Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Uncategorized

January 7, 2024 report

January 7, 2024

Summary:  A trough of low pressure and its associated cold front moved rapidly down the valley overnight. Rainfall amounts, as expected, were light, ranging from just .03 in Bakersfield to .28 at Merced. A northwest push of air behind the front is now underway. As this flow is lifted by the Kern County mountains, lower level upslope clouds are being generated. These clouds cover Kern and Tulare Counties with a strip of low clouds northward along the Sierra Nevada foothills to Merced County. Most of the west side of the valley is generally clear with gusty northwesterly winds. Upper level high pressure will build in from the west today and tonight, generating a north/northwesterly flow. Modified arctic air will pool along the valley floor tonight, leading to below freezing temperatures, which is detailed below in the frost discussion. Upper level high pressure will dominate our pattern through Wednesday night and then a fast moving trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Models continue to indicate most of the moisture from this system moving east of the Sierra Nevada. Despite this, there is a chance of showers. Another low will build inland Thursday night and Friday. Over the weekend, a cold low will drop southward into the Great Basin. It appears the bulk of this system will move southward just to our east with just a slight chance of showers Saturday and Sunday. This pattern will continue to move cold air into central California, so frost nights can be expected any night where skies are generally clear.

Forecast: Mostly cloudy over Kern and Tulare Counties today with mostly clear skis elsewhere. Areas of low clouds and dense fog late tonight, otherwise it will be clear and cold. Areas of fog and low clouds Monday morning, otherwise it will be mostly clear. Areas of low clouds and fog nights and mornings, otherwise it will be clear Tuesday through Wednesday. Increasing clouds Wednesday night, leading to a chance of light showers Wednesday night and early Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing clouds Friday night. a slight chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday with areas of night and morning clouds and low fog. 

Madera 47/27/51/28/53Reedley 49/29/50/28/53Dinuba 47/28/51/28/53
Porterville 48/28/50/28/52Lindsay 49/27/51/27/53Delano 48/29/51/29/52
Bakersfield 47/31/50/30/52Taft 43/33/48/36/52Arvin 47/30/52/29/54
Lamont 48/29/50/29/53Pixley 47/28/51/29/52Tulare 47/29/51/27/52
Woodlake 48/28/50/28/52Hanford 49/29/50/29/53Orosi 48/27//51/28/52

Seven Day Forecast

Wednesday AM fog/partly cloudy 31/53Thursday Am showers possible 35/51Friday Am fog/partly cloudy 29/52Saturday Slight chance of showers 29/54Sunday Am fog/pm sun 33/55

Two Week Outlook:  January 14 through January 20: This model finally indicates moderation in temperatures for the west coast, including the valley with near average temperatures. It’s possible milder storms could affect California for a good shot of above average rainfall.

January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.

January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph along the west side. Winds will decrease to 8 to 15 mph this evening, becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Expect elevated winds once again Wednesday and Thursday.  

Rain Discussion: Rainfall overnight was light, as expected, ranging from just .03 at Bakersfield to .28 at Merced. Expect dry weather through Wednesday. Another cold, fast moving system will clip us Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday night through Friday afternoon will be dry. Models for the weekend are inconclusive. It appears at least a moisture starved system will move through, so we’ll put a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast for Saturday and Saturday night.Models keep flip flopping on the pattern for next week. we’ll go with a dry forecast for at least the first half of the week. There have been hints at the possibility of milder storms affecting the region late next week.

Frost Discussion: There are two possibilities for tonight’s outcome. Already, behind last night’s cold frontal passage are upslope clouds. As of the time of this writing. These clouds cover Kern County and much of Tulare County with a ribbon of low clouds along the Sierra Nevada foothills. Many times, upslope clouds will remain in the south valley through the night while at other times, these clouds mix out for mostly clear skies. Under solution one: these clouds remain all night, keeping temperatures in the  30s. Solution  two is these clouds mix out during the overnight hours, allowing for strong radiational cooling. This solution would result in widespread mid to upper 20s with the very coldest locations down to 23 to25 degrees. Most flatland locations range from 26 to 29. For tonight’s forecast, I’ll go with the colder solution, erring on the side of caution.

The inversion tonight will be fairly week with temperatures 2 to 5 degrees warmer and possibly improving some after sunrise. Hillsides will be generally in the low to mid 30s. expect similar conditions Tuesday morning. fog and/or low clouds may play a role after midnight, so it’s possible some locations may have a combination of below freezing temperatures and ice fog after midnight. Temperatures Wednesday through Thursday mornings will depend on cloud cover. A weak disturbance will move through Wednesday into Thursday for increasing cloud cover, maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 30s. expect upper 20s and lower 30s Friday with upper 20s to the mid 30s Saturday and Sunday.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella 28Porterville 27Ivanhoe 27Woodlake 28
Strathmore 29McFarland 27Ducor 29Tea pot dome 28
Lindsay 26Exeter 27Famoso 29Madera 28
Belridge 26Delano 28North Bakersfield 29Orosi 27
Orange cove 28Lindcove 27Lindcove Hillside 31Sanger river bottom 25
Root creek 26Venice hill 28Rosedale 29Jasmine 28
Arvin 29Lamont 29Plainview 28Mettler                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30
Edison 30Maricopa 29Holland creek 30Tivy Valley 27
Kite Road South 30Kite Road North 27  

AF=Above Freezing

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. 

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .16, Parlier, .17, Arvin .27, Delano .20.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52, Arvin 53, Delano 50  

Average Temperatures: 54/37,  Record Temperatures: 71/20

Heating  Degree Days Season.  828 -315  varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno .1.42, Monthly  .53

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 1.14, Monthly:  .18

Average Temperature this Month 46.3 +0.3 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 501  Arvin, 432 Belridge, 437 Shafter, 476 Stratford, 469 Delano 502.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 7:12.  Sunset, 4:59  hours of daylight, 9:47

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather: 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  50 /  37 /  0.28 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  51 /  38 /  0.20 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  52 /  37 /  0.18 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  50 /  41 /  0.04 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  50 /  37 /  0.04 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  57 /  39 /  0.03 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  50 /  39 /  0.01 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  51 /  41 /  0.08 /

Rainfall:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

MERCED                        0.02    3.31    83    7.92   198     4.01    11.80

MADERA                           T    2.29    64    3.32    93     3.58    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.24    34    6.34   174     3.65    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.77    63    4.52   162     2.79     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.11    52    2.60   122     2.13     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.61    39    3.66   233     1.57     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.41    76    0.23    43     0.54     2.20

SALINAS                          T    3.06    69    6.84   154     4.45    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.34   162    7.46   190     3.92    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    3.61    85    7.98   188     4.24    13.32