January 7, 2024
Summary: A trough of low pressure and its associated cold front moved rapidly down the valley overnight. Rainfall amounts, as expected, were light, ranging from just .03 in Bakersfield to .28 at Merced. A northwest push of air behind the front is now underway. As this flow is lifted by the Kern County mountains, lower level upslope clouds are being generated. These clouds cover Kern and Tulare Counties with a strip of low clouds northward along the Sierra Nevada foothills to Merced County. Most of the west side of the valley is generally clear with gusty northwesterly winds. Upper level high pressure will build in from the west today and tonight, generating a north/northwesterly flow. Modified arctic air will pool along the valley floor tonight, leading to below freezing temperatures, which is detailed below in the frost discussion. Upper level high pressure will dominate our pattern through Wednesday night and then a fast moving trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Models continue to indicate most of the moisture from this system moving east of the Sierra Nevada. Despite this, there is a chance of showers. Another low will build inland Thursday night and Friday. Over the weekend, a cold low will drop southward into the Great Basin. It appears the bulk of this system will move southward just to our east with just a slight chance of showers Saturday and Sunday. This pattern will continue to move cold air into central California, so frost nights can be expected any night where skies are generally clear.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy over Kern and Tulare Counties today with mostly clear skis elsewhere. Areas of low clouds and dense fog late tonight, otherwise it will be clear and cold. Areas of fog and low clouds Monday morning, otherwise it will be mostly clear. Areas of low clouds and fog nights and mornings, otherwise it will be clear Tuesday through Wednesday. Increasing clouds Wednesday night, leading to a chance of light showers Wednesday night and early Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing clouds Friday night. a slight chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday with areas of night and morning clouds and low fog.
| Madera 47/27/51/28/53 | Reedley 49/29/50/28/53 | Dinuba 47/28/51/28/53 |
| Porterville 48/28/50/28/52 | Lindsay 49/27/51/27/53 | Delano 48/29/51/29/52 |
| Bakersfield 47/31/50/30/52 | Taft 43/33/48/36/52 | Arvin 47/30/52/29/54 |
| Lamont 48/29/50/29/53 | Pixley 47/28/51/29/52 | Tulare 47/29/51/27/52 |
| Woodlake 48/28/50/28/52 | Hanford 49/29/50/29/53 | Orosi 48/27//51/28/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday AM fog/partly cloudy 31/53 | Thursday Am showers possible 35/51 | Friday Am fog/partly cloudy 29/52 | Saturday Slight chance of showers 29/54 | Sunday Am fog/pm sun 33/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 14 through January 20: This model finally indicates moderation in temperatures for the west coast, including the valley with near average temperatures. It’s possible milder storms could affect California for a good shot of above average rainfall.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: Rainfall overnight was light, as expected, ranging from just .03 at Bakersfield to .28 at Merced. Expect dry weather through Wednesday. Another cold, fast moving system will clip us Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday night through Friday afternoon will be dry. Models for the weekend are inconclusive. It appears at least a moisture starved system will move through, so we’ll put a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast for Saturday and Saturday night.Models keep flip flopping on the pattern for next week. we’ll go with a dry forecast for at least the first half of the week. There have been hints at the possibility of milder storms affecting the region late next week.
Frost Discussion: There are two possibilities for tonight’s outcome. Already, behind last night’s cold frontal passage are upslope clouds. As of the time of this writing. These clouds cover Kern County and much of Tulare County with a ribbon of low clouds along the Sierra Nevada foothills. Many times, upslope clouds will remain in the south valley through the night while at other times, these clouds mix out for mostly clear skies. Under solution one: these clouds remain all night, keeping temperatures in the 30s. Solution two is these clouds mix out during the overnight hours, allowing for strong radiational cooling. This solution would result in widespread mid to upper 20s with the very coldest locations down to 23 to25 degrees. Most flatland locations range from 26 to 29. For tonight’s forecast, I’ll go with the colder solution, erring on the side of caution.
The inversion tonight will be fairly week with temperatures 2 to 5 degrees warmer and possibly improving some after sunrise. Hillsides will be generally in the low to mid 30s. expect similar conditions Tuesday morning. fog and/or low clouds may play a role after midnight, so it’s possible some locations may have a combination of below freezing temperatures and ice fog after midnight. Temperatures Wednesday through Thursday mornings will depend on cloud cover. A weak disturbance will move through Wednesday into Thursday for increasing cloud cover, maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 30s. expect upper 20s and lower 30s Friday with upper 20s to the mid 30s Saturday and Sunday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 28 | Porterville 27 | Ivanhoe 27 | Woodlake 28 |
| Strathmore 29 | McFarland 27 | Ducor 29 | Tea pot dome 28 |
| Lindsay 26 | Exeter 27 | Famoso 29 | Madera 28 |
| Belridge 26 | Delano 28 | North Bakersfield 29 | Orosi 27 |
| Orange cove 28 | Lindcove 27 | Lindcove Hillside 31 | Sanger river bottom 25 |
| Root creek 26 | Venice hill 28 | Rosedale 29 | Jasmine 28 |
| Arvin 29 | Lamont 29 | Plainview 28 | Mettler 30 |
| Edison 30 | Maricopa 29 | Holland creek 30 | Tivy Valley 27 |
| Kite Road South 30 | Kite Road North 27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .16, Parlier, .17, Arvin .27, Delano .20.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52, Arvin 53, Delano 50
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 71/20
Heating Degree Days Season. 828 -315 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .1.42, Monthly .53
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 1.14, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature this Month 46.3 +0.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 501 Arvin, 432 Belridge, 437 Shafter, 476 Stratford, 469 Delano 502. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 4:59 hours of daylight, 9:47
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 50 / 37 / 0.28 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 51 / 38 / 0.20 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 52 / 37 / 0.18 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 50 / 41 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 50 / 37 / 0.04 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 39 / 0.03 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 50 / 39 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 51 / 41 / 0.08 /
Rainfall:
MERCED 0.02 3.31 83 7.92 198 4.01 11.80
MADERA T 2.29 64 3.32 93 3.58 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.24 34 6.34 174 3.65 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.77 63 4.52 162 2.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.11 52 2.60 122 2.13 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 39 3.66 233 1.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.41 76 0.23 43 0.54 2.20
SALINAS T 3.06 69 6.84 154 4.45 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.34 162 7.46 190 3.92 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.61 85 7.98 188 4.24 13.32