February 5, 2024
Summary: Satellite imagery this hour continues to show a very complex, deep low stretching from northern California southwestward out to sea. The center of the surface low has drifted northward and is centered just west of Eureka this morning. Even though the atmospheric river has detached from the main low, it is still moving from southwest to northeast at Ventura on the north to San Diego on the south. Southern California has picked up tremendous amounts of rain. Three to six inches has been accumulated in San Diego and Ventura Counties with two to five inches in the Los Angeles basin and even more in the surrounding mountains. Even though the weather has settled down in the valley, satellite imagery shows tremendous instability over the eastern Pacific just off shore. This area will move onshore during the late morning and afternoon with numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms once the daytime heating process gets underway. Showers will continue into Tuesday night then will begin to slowly decrease late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models are picking up on another impulse moving inland Wednesday night then a weak trough of low pressure will simply linger for a slight chance of showers Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, high pressure will finally begin to build in over northern California, resulting in a prolonged period of dry weather.
Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers this morning. showers at times this afternoon through Tuesday night with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. a slight chance of showers Thursday through Friday. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Monday with patches of fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/48/57/43/57 | Reedley 64/45/56/44/57 | Dinuba 62/44/56/42/56 |
| Porterville 64/45/56/45/56 | Lindsay 63/46/57/43/58 | Delano 64/47/56/44/56 |
| Bakersfield 63/48/57/47/57 | Taft 57/47/53/44/54 | Arvin 64/47/59/46/57 |
| Lamont 64/48/57/45/58 | Pixley 64/45/56/43/56 | Tulare 62/46/56/43/56 |
| Woodlake 62/45/57/44/57 | Hanford 63/47/58/45/57 | Orosi 62/46/56/43/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Slight chance of showers 40/56 | Friday Slight chance of showers 36/57 | Saturday Partly cloudy 38/58 | Sunday Mostly clear 35/57 | Monday Mostly clear 36/61 |
Two Week Forecast: February 11 through February 17: For the first time in more than two weeks, this model is projecting a dry forecast. Temperatures during this time frame should be near average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast today at around 5 to 12 mph. Stronger gusts are possible in the vicinity of showers and especially thunderstorms. For Tuesday through Thursday, expect variable winds generally in the 5 to 12 mph range with locally stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers.
Rain: It was not a surprise to see a rain shadow develop which covered much of Tulare and Kern Counties where rain was rather sparse. Some storm totals as of 4:00 this morning: Delano .19, Bakersfield .17, Wasco .20, Visalia .62, Hanford .47, Lemoore .63, Dinuba .64, Fresno .70, Madera .62, Merced .53. even though we’re in a lull this morning, this storm is by no means over. Satellite imagery shows a great deal of instability just off shore which will be moving inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. Once daytime heating gets underway, numerous showers will break out. High resolution models also indicate a chance of isolated thunderstorms exists any time from late morning through Tuesday. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by small hail and heavy rain. A weak trough of low pressure will remain along the west coast through Friday. Most of the shower activity will be confined to the mountain areas. Still, we’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast Thursday through Friday. The weekend is shaping up to be a dry one with dry weather lasting well into next week.
Frost: A relatively cold air mass will remain in place over California from Friday through Sunday. Any night with clear skies will see temperatures drop into the 30s. A few of very coldest locations from Friday through Monday could drop down to 30-32, but the vast majority of locations will be in the mid 30s to near 40. Still nothing on model information suggesting particularly cold weather on the horizon.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .40, Parlier, .38, Arvin .56, Delano .50.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Arvin NA, Delano 56
Average Temperatures: 59/39, Record Temperatures: 76/23
Heating Degree Days Season. 1194 -464 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .4.19, Monthly 1.39
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.48, Monthly: .87
Average Temperature this Month 54.5 +5.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 672 Arvin, 591 Belridge, 536 Shafter, 637 Stratford, 642 Delano 661. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:57. Sunset, 5:29 hours of daylight, 10:31
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 60 / 53 / 0.41 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 61 / 54 / 0.42 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 52 / 0.39 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 50 / 0.23 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 61 / 48 / 0.46 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 67 / 55 / 0.08 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 51 / 0.10 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.38 8.30 110 15.63 208 7.53 13.45
MODESTO 0.30 9.73 145 13.50 201 6.72 12.27
MERCED 0.50 7.64 122 13.03 208 6.25 11.80
MADERA 0.49 5.17 93 4.86 88 5.53 10.79
FRESNO 0.32 4.00 71 9.23 163 5.65 10.99
HANFORD 0.23 4.15 99 6.90 165 4.18 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.02 3.50 108 4.32 133 3.24 6.36
BISHOP 0.40 1.27 49 8.57 332 2.58 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.98 107 0.39 42 0.92 2.20
SALINAS 0.93 7.17 103 9.00 129 6.96 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.86 11.37 175 12.87 198 6.49 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.79 6.86 101 13.47 198 6.82 13.32