January 30, 2024
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered over northern Arizona this morning. even though the high has shifted a bit further east, the proximity of the high combined with a southerly flow aloft will drive temperatures to near record values again this afternoon, although increasing amounts of cloud cover will probably keep temperatures in the lower 70s at most locations. We are in a transitory pattern change which will bring heavy amounts of precipitation to central California over the next week to week and a half. The first storm will spread precipitation into the west side of the valley by Wednesday evening and the remainder of the valley by Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This first system has a subtropical connection, more frequently alluded to as a pineapple connection. Between Wednesday evening and Friday evening, most locations will pick up between three-quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. In addition, the storm prediction center back in Norman, OK has the entire San Joaquin Valley under a general thunderstorm risk, mainly for Thursday afternoon and evening. Locations that do get hammered by a thunderstorm could pick up as much as two inches of rain along with localized small hail. There will be somewhat of a lull in the action Friday night through Saturday. A storm which will arrive late Saturday night or Sunday is extremely impressive looking with a powerful surface low located just west of the Golden Gate by Sunday afternoon. Not only is there high potential for heavy rain, but significant differences in surface pressure between southern California and that intense low west of the Golden Gate could potentially generate strong, gusty winds up the west side of the valley with possibly a high wind event near the base of the Kern County mountains.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight with areas of fog this morning. increasing cloudiness Wednesday with an increasing chance of rain along the west side by late afternoon. Rain at times Wednesday night through Thursday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Friday. A slight chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. A chance of rain Saturday night, mainly after midnight. Rain likely at times Sunday through Monday along with strong, gusty winds. Showers likely Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/50/70/51/59 | Reedley 74/50/69/51/61 | Dinuba 73/50/69/51/59 |
| Porterville 75/51/70/50/60 | Lindsay 74/48/71/50/59 | Delano 76/50/70/51/60 |
| Bakersfield 76/52/73/52/59 | Taft 72/55/68/52/58 | Arvin 76/51/72/51/61 |
| Lamont 75/51/70/51/61 | Pixley 74/48/70/49/59 | Tulare 73/49/68/50/59 |
| Woodlake 73/49/68/51/58 | Hanford 73/51/69/50/59 | Orosi 73/49/68/49/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Showers likely 38/56 | Saturday Slight chance of showers 39/60 | Sunday PM rain 46/61 | Monday Rain and wind 41/55 | Tuesday Chance of showers 33/55 |
Two Week Forecast: February 6 through February 12: This model has done a 180 regarding temperatures during this period. Models now show a cold trough of low pressure engulfing much of the west. Therefore, expect below average temperatures for a change with an excellent chance of rain.
Winds: Winds through tonight will generally be out of the east to southeast at no more than 10 mph. winds Wednesday through Friday will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with gusts to 25 mph, mainly north of Fresno County but locally elsewhere. You might want to keep in mind this coming Sunday and Monday that an intense low will be centered just west of the Golden Gate. This could potentially spawn some strong gusty winds along the west side and especially below the passes in Kern County. Since we are still five days out, much will no doubt change between now and then, but for wind prone crops, the potential is there for a high wind event. Again, that time frame is Sunday and Monday.
Rain The chance of rain will begin to pick up around sunset Wednesday along the west side and over the rest of the valley Wednesday night and at times through Thursday night. The rain will turn showery Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon. If they do break out, we can expect heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall amounts between Wednesday evening and Friday will range between three-quarters of an inch and an inch and a half. Lesser amounts can be expected along the west side and in Kern County where rain shadows will present a challenge. The rain will taper off by Friday evening but will begin to pick up again by late Saturday night or Sunday with rain continuing at times through Monday night and showers likely Tuesday. This system is shaping up to be a big event with possibly another one to two inches of rain north of Kern County. Between Wednesday of this week and Wednesday of next week, over six feet of snow is possible above the 8,000 foot elevation in the Sierra Nevada.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through at least Monday of next week. Models show a relatively cold air mass filtering in behind a cold weather system which will slide through next week. low to mid 30s are possible by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with a slight chance of upper 20s. Even though the air mass will be relatively cold during this time frame, it will also remain active, reducing the chance of possible subfreezing weather.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .37, Parlier, .42, Arvin .41, Delano .39.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin NA, Delano 55
Average Temperatures: 58/39, Record Temperatures: 74/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 1114 -414 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .2.79, Monthly 1.90
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.61, Monthly: .1.65
Average Temperature this Month 50.1 +3.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 647 Arvin, 576 Belridge, 562 Shafter, 622 Stratford, 620 Delano 642. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:02. Sunset, 5:23 hours of daylight, 10:19
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 77 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 75 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 76 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 76 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 7.15 102 15.50 222 6.99 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 128 13.43 215 6.24 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.43 111 12.92 223 5.79 11.80
MADERA 0.00 4.09 80 4.86 95 5.12 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 2.79 53 9.20 175 5.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.92 75 6.81 174 3.91 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.61 87 4.27 142 3.00 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.69 29 8.57 357 2.40 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.82 100 0.39 48 0.82 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 4.15 64 8.97 139 6.44 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.02 151 12.76 213 5.98 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.83 77 13.35 213 6.27 13.32