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January 31, 2024 report

January 31, 2024

Summary: The center of circulation of a powerful low is roughly 400 miles to the west of the Washington coast. Satellite imagery does an excellent job of depicting the dynamics of this event. A clear cut comma configuration with a huge swath of moisture stretches from the Hawaiian Islands to just off the northern California coast. This is a blockbuster winter storm which will dump 3 to 4 feet of new snow over the high Sierra between this evening and Friday. Lift will also squeeze out huge amounts of rain below the snow level with 2 to 3 inches of rain in the foothills and mountains. Models are still indicating a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening which could cause local flooding on the valley floor. from late Friday through Saturday, there will be a lull in the action before blockbuster winter storm number 2 comes knocking on the door Monday and sticks around through Tuesday. This storm also has a pineapple connection which will dump more heavy rain on the valley with copious amounts of precipitation over the Sierra and adjacent foothills. Models for next Wednesday and beyond are somewhat unclear. Some models show a cut off low drifting down the coast, continuing the risk of showers.

Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Rain becoming likely along the far west side by sunset. Rain tonight and at times through Thursday night. a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday. A chance of showers after midnight Saturday. Rain likely at times Sunday night through Tuesday, locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.  

Short Term:                                                                                                              

Madera 70/52/59/47/57Reedley 69/52/59/46/56Dinuba 69/50/59/45/58
Porterville 72/52/60/45/58Lindsay 73/51/60/44/57Delano 73/53/60/47/58
Bakersfield 76/55/61/47/58Taft 72/54/58/48/54Arvin 75/53/61/48/57
Lamont 75/53/61/47/58Pixley 72/51/59/45/57Tulare 70/50/57/45/57
Woodlake 70/50/60/45/59Hanford 71/53/61/46/58Orosi 70/50/58/45/58

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday Partly cloudy 36/57Sunday Rain and wind 41/57Monday Rain likely 47/58Tuesday Showers likely 46/61Wednesday Chance of showers 42/61

Two Week Forecast:  February 7 through February  13: This model has done a 180 regarding temperatures during this period. Models now show a cold trough of low pressure engulfing much of the west. Therefore, expect below average temperatures for a change with an excellent chance of rain.

Winds:  Significant differences in pressure will begin later today, lasting through Thursday between a powerful low pressure system off shore and much higher pressure over southern California and Nevada. Gusty east to southeast winds in the 15 to 25 mph range will increase along the west side with gusts to 40 mph possible. There’s also a chance of gusty south to southeast winds near the base of the Grapevine, possibly gusting to 55 mph. Gusts to 30 mph are possible as far north as Bakersfield. Again, that’s for later this afternoon through Thursday. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts, especially near showers. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be generally less than 10 mph and variable in nature. we are still studying the surface charts for Sunday into Monday of next week. the configuration on paper is close to being similar to high wind events in the south valley. This far ahead of a potential event I hesitate to use numbers, but gusts to near 70 mph along the bottom of the Grapevine and other traditionally windy spots would not be a surprise. Again, we’re talking about late Saturday night into early Monday.

Rain: Rain will begin spreading in from the west this afternoon along the west side then across the valley this  evening with rain continuing at times through Friday. Models also indicate that there will be a considerable amount of buoyancy to the atmosphere Thursday afternoon and evening, especially if  we observe breaks in the cloud deck. During blockbuster winter storms, like the one knocking on our door, typically, strong rain shadows develop along the west side and more so in Kern County. Just as a broad brush, from tonight through Friday night, one to two inches of rain is possible, north of Kern County along the east side of the valley.  up to one inch is possible along the western side of Fresno County and much of Kings County. Kern County can expect between one-half and one inch. Potentially heavy precipitation will also occur between late Saturday night through Tuesday from the second powerful storm to move on shore.

Frost: All locations will remain above freezing for at least the next week. partial clearing will take place Friday and Saturday nights and colder locations will dip into the mid to upper 30s. for now, there’s nothing on long range models suggesting a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. 

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .42, Parlier, .45, Arvin .47, Delano .45.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin NA, Delano 55  

Average Temperatures: 58/39,  Record Temperatures: 75/26

Heating  Degree Days Season.  1149 -426  varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno .2.79, Monthly  1.90

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 2.61, Monthly:  .1.65

Average Temperature this Month 50.4 +3.6 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 663  Arvin, 588 Belridge, 579 Shafter, 636 Stratford, 642 Delano 658.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 7:01.  Sunset, 5:24 hours of daylight, 10:21

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather: 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  73 /  55 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  75 /  58 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  74 /  56 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  73 /  54 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  73 /  52 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  75 /  53 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  73 /  53 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  74 /  51 /  0.00 /

Rainfall:                                     24hr         2024          %          l.y.               %                  ave              Yearly ave                                                                                                                               

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.15   101   15.50   219     7.08    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.00   127   13.43   213     6.32    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    6.43   110   12.92   220     5.86    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    4.09    79    4.86    94     5.19    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    2.79    53    9.20   173     5.31    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    2.92    74    6.81   172     3.96     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.61    86    4.32   142     3.04     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.69    28    8.57   353     2.43     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.82    99    0.39    47     0.83     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    4.15    64    8.97   138     6.52    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.02   149   12.82   211     6.07    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    4.83    76   13.35   210     6.36    13.32