February 1, 2024
Summary: Rainfall amounts as of 4:30 am were heaviest in Madera and Merced Counties. Merced has received .53 and Madera .27. Lemoore and Fresno each received .18, Hanford .16 and Visalia .17. Most other locations recorded a tenth of an inch or less. the colder sector of the storm will arrive later today. Satellite imagery this morning depicts a popcorn pattern to the clouds, which means there’s a considerable amount of buoyancy to the atmosphere. Assuming we receive some sunshine this afternoon, the atmosphere will destabilize even more, possibly enough for a few thunderstorms to develop, mainly this afternoon through the early evening hours. Another wave of low pressure will race on shore Friday, increasing once again the chance for precipitation. we will receive a short break in the action from Friday night through Saturday before the next intense low pressure system approaches the coast Saturday night. This system will have a strong surface low, which is projected to be right off the central coast Sunday. This, in part, will set the stage for strong, gusty winds in some areas such as the south valley and possibly along the west side. This storm will also be accompanied by an atmospheric river, or pineapple connection. These storms are also coming on shore perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, so intense rain and snow can be expected for a time today. Two to three inches of rainfall should accumulate in the mountains below 5,000 feet. The current freezing level above Oakland a short time ago was 5,900 feet, which would put the snow level at about 5,200 feet. Models which go out past Wednesday of next week keep the storm door open, however after Wednesday, there are no significant storms to come in. Even so, we’ll go with a chance of showers late next week.
Forecast: Periods of rain through Friday, possibly locally heavy at times. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday. An increasing chance of rain again by late Saturday night. Rain likely at times Sunday through Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times Sunday and Monday. A chance of showers Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/43/57/39/56 | Reedley 62/44/59/39/58 | Dinuba 61/43/58/37/57 |
| Porterville 62/43/58/37/59 | Lindsay 61/43/59/37/58 | Delano 63/45/59/39/58 |
| Bakersfield 63/48/58/43/56 | Taft 57/46/56/44/52 | Arvin 63/45/59/40/57 |
| Lamont 63/46/59/41/58 | Pixley 60/44/57/39/56 | Tulare 60/43/58/37/57 |
| Woodlake 61/44/58/38/57 | Hanford 62/45/58/39/58 | Orosi 60/44/57/38/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Rain likely 45/58 | Monday Rain likely 49/59 | Tuesday Rain likely 46/64 | Wednesday Chance of showers 39/61 | Thursday Slight chance of showers 40/58 |
Two Week Forecast: February 8 through February 14: This model has done a 180 regarding temperatures during this period. Models now show a cold trough of low pressure engulfing much of the west. Therefore, expect below average temperatures for a change with an excellent chance of rain.
Winds: Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Winds tonight through Friday will be variable to 15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph near showers. We’re still studying the time frame of later Saturday night through Monday. The configuration on the surface analysis continues to favor strong, gusty winds along the west side and especially in the extreme south valley. Winds out of the south to southeast of 15 to 30 mph along the west side seem plausible with gusts to 45 not at all out of the question. In the extreme south valley, gusts to near 60 mph are possible at places like the bottom of the Grapevine. Models this morning are not quite as favorable as those of 24 hours ago, however the potential for a strong wind event is there, mainly from Sunday into early Monday. the remainder of the valley should see winds out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: Periods of rain will continue through Friday. Thunderstorms of an isolated variety are possible this afternoon and evening. Any location in the path of a thunderstorm will observe locally gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail. We’ll see a break in the action from Friday night well into Saturday evening. The next chance of rain will begin later Saturday night with periods of rain Sunday through Tuesday night. The heaviest precipitation will occur Sunday through Monday as another atmospheric river moves on shore. From Wednesday and beyond, models continue to show an open storm door. As of now, there are no large scale systems over the Pacific Ocean after Wednesday. Still, with the various players out there, we’ll keep a small chance of showers in the forecast for a few days after Wednesday.
Frost: All locations will remain above freezing for at least the next week to ten days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .50, Arvin .57, Delano .50.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Arvin NA, Delano 55
Average Temperatures: 58/39, Record Temperatures: 73/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 1153 -439 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .2.80, Monthly 1.91
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 2.61, Monthly: .1.65
Average Temperature this Month 50.7 +3.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 663 Arvin, 589 Belridge, 579 Shafter, 636 Stratford, 642 Delano 658. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:00. Sunset, 5:25 hours of daylight, 10:23
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 51 / 0.41 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 68 / 52 / 0.23 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 70 / 53 / 0.07 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 66 / 53 / 0.16 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 52 / 0.07 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 76 / 59 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 69 / 53 / 0.06 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 71 / 53 / 0.03 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.01 7.16 100 15.50 216 7.17 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 8.01 125 13.43 210 6.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.43 108 12.92 218 5.94 11.80
MADERA 0.00 4.09 78 4.86 92 5.26 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 2.79 52 9.20 171 5.38 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.92 73 6.81 170 4.00 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.61 85 4.32 140 3.08 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.69 28 8.57 348 2.46 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.82 96 0.39 46 0.85 2.20
SALINAS T 4.15 63 8.97 136 6.61 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.02 147 12.82 208 6.15 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.83 75 13.35 207 6.45 13.32