January 10, 2024
Summary: As of the time of this writing, precipitation had spread as far south as Ukiah and the northern Sacramento Valley inland. This precipitation is along and ahead of a pacific cold front. This front and trough will move through the valley tonight and early Thursday. Rain could spread into Merced County as early as early to mid afternoon. Showers will continue tonight, ending by the early morning hours. This storm is similar to the one we just experienced and will drop the snow level down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet in the nearby foothills. Upper level high pressure will quickly fill in Thursday and continue through Friday. The last storm we’ll see for a while will quickly set up from northwest to southeast on Saturday and Saturday night for our last chance of rain for a while. Models show a large high building over and off the west coast beginning Sunday. Models continue to show high pressure dominating all of next week for a dry pattern. On paper, this appears to be an idea pattern for fog and low clouds as a warm air inversion begins to build above the valley floor. Temperatures next week will be determined by fog coverage.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today leading to a chance of showers by mid to late afternoon from Fresno north. Showers likely tonight with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Showers ending during the predawn hours. Areas of fog and low clouds Thursday morning and mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties. Areas of fog and low clouds returning Thursday night, otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to a chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night with areas of fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday with increasing amounts of fog.
| Madera 54/35/50/29/53 | Reedley 54/36/51/29/52 | Dinuba 54/36/51/28/53 |
| Porterville 55/35/51/29/52 | Lindsay 54/34/52/28/52 | Delano 54/38/51/29/53 |
| Bakersfield 51/40//50/32/53 | Taft 49/37/44/37/49 | Arvin 55/38/52/31/53 |
| Lamont 55/37/52/31/52 | Pixley 53/35/50/29/53 | Tulare 53/35/51/28/52 |
| Woodlake 54/37/51/29/53 | Hanford 54/37/52/29/53 | Orosi 53/35//51/28/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Chance of showers 32/53 | Sunday Partly cloudy 35/54 | Monday Partly cloudy 34/58 | Tuesday Mostly clear 34/58 | Wednesday Am fog/pm sun 35/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 17 through January 23: This model shows a milder westerly flow becoming more dominant. This will result in somewhat above average temperatures. The Pacific storm track will be further south so there’s a better than even chance of above average precipitation during this period.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: Light showers will begin to spread into Merced County by midafternoon then will advance into the south valley during the late afternoon to evening hours. Showers will continue tonight, ending during the predawn hours. Rainfall amounts from this event will generally range from .15 to .25. The valley portion of Kern County will measure up to .10 with locally heavier amounts. Dry weather will prevail Thursday night through Friday night. there will be at least a chance of light showers Saturday and Saturday night. models indicate this will be a lower latitude event, meaning higher snow levels. Generally less than a quarter of an inch will be measured where it rains. Models predict next week will be dry under a protective dome of high pressure.
Frost Discussion: Heavy cloud cover and showers will keep all locations above freezing again tonight. Lows Friday and Saturday will again dip to below freezing as another shot of colder air surges down the valley Thursday. Coldest locations Friday morning will drop to 25 to27 degrees with most flatland locations ranging from 28 to 31. Models do indicate increasing amounts of cloud cover for Saturday morning. However, the main question is whether or not it arrives in time to halt the radiational cooling process. If cloud cover arrives too late, readings in the upper 20s to lower 30s will be likely. Most locations will be in the low to mid 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. Much warmer weather will arrive next week with highs possibly reaching the low 60s by Monday afternoon. However increasing amounts of valley fog will be likely which would hold down daytime temperatures and hold up overnight lows.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .32, Parlier, .27, Arvin .33, Delano .32.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 50, Arvin 52, Delano 48
Average Temperatures: 55/37, Record Temperatures: 68/18
Heating Degree Days Season. 896 -304 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .1.53, Monthly .42
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 1.14, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature this Month 44.9 -1.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 551 Arvin, 474 Belridge, 477 Shafter, 521 Stratford, 517 Delano 547. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 5:02 hours of daylight, 9:49
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 55 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 54 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON T 4.16 79 12.27 233 5.26 13.45
MODESTO T 4.37 95 10.51 229 4.58 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.57 84 10.36 244 4.25 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.49 66 3.98 105 3.78 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 37 8.10 209 3.88 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.81 61 5.91 199 2.97 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.14 51 3.41 152 2.25 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 36 6.80 400 1.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.41 72 0.25 44 0.57 2.20
SALINAS 0.01 3.10 66 7.49 159 4.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.49 155 10.55 251 4.20 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.70 82 11.48 254 4.52 13.32