January 28, 2024
Summary: The center of circulation of an upper ridge of high pressure is just west of San Diego this morning. in another 24 hours, the center will be almost right overhead. This will drive temperatures into record territory Monday and possibly Tuesday. Even today, warmest locations in the south valley will eclipse the 70 degree mark, something not often seen in January. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the high will be breaking down, allowing a deep trough of low pressure to extend from Alaska all the way to southern California. If this sounds like a long trough, it is. Models also depict an AR, or atmospheric river, developing along its bottom side for significant rain amounts from late Wednesday night through Friday. Most high resolution models indicate as much as three-quarters to one and a half inches will fall on the valley floor. the colder sector of the storm will arrive Friday with temperatures dropping into the 30s for the first time in a while. Medium range models show an active pattern continuing through next weekend with possibly more opportunities for rain late next week.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning and again Monday morning. otherwise it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance of rain by evening. Rain becoming likely at times Wednesday through Thursday night. a chance of showers Friday and Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday with areas of fog and low clouds. A slight chance of showers Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/47/74/47/72 | Reedley 69/45/74/47/71 | Dinuba 69/45/72/46/72 |
| Porterville 71/48/75/49/74 | Lindsay 70/46/74/48/74 | Delano 70/46//75/46/74 |
| Bakersfield 72/50/76/49/75 | Taft 70/52/71/53/69 | Arvin 71/48/75/48/73 |
| Lamont 72/48/75/49/72 | Pixley 70/47/74/47/73 | Tulare 68/46/73/46/71 |
| Woodlake 69/46/73/46/72 | Hanford 70/46/74/46/71 | Orosi 69/45/72/45/72 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday PM rain possible 51/72 | Thursday Periods of rain 52/69 | Friday Showers likely 41/59 | Saturday Am fog/partly cloudy 35/54 | Sunday Slight chance of showers 35/53 |
Two Week Forecast: February 4 through February 10: This model has done a 180 regarding temperatures during this period. Models now show a cold trough of low pressure engulfing much of the west. Therefore, expect below average temperatures for a change with an excellent chance of rain.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. there is a low chance of rain Wednesday afternoon. The chance of rain will dramatically increase after 10pm Wednesday night with continued on and off rain through Thursday night, followed by showers Friday. Most of the high resolution models that focus on precipitation amounts come out between ¾ of an inch an 11/2 with this event. It appears we’ll have a pretty good rain shadow Wednesday night through Thursday along the west side and especially in Kern County, so rain totals will be less there. When the colder sector of the storm arrives Thursday night and Friday, isolated thunderstorms with small hail may develop. Models now show us drying out over the weekend with only a small chance of precipitation Sunday.
Frost: The colder sector of this upcoming storm will arrive Friday. It’s possible some lower 30s could be recorded Saturday and Sunday mornings and even a slight chance of upper 20s. even though this upcoming pattern will be colder, it is not what I’d call a freeze pattern. still, I want to watch the pattern for Friday and beyond.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .29, Parlier, .31, Arvin .33, Delano .30.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 55, Arvin 60, Delano 55
Average Temperatures: 57/38, Record Temperatures: 78/23
Heating Degree Days Season. 1131 -393 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .2.79, Monthly 1.90
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.61, Monthly: .1.65
Average Temperature this Month 49.5 +2.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 647 Arvin, 576 Belridge, 562 Shafter, 622 Stratford, 620 Delano 642. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:03. Sunset, 5:21 hours of daylight, 10:16
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : M / M / M /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 65 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 66 / 47/ 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 7.15 105 15.47 227 6.82 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 132 13.42 221 6.07 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.43 114 12.85 228 5.64 11.80
MADERA 0.00 4.09 82 4.59 92 4.98 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 2.79 54 9.20 180 5.12 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.92 76 6.80 178 3.83 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.61 89 3.99 136 2.93 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.69 29 8.57 366 2.34 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.82 104 0.39 49 0.79 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 4.15 66 8.90 142 6.26 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.02 155 12.75 219 5.81 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.83 79 13.33 218 6.11 13.32