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February 4, 2024 report

February 4, 2024

Summary: Short term forecast models indicate a surface low at 984 millibars to be centered just west of the Golden Gate by early to mid afternoon. Already this morning, the barometer at San Francisco has dropped to 29.56 inches of mercury while at Las Vegas the reading 30.06. That is a surface pressure gradient and it will increase as the day wears on, raising the potential for strong, gusty winds. So far, several locations in the Coast Range have winds gusting into the 40s and 50s. Panoche Rd. in extreme western Fresno County has had wind gusts to 56 mph. So far, the winds have been fairly tame on the valley floor, but with the combination of tremendous wind energy aloft and very strong surface pressure differences, will raise the potential of wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, especially along the west side. Kern County’s potential is discussed below in the wind summary. Rainfall amounts of more than an inch have already been measured in San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties. Not surprisingly, a rain shadow has developed along the west side and in Kern County. Rainfall amounts as of 4:30 this morning were generally around a tenth to a quarter  of an inch. Satellite imagery does an excellent job of displaying the atmospheric river. That river comes on shore at roughly San Jose in the north to Los Angeles County in the south. It’s a given that flooding will occur in areas of southern and central California. By this evening, the center of circulation will be just west of Ukiah and by Monday near the California/Oregon border. However, the atmospheric river will continue to move into central and southern California through Tuesday, continuing locally heavy rain at times. Models show a weak surface low moving inland Thursday and Friday. It’s not at all clear at this time whether anything measurable will be recorded, but I’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday. It still appears dry weather will begin this weekend and will last for several day.

Forecast: Periods of rain through Tuesday, possibly locally heavy at times. Variable cloudiness Wednesday through Sunday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday through Friday.

Short Term:                                                                                                              

Madera 64/51/63/46/56Reedley 65/51/63/47/56Dinuba 62/50/60/47/57
Porterville 64/51/63/47/57Lindsay 64/48/61/47/58Delano 64/52/63/48/58
Bakersfield 65/53/63/49/59Taft 63/51/58/49/53Arvin 65/53/63/47/57
Lamont 65/52/63/48/57Pixley 65/52/63/47/57Tulare 63/49/63/46/56
Woodlake 64/49/62/48/58Hanford 64/52/62/48/58Orosi 61/49/62/47/57

Seven Day Forecast

Wednesday Slight chance of showers 42/58Thursday Slight chance of showers 39/57Friday Partly cloudy 42/59Saturday Partly cloudy 38/57Sunday Partly cloudy 38/58

Two Week Forecast:  February 11 through February  17: For the first time in more than two weeks, this model is projecting a dry forecast. Temperatures during this time frame should be near average.

Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.

Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.

Winds:  The potential for a high wind event today and tonight remains high. Along the east side of the valley north of Kern County, winds in the 25 to 35 mph range are likely, especially this afternoon and evening with gusts to 45 mph likely. Along the western side Fresno, Merced and much of Kings County, sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph would not be a surprise with gusts possibly reaching 55 mph this afternoon and evening. Over the valley portion of Kern County, expect winds out of the southeast at 35 to 45 mph sustained with gusts to possibly 60 mph as far north as Bakersfield. Near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, wind gusts to near 80 mph are possible. Places like Arvin, Edison, and Wheeler Ridge, Taft, Belridge could potentially see gusts to 80 mph from this afternoon through the evening hours. The pressure gradient will begin to relax somewhat later this evening and, as it does, wind velocities will slowly decrease, as well. After midnight, winds will decrease to 30 mph with stronger gusts, backing off to 8 to 15 mph Monday through Tuesday with stronger gusts near showers.

Rain: Already during the overnight and early morning hours, there has been a rain shadow which has kept precipitation amounts quite light so far. Only about a tenth to a quarter of an inch has been measured at most locations. Precipitation amounts from this point on will depend on the rain shadow over the valley facing sides of the Coast Range and the Kern County mountains. Computer models generally have the east side of the valley receiving 1 to 2 inches between now and Wednesday. Somewhat lesser amounts can be expected along the west side and in Kern County. There are models out there which show dry weather beginning as early as Thursday while others show a slight risk of showers over the valley floor. What is clear is that after Tuesday night, the pattern is such that lighter rain will be evident for the remainder of the week with dry weather this weekend and for several days thereafter.  

Frost: All locations will remain above freezing for at least the next week to ten days.  

Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .42, Parlier, .44, Arvin .52, Delano .50.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Arvin NA, Delano 56  

Average Temperatures: 59/39,  Record Temperatures: 77/28

Heating  Degree Days Season.  1187 -458  varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno .3.68, Monthly  .88

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 3.48, Monthly:  .87

Average Temperature this Month 53.5 +4.8 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 663  Arvin, 589 Belridge, 579 Shafter, 636 Stratford, 642 Delano 658.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 6:59.  Sunset, 5:27 hours of daylight, 10:29

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather: 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  56 /  48 /  0.18 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  57 /  49 /  0.14 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  56 /  49 /  0.17 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  58 /  50 /  0.23 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  57 /  48 /  0.29 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  60 /  50 /  0.06 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  57 /  49 /     M /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  59 /  49 /  0.03 /  

Rainfall:                                     24hr        2024          %          l.y.               %                  ave              Yearly ave                                                                                                                               

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.81   105   15.57   209     7.44    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    9.33   141   13.43   202     6.64    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    7.05   114   12.92   209     6.17    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    4.61    84    4.86    89     5.46    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    3.63    65    9.20   165     5.58    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    3.78    91    6.81   164     4.14     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.42   107    4.32   135     3.20     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.87    34    8.57   336     2.55     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.98   109    0.39    43     0.90     2.20

SALINAS                          T    5.91    86    8.97   131     6.87    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.02   10.19   159   12.82   200     6.40    12.15

SANTA MARIA                      T    5.96    89   13.35   198     6.73    13.32