January 9, 2024
Summary: Subfreezing temperatures were common again overnight with numerous locations in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The coldest I could find as of 5:00am was 27 degrees at Exeter. A ridge of high pressure currently above us will give way to the next weather system out of the eastern Gulf of Alaska which will sweep through Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The air mass associated with this low is similar to the previous one. It will lower snow levels down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet. This system will not carry much water with most locations recording .10 or less. a reinforcing shot of cold air will move down the valley Thursday, leading to more subfreezing conditions Friday and possibly Saturday morning. More in the frost discussion below. Over the weekend, there is a slight risk of a few light showers Saturday into Sunday. This weak system’s origins are in lower latitudes so if precipitation occurs at all, snow levels will be much higher. Models continue to trend towards dry weather next week with a dome of high pressure over the western 1/3 of the US. This will also increase the chance of night and early morning fog, possibly beginning Sunday night.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today with patchy fog this morning. increasing cloudiness tonight. Mostly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night with light showers becoming likely by Wednesday evening, continuing Wednesday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. variable cloudiness Saturday and Saturday night with a slight chance of showers. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday and Monday. Mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.
| Madera 54/33/52/35/50 | Reedley 54/34/54/36/52 | Dinuba 53/34/54/36/52 |
| Porterville 54/33/54/36/53 | Lindsay 53/32/54/35/51 | Delano 54/35/52/35/50 |
| Bakersfield 54/38/53/39/50 | Taft 51/38/48/39/48 | Arvin 55/34/52/36/50 |
| Lamont 54/36/52/37/50 | Pixley 54/35/52/35/50 | Tulare 53/33/54/36/51 |
| Woodlake 53/34/54/35/52 | Hanford 54/35/54/36/52 | Orosi 53/33/54/35/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Partly cloudy 29/50 | Saturday Slight chance of showers 31/53 | Sunday Partly cloudy 34/55 | Monday AM fog/PM sun 33/57 | Tuesdsday AM fog/PM sun 35/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 15 through January 21: This model shows a milder westerly flow becoming more dominant. This will result in somewhat above average temperatures. The Pacific storm track will be further south so there’s a better than even chance of above average precipitation during this period.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather through Tuesday night. light showers will begin to spread into Merced County by midafternoon Wednesday then will spread rapidly down the valley Wednesday evening. This is another fast mover so precipitation will be over by the early morning hours. Dry weather will return Thursday, continuing through at least Friday night. There’s a slight chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night, however, models indicate this system may remain dry. Models for all of next week show a blocking ridge pattern for a return to dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, although near to slightly above in the coldest locations. Models after midnight tonight show anywhere from 61% to 83% cloud cover after midnight. Modeling for Thursday morning also shows plenty of cloud cover above the valley for above freezing conditions. The air mass moving down the valley Wednesday night and Thursday is similar to the current one. With clearing skies Thursday, in all likelihood Friday morning will see temperatures in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. It’s possible to have upper 20s and lower 30s Saturday, although there may be enough cloud cover to maintain safe temperatures. A westerly flow will begin early next week which will result in a moderating air mass for above freezing temperatures.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .26, Parlier, .23, Arvin .30, Delano .28.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 51, Arvin 52, Delano 49
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 70/23
Heating Degree Days Season. 873 -308 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .1.53, Monthly .42
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 1.14, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature this Month 45.3 -0.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 515 Arvin, 441 Belridge, 446 Shafter, 488 Stratford, 483 Delano 513. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 5:01 hours of daylight, 9:48
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 53 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 53 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 51 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 4.16 80 11.27 218 5.17 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.37 97 9.64 215 4.49 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.57 86 8.56 205 4.17 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.49 67 3.52 95 3.71 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 37 6.57 173 3.80 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.81 62 4.61 158 2.91 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.14 52 2.61 118 2.21 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 37 3.78 229 1.65 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.41 73 0.23 41 0.56 2.20
SALINAS T 3.09 67 6.84 148 4.61 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.49 158 7.75 189 4.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.70 84 8.06 182 4.42 13.32