February 5, 2024
Summary: Unfortunately, the atmospheric river of air is not moving and is channeling heavy amounts of rain right through Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Sadly, the flooding taking place there now will be aggravated further by constant mid to heavy rain through midday Tuesday when the flow begins to weaken and shift eastward. The valley has been in a dry slot all morning but that is now beginning to change. Showers are breaking out over the Coast Range and will move southwest to northeast while new showers form. The fact that there is a cold pool of air over northern and central California means thunderstorm development is more likely this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms may have hail and localized heavy rain. With a freezing level of 5,600 feet, these storms will not have to climb to too high of an elevation for hail development. Once this whole mess moves eastward, a lingering trough of low pressure will remain along the west coast through Friday. In fact, a weak secondary disturbance shows up just off the central coast Wednesday and Wednesday night which could trigger more showers, mainly over the mountain areas. I’ll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast all the way through Friday. If models cooperate, a prolonged period of dry weather will begin Saturday and last through next week. the latest GFS model shows dry weather all the way through the 18th before a strong storm breaks through.
Forecast: Showers at times this afternoon through Tuesday night with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. a slight chance of showers Thursday through Friday. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday with patches of fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/55/43/56 | Reedley 45/55/42/57 | Dinuba 43/56/42/56 |
| Porterville 48/57/43/57 | Lindsay 45/56/42/57 | Delano 48/57/45/57 |
| Bakersfield 49/56/46/56 | Taft 49/52/45/54 | Arvin 48/57/45/57 |
| Lamont 46/58/43/56 | Pixley 45/55/43/55 | Tulare 44/55/42/56 |
| Woodlake 47/57/41/56 | Hanford 47/57/44/57 | Orosi 45/56/41/56 |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today at around 5 to 12 mph. Stronger gusts are possible in the vicinity of showers and especially thunderstorms. For Tuesday through Thursday, expect variable winds generally in the 5 to 12 mph range with locally stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers.
Rain: The bulk of the heavy precipitation has been pounding southern California today. However, showers are breaking out over the Coast Range and will move northeastward into the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. With breaks in the overcast, daytime heating will also spawn isolated thunderstorms. With a freezing level of just 5, 600 feet, no doubt small hail and localized heavy rain will be the result. A persistent trough of cold low pressure will remain over California through Friday. Embedded within this trough will be a weak surface low Wednesday and Wednesday night which will maintain a low chance of showers all the way through Friday. A dry pattern will set up this weekend and continue through the first half of next week if not beyond.
Frost: A relatively cold air mass will remain in place over California from Friday through Sunday. Any night with clear skies will see temperatures drop into the 30s. A few of very coldest locations from Friday through Monday could drop down to 30-32, but the vast majority of locations will be in the mid 30s to near 40. Still nothing on model information suggesting particularly cold weather on the horizon.