February 15, 2024
Summary: There is a great deal of low clouds left over from last night’s frontal passage. At 1:00pm, the base of the overcast at Madera was 2,000 feet while at Porterville the overcast was based at 3,300 feet at 2,300 feet at Visalia. These clouds may not burn off on the eastern and southern portions of the valley until late tonight or even Friday morning. Above the low clouds is a higher cloud deck which is increasing from Merced County north and will also overspread the remainder of the valley tonight. These clouds are ahead of a major winter storm still well off the California coast. Currently, there’s a weak ridge of high pressure above California which will maintain a dry forecast through Saturday and possibly even Saturday evening. Models this afternoon are pointing towards wetter conditions with storm number two which will arrive Sunday afternoon and will not be completely finished with our weather until Wednesday night or possibly even Thursday. The low is forecast to approach the northern California coast Sunday night or Monday morning. On this afternoon’s surface model, a nice atmospheric river of air is projected to move on shore from Vandenburg AFB on the south to Monterey on the north. That puts central California in the bull’s’ eye for heavy precipitation. The River Forecast Center in Sacramento has impressive amounts of precipitation forecast between the 15th and 21st of February. This model depicts Fresno, Madera, and Merced Counties with 2 to 3 inches of precipitation with much of Tulare County at an inch and a half to two inches and between a half inch to one inch in Kern County. There are already flood watches up for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where four to eight inches of precipitation is forecast between Sunday afternoon and Wednesday morning. what makes this storm so strong is the fact it will be a cut off system which will basically remain sitting off shore from Sunday night through Wednesday with surges of rain moving inland from time to time. By Thursday, the low will finally move inland then will eventually be replaced by a weaker system off the northern California coast.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy tonight through Friday with patchy fog. Mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday. A chance of rain at times by late Saturday evening, rain becoming likely after midnight. Rain at times Sunday through Wednesday, locally heavy at times Sunday night through Tuesday night north of Kern County. A chance of showers Wednesday night. partly to mostly cloudy Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/66/47/68 | Reedley 43/67/46/67 | Dinuba 43/65/46/66 |
| Porterville 43/67/45/67 | Lindsay 42/66/46/68 | Delano 44/66/47/69 |
| Bakersfield 46/67/49/70 | Taft 47/62/50/65 | Arvin 44/66/46/67 |
| Lamont 46/67/47/69 | Pixley 43/66/46/68 | Tulare 42/65/45/67 |
| Woodlake 42/66/45/67 | Hanford 44/67/46/69 | Orosi 43/65/46/67 |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Winds tonight will be light to near calm. Winds Saturday through Monday will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers. There is a risk of strong, gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday. This morning’s models have the low’s center further north along the northern California coast. This will generally reduce the risk of a high wind event. Models have been placing the center of circulation in distinctly different locations off the northern and central California coast. Placement of this feature is crucial in determining the wind’s strength and direction. For now, we’ll put at least a small chance of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in the south valley in the forecast and 40 mph along the west side of the valley.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Saturday and possibly Saturday evening. Periods of generally light rain will overspread the valley, especially Saturday night. Basically, we can expect periods of rain Saturday and at times through Wednesday. Rain may be locally at times from Sunday evening through Tuesday. This is another major storm so a rain shadow can be expected over the Kern County portion of the valley which may extend northeastward, possibly encompassing parts of Tulare County, as well. If this occurs, amounts of precipitation will be greatly less in Kern County and possibly Tulare County. The River Forecast Center in Sacramento has impressive amounts of precipitation forecast between the 15th and 21st of February. This model depicts Fresno, Madera, and Merced Counties with 2 to 3 inches of precipitation with much of Tulare County at an inch and a half to two inches and between a half inch to one inch in Kern County. There are already flood watches up for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where four to eight inches of precipitation is forecast between Sunday afternoon and Wednesday morning. What makes this storm so strong is the fact it will be a cut off system which will basically remain sitting off shore from Sunday night through Wednesday with surges of rain moving inland from time to time.
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.