February 7, 2024
Summary: Showers over the past few hours have been mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills and along the extreme eastern San Joaquin Valley. Finally, the heavy precipitation over southern California has ended and has broken up into mainly light showers. Today and tonight will be the last active period we’ll see for a while. Latest models show the atmosphere stabilizing Thursday and Friday. There is one more disturbance to content with which currently is located off the northwest California coast. This system is quite cold and is a fast mover. Showers will again pick up during the late morning and afternoon hours today. The balloon sounding over Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of just 4,200 feet so no doubt snow will fall down to roughly 3,500 feet today and tonight. The trough of low pressure responsible for all the newsworthy weather the past several days will linger through Friday. In the wake of the low, the air mass is quite cold. Coldest locations Friday through Monday mornings will dip into the low to mid30s, however no general frost or freeze episode will occur. Upper level high pressure ridging from off the northern California coast to off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will build inland over the weekend, ushering in a prolonged period of dry weather. It still appears another major shift in the pattern will begin on the 18th. This is the fourth day in a row the GFS model shows a large low off the California coast and yes, it has an AR attached to it.
Forecast: A chance of showers this morning. showers becoming likely this afternoon and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/37/54/34/55 | Reedley 57/39/54/35/55 | Dinuba 56/38/54/38/56 |
| Porterville 57/39/53/35/55 | Lindsay 55/37/53/34/55 | Delano 57/40/53/36/56 |
| Bakersfield 57/42/52/38/54 | Taft 53/40/51/41/50 | Arvin 57/40/54/38/56 |
| Lamont 57/41/54/37/56 | Pixley 55/37/53/36/55 | Tulare 57/39/55/36/54 |
| Woodlake 55/39/54/34/55 | Hanford 56/38/54/38/55 | Orosi 55/37/54/34/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Mostly clear 33/55 | Sunday Mostly clear 33/57 | Monday Mostly clear 36/61 | Tuesday Mostly clear 37/61 | Wednesday Mostly clear 36/63 |
Two Week Forecast: February 14 through February 20: This model is reverting back to a wet forecast for the southern 2/3 of California. Not only does the forecast a wet period, but it also shows temperatures rising above average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 12 mph range through Saturday. Local gusts to 20 mph are possible near showers today and tonight.
Rain: The last trough of low pressure to move out of the parent trough is now rapidly moving through northern California. Showers will spread down the valley later today, continuing tonight. This system is quite cold and, with the buoyancy of the atmosphere combined with the daytime heating effect, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. I feel safe taking the chance of showers out of the forecast for Thursday and Friday, which means we’ll have a prolonged period of dry weather.
Frost: The weather system that will move through today and tonight is quite cold. In fact, the freezing level is just 4,200 feet. As skies clear, temperatures will fall overnight into the low to mid 30s Friday morning through Monday. it’s possible a few riverbottom type locations could drop into the upper 20s. by Tuesday morning, the air mass will have modified for all locations to be above freezing. Still nothing on models to show particularly cold weather pattern longer term.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .36, Parlier, .35, Arvin .49, Delano .49.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Arvin NA, Delano 56
Average Temperatures: 59/39, Record Temperatures: 74/24
Heating Degree Days Season. 1203 -471 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .4.30, Monthly 1.50
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.58, Monthly: .97
Average Temperature this Month 54.7 +5.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 672 Arvin, 591 Belridge, 587 Shafter, 636 Stratford, 652 Delano 661. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:56. Sunset, 5:30 hours of daylight, 10:33
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 51 / 0.34 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 51 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 50 / 0.11 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 66 / 51 / 0.32 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 50 / 0.24 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 60 / 48 / 0.15 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 65 / 50 / 0.55 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 67 / 49 / 0.04 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.05 8.43 111 15.75 207 7.62 13.45
MODESTO 0.42 10.15 149 13.54 199 6.80 12.27
MERCED 0.04 7.68 122 13.47 213 6.32 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.17 92 5.14 92 5.60 10.79
FRESNO T 4.19 73 9.83 172 5.71 10.99
HANFORD T 4.24 100 6.99 165 4.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.04 3.56 109 4.49 137 3.28 6.36
BISHOP 0.41 2.89 111 8.73 334 2.61 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 1.14 121 0.39 41 0.94 2.20
SALINAS 0.60 7.53 107 9.13 130 7.05 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.14 11.53 175 12.94 197 6.58 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.04 6.95 100 13.61 197 6.92 13.32