February 15, 2024
Summary The trailing end of a weak cold front is now exiting the valley. The showers we experienced overnight have mainly moved into the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure off shore will temporarily build in from the eastern Pacific for dry weather which will possibly hold until Saturday. The first of two major Pacific storms will be off the California coast and will spread precipitation in from the west by early Saturday evening. This system is very large in scope with an atmospheric river of air attached to it which will move on shore into mainly northern California Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday morning, a deep surface low at 982 millibars will be off the northern California coast. This system will also be connected to an AR which will move onshore further south. Our best chance at significant precipitation will be Monday and Tuesday. The low will move inland Tuesday for improving weather, however a weaker impulse will move in Thursday for a chance of light showers. For now, next weekend looks dry as a weak ridge pushes in from the west.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Mostly clear tonight through Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday. Showers spreading in from the west Saturday. Periods of showers Sunday through Tuesday night. a chance of showers Tuesday night. a slight chance of showers Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/40/66/45/67 | Reedley 66/40/66/47/67 | Dinuba 64/40/66/45/66 |
| Porterville 67/39/66/45/68 | Lindsay 65/39/66/45/67 | Delano 67/42/66/47/67 |
| Bakersfield 67/45/67/50/68 | Taft 62/47/62/51/65 | Arvin 67/42/66/48/68 |
| Lamont 66/42/67/46/68 | Pixley 64/39/66/49/67 | Tulare 64/38/66/45/66 |
| Woodlake 65/40/66/46/67 | Hanford 67/41/66/46/66 | Orosi 64/39/66/45/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Showers likely 51/68 | Monday Showers likely 51/71 | Tuesday Rain likely 49/66 | Wednesday Chance of showers 44/65 | Thursday Slight chance of showers 41/62 |
Two Week Forecast: February 22 through February 28: This model is not nearly as bullish on the idea of precipitation spreading down the central valley, although it doesn’t completely eliminate the chance of rain. It does appear we’re heading into a drier pattern. temperatures are expected to be near to marginally below average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Winds tonight will be light to near calm. Winds Saturday through Monday will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers. There is a risk of strong, gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday. This morning’s models have the low’s center further north along the northern California coast. This will generally reduce the risk of a high wind event. Models have been placing the center of circulation in distinctly different locations off the northern and central California coast. Placement of this feature is crucial in determining the wind’s strength and direction. For now, we’ll put at least a small chance of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in the south valley in the forecast and 40 mph along the west side of the valley.
Rain: The chance of rain from the current storm is about over. Expect dry weather from now through Saturday. Showers will begin to spread in from the west Saturday and will continue at times through Sunday night. a second, stronger, system will arrive Monday. this storm and its center of circulation is a bit further north than had earlier been indicated. It appeared an AR will move into northern California Monday into Tuesday. Regardless of where it sets up, precipitation will be wide spread. Another much weaker system may result in another chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Beyond that, models point to dry weather.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .50, Parlier, .49, Arvin .55, Delano .55.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52, Arvin 58, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 61/40, Record Temperatures: 79/24
Heating Degree Days Season. 1342 -467 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.15, Monthly 2.35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 51.2 +1.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 748 Arvin, 651 Belridge, 658 Shafter, 707 Stratford, 710 Delano 735. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:46. Sunset, 5:40 hours of daylight, 10:51
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 50 / 0.40 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 49 / 0.21 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 50 / 0.16 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 62 / 50 / 0.13 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 49 / 0.09 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 64 / 51 / 0.08 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 62 / 48 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 48 / 0.12 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.01 9.08 108 15.75 187 8.42 13.45
MODESTO T 11.36 151 13.56 181 7.51 12.27
MERCED 0.00 8.70 124 13.48 193 6.99 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.80 93 5.14 83 6.21 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.15 82 9.83 156 6.31 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.10 109 6.99 149 4.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.25 116 4.50 123 3.65 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.10 107 8.73 302 2.89 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 216 0.39 35 1.10 2.20
SALINAS T 8.28 106 9.27 119 7.81 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.97 163 13.07 178 7.35 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.42 107 13.61 174 7.84 13.32