We will be out of the office this afternoon, February 13, 2024. Reports will resume bright and early February 14.
February 13, 2024
Summary Weak upper level high pressure is centered right over California this morning. Skies are generally clear with temperatures in the 30s. Only the very coldest river bottom type locations are in the lower 30s. The next weather system of note will arrive Wednesday night and Thursday. This system is now looking a little stronger than earlier indicated so we’re going to extend the chance of light showers all the way down the valley for Wednesday night and Thursday. A temporary ridge will build in Friday and Friday night for a temporary period of dry weather. An extended period of active weather will begin Saturday as a massive low pressure system approaches the coast with generally light rain for Saturday and Sunday. The second system will arrive Monday and this one is considerably stronger. By Monday afternoon, the center of the surface low will be roughly 200 miles west of San Francisco. Tightly wound isobars wrap around the low. Isobars are lines of equal pressure on the weather map. This will set up a rather steep pressure gradient between Nevada and the off shore low. Gusty winds in the south valley are likely to occur Monday into Tuesday. The heaviest rain from this system will arrive Monday into Tuesday. An atmospheric river of air is also associated with this system which potentially could produce some significant precipitation, depending on wear the AR happens to come on shore. By Wednesday and Thursday, this system is projected to move slowly down the coast, extending the chance of showers into Thursday of next week. Upper-level high pressure finally begins to build in Friday for several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Other than patchy fog, it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Wednesday. A chance of light showers late Wednesday night through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday night. periods of rain Saturday through Tuesday, locally heavy Monday through Tuesday. Possibly breezy to windy Monday into Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/35/63/38/65 | Reedley 64/36/64/38/65 | Dinuba 62/35/63/37/64 |
| Porterville 64/36/64/38/65 | Lindsay 63/34/64/40/65 | Delano 64/37/64/41/65 |
| Bakersfield 65/41/65/44/66 | Taft 60/45/61/46/61 | Arvin 64/38/63/41/65 |
| Lamont 65/38/63/41/66 | Pixley 63/38/63/39/65 | Tulare 62/36/63/38/65 |
| Woodlake 62/34/64/37/63 | Hanford 63/37/64/41/65 | Orosi 63/35/64/40/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Increasing clouds 44/65 | Saturday Periods of rain 49/66 | Sunday Periods of rain 49/66 | Monday Rain/wind 48/67 | Tuesday Rain likely 50/67 |
Two Week Forecast: February 19 through February 26: There is a 70% to 80% chance of above average precipitation during this time frame. In fact, modeling appears similar to that which produced all the wild weather recently. These storms will likely have a pineapple connection, resulting in above average temperatures.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of calm conditions through Friday. We’re still looking down the road at some possible strong winds late Monday into Tuesday. Models still indicate a strong difference in pressure between Nevada and off shore California. This still means there’s a chance of strong winds for the Kern County portion of the valley and up the west side.
Rain: A weak weather system will move through the valley Wednesday night and Thursday. On paper, the dynamics are pretty weak but it still may be enough for strong winds down the valley. Friday and Friday night will be dry then the first of two weather systems will bring rain in Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall amounts over the weekend should be fairly light with generally between a quarter and a half inch along the east side with lesser amounts elsewhere. By far the strongest of these two systems will arrive Monday into Tuesday. This will be a full blown winter storm so we will be dealing with rain shadows. However, the potential for significant rain in the valley and heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada will be with us possibly into Wednesday. The low will finally track southward late Wednesday for several days of dry weather thereafter.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .40, Parlier, .38, Arvin .46, Delano .48.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Arvin 58, Delano 53
Average Temperatures: 61/40, Record Temperatures: 81/24
Heating Degree Days Season. 1314 -467 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.15, Monthly 2.35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 51.3 +2.0 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 726 Arvin, 629 Belridge, 640 Shafter, 689 Stratford, 710 Delano 712. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:49. Sunset, 5:38 hours of daylight, 10:47
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 38 / 0.02 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 9.07 110 15.75 191 8.24 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 11.36 155 13.54 184 7.35 12.27
MERCED 0.00 8.70 127 13.47 197 6.83 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.80 96 5.14 85 6.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.15 83 9.83 159 6.18 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.10 112 6.99 153 4.57 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.25 119 4.50 126 3.56 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.10 110 8.73 310 2.82 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 225 0.39 37 1.06 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.28 108 9.26 121 7.64 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.97 167 13.07 182 7.17 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.42 110 13.61 178 7.63 13.32