by midafternoon then will spread rapidly down the valley during the late afternoon to evening hours. Most, if not all, the precipitation will be over by midnight or shortly thereafter. Rainfall at most locations north of Kern County will range between .10 to .25 or so. Dry weather will rapidly return tonight and will continue through at least Friday morning. models have down a complete about face on a storm due in here Friday and Saturday, so we’ll reduce the rain estimates to just light showers. Upper level high pressure will build in next weekend for dry weather into next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight due to cloud cover and precipitation, but only slightly above in the coldest locations. That will not be the case Monday and Tuesday mornings. Colder air will spread behind tonight’s system with gusty northwesterly winds Sunday. As these winds die off, strong radiational cooling will occur. The wild card for Monday morning will be the potential for some upslope clouds to remain in the south valley. Most of the models show these clouds mixing out, leaving several hours of clear skies. The potential for unprotected riverbottom and like locations Monday and Tuesday mornings is around 23 to 25 degrees. Most flatland locations will chill to between 26 and 29 degrees. Hillsides will be in the low to mid 30s. A weak weather system and chance of showers Wednesday night should keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Forecasting around cloud cover Thursday and Friday mornings will be the main challenge but upper 30s to low 40s will be possible. Models for this weekend have been all over the place. Currently it appears cloud cover and wind conditions will hold temperatures in the 30s.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .24, Parlier, .17, Arvin .26, Delano .21.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 53, Arvin 53, Delano 51
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 72/20
Heating Degree Days Season. 786 -319 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 1.24, Monthly .35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 1.11, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 47.5 +1.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 470 Arvin, 415 Belridge, 419 Shafter, 457 Stratford, 438 Delano 475. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 4:57 hours of daylight, 9:45
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 53 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 52 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 53 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 50 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 51 / 39 / 0.00 /\
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 4.01 83 10.72 222 4.83 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.23 102 8.94 215 4.15 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.29 85 7.01 182 3.86 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.29 66 3.14 91 3.45 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.24 35 5.91 168 3.51 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.77 66 4.19 156 2.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 1.11 54 2.49 121 2.05 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 41 3.14 212 1.48 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.41 79 0.20 38 0.52 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.06 71 6.66 155 4.29 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.34 169 7.11 190 3.75 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.61 89 7.18 176 4.07 13.32
Next report: January 6 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.