January 30, 2024
We’re currently in a transition period from a dry ridge of upper level high pressure to a powerful Pacific storm located several hundred miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. A powerful Jetstream is moving from west to east across the eastern Pacific Ocean to just off the California coast. Embedded within this flow are a myriad of disturbances which will result in heavy precipitation and periods of strong, gusty winds from Wednesday evening to Friday morning, for the first storm, with the second major low affecting us Sunday through Tuesday of next week. Each of these storms could potentially dump between one and two inches of precipitation on the valley floor north of Kern County. 8 Of interest also is that each of these systems will be accompanied by the pineapple express, or as the new guys call it the “atmospheric river of air”. Each of these terms is adequate. Models show plenty of buoyancy to the atmosphere Thursday which may be enough to trigger thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be a lull in the action Friday night through Saturday night, but even then precipitation cannot be ruled out as impulses race across the Pacific Ocean and into California from time to time. After Wednesday of next week, the pattern will quiet down some as there are no major storms showing up on paper. We’ll stick with the two week model out this afternoon which continues to reflect a high risk of above average precipitation.
Forecast, Partly cloudy with patchy fog tonight. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of rain by sunset. Rain likely Wednesday night through Thursday night with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Showers Friday. A chance of showers Friday night through Saturday night. Rain likely Sunday through Tuesday with gusty winds at times.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/70/52/59 | Reedley 51/71/52/60 | Dinuba 49/69/51/59 |
| Porterville 48/72/52/61 | Lindsay 48/73/50/59 | Delano 48/73/52/60 |
| Bakersfield 52/75/53/61 | Taft 55/70/54/59 | Arvin 50/75/52/62 |
| Lamont 50/72/52/61 | Pixley 49/71/51/59 | Tulare 49/69/50/58 |
| Woodlake 50/70/52/60 | Hanford 50/72/51/60 | Orosi 49/68/51/58 |
Winds: Winds through tonight will generally be out of the east to southeast at no more than 10 mph. winds Wednesday through Friday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with gusts to 25 mph, mainly north of Fresno County but locally elsewhere. You might want to keep in mind this coming Sunday and Monday that an intense low will be centered just west of the Golden Gate. This could potentially spawn some strong gusty winds along the west side and especially below the passes in Kern County. Since we are still five days out, much will no doubt change between now and then, but for wind prone crops, the potential is there for a high wind event. Again, that time frame is Sunday and Monday.
We are still monitoring pressure differences for late Saturday through Monday, between low barometric pressure off the northern California coast and much higher pressure over southern California. This configuration historically has generated strong, gusty, south to southeast winds along the west side, especially below the passes of the southern Kern County mountains. Models this afternoon are not quite as dramatic as they were 24 hours ago, but enough of a risk is there for growers of wind sensitive crops to be aware of this situation.
Rain: around sunset Wednesday still appears to be the timeframe for precipitation to begin spreading in from the west/northwest. A pineapple connection will energize this system as it moves through Wednesday night through Thursday night. thunderstorms will also be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The rain will begin to taper off by late Friday with just a chance of showers Friday night through Saturday night. the next powerful storm will roll on shore Sunday with precipitation continuing through at least Tuesday. No big storm shows up after Tuesday of next week, however the pattern is such that anything that develops out in the ocean would find the storm door open and ready for business.
Frost: Temperatures Friday through Sunday could dip into the mid to upper 30s. However, if the pattern remains active, even with a colder air mass moving in, below freezing temperatures are unlikely for the next week and a half.