The regular report will return tomorrow, February 15.
February 14 2024
Summary A rather fragmented area of low pressure is approaching the northern California coast. Already this morning, light showers are falling along the north coast and will spread over the northern portion of California as the day wears on. This system will weaken further but still has achance to spread light showers down the valley from this evening through the overnight hours. Any precipitation amounts will be quite light. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Thursday resulting in dry weather Friday and Friday night and possibly most of Saturday. There are two more Pacific storms that will affect central California. One will begin Saturday evening and the other will set up shop Monday. This first system is what I would characterize as a typical winter storm. Periods of rain will spread over the district Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening with periods of rain through Saturday night. this system will drop anywhere from a quarter to a half inch from Fresno County southward to a Tulare/Kern County line. Lighter amounts can be expected along the west side and in Kern County. The second storm is stronger and could potentially drop a more significant amount of rain over central California. A rather weak looking AR shows up from about the Bay Area on the north to San Luis Obispo on the south. It’s this path that will receive the heaviest rain. The chance of a wind event looks less likely this morning. the storm never really will move inland. It just hangs off shore then moves slowly southward off shore and becomes fragmented by Thursday. I put the chance of a severe wind event in the south valley at around 30% or so. Dry weather will return Friday and will last a while, though that’s a low confidence forecast due to the fact this same system will just hang off shore through the weekend, but for now we’ll go with dry weather.
Forecast: increasing cloudiness today. A chance of showers tonight. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. showers late Saturday and Saturday night. showers at times Sunday through Sunday night. rain at times Monday through Wednesday.
Temperatures: high temperatures today will warm into the mid 60s. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s. highs Thursday wil be in the mid 60s. Lows Thursday night will be in the low 40s. highs Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s.