February 17, 2024
Summary One of the biggest keys in figuring out precipitation patterns and rain shadows will be just where the atmospheric rivers of air move inland. Typically these ARs are only 150 or so miles wide. The first such AR is moving on shore now from Monterey on the south to the north bay counties. Satellite imagery shows a swath of moisture running from the big island of Hawaii northeastward to northcentral California. We probably will not receive much precipitation from this first system, however between Sunday afternoon and early Tuesday the second and much stronger AR will arrive. Quantitative precipitation estimates for the northern half of the valley indicate possibly 2 to 3 inches of rain from Fresno County north along the east side. The third AR will move onshore Tuesday and Tuesday evening. This one appears to be more dangerous for southern California. By late Wednesday, upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west, resulting in several days of dry weather from the weekend through the first several days of next week. the new GFS model this morning indicates the possibility of another storm arriving around the 26th.
Forecast: A chance of light showers north of Kern County this morning. otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy. Rain spreading over the valley from the west/southwest by mid afternoon. Periods of rain tonight. A chance of showers Sunday morning then rain at times later Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. showers likely Wednesday morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/49/70/53/66 | Reedley 66/50/68/54/65 | Dinuba 65/49/67/43/64 |
| Porterville 68/50/70/54/68 | Lindsay 67/50/68/53/68 | Delano 67/51/70/54/67 |
| Bakersfield 68/53/71/55/69 | Taft 65/52/64/55/64 | Arvin68/51/70/54/67 |
| Lamont 68/49/71/55/68 | Pixley 64/47/70/53/66 | Tulare 64/48/67/52/66 |
| Woodlake 65/50/67/53/67 | Hanford 66/50/68/54/65 | Orosi 64/50/66/52/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Periods of rain 48/66 | Wednesday Showers likely 48/67 | Thursday Partly cloudy 41/62 | Friday Mostly clear 42/63 | Saturday Mostly clear 39/64 |
Two Week Forecast: February 24 through February 29: This model indicates that weather systems may move into California from the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. This model shows a 60% chance of above average rain.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph today and tonight with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday through Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times. Gusts to 30 mph are possible along the west side and along the east side from Madera County north. There is a roughly 30% chance of gusty winds in the extreme south valley Sunday afternoon through Monday with gusts possibly reaching 45 mph, mainly near the base of the Kern County mountains.
Rain: Light showers are possible this morning, mainly from Fresno County north. Rain will begin to spread in from the west/southwest by late afternoon or so. Expect rain at times tonight with a chance of showers Sunday, mainly during the morning. rain will again overspread the valley, mainly during the afternoon, with periods of rain Sunday night through Tuesday night. There will be a good chance of showers Wednesday, tapering off by later in the day. Expect dry weather Wednesday night and through the remainder of the week. rainfall amounts in eastern Merced, Madera, and Fresno Counties could range between 2-3 inches from now through Wednesday. Models indicate a strong rain shadow in the south valley. Even so, Tulare County will pick up between 1-1 ½ with only ½ to 1 inch in Kern County.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .53, Parlier, .51, Arvin .61, Delano .57.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52, Arvin 58, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 62/41, Record Temperatures: 84/29
Heating Degree Days Season. 1364 -473 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.31, Monthly 2.51
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 51.8 +1.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 757 Arvin, 660 Belridge, 666 Shafter, 716 Stratford, 739 Delano 744. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:44. Sunset, 5:42 hours of daylight, 10:56
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 64 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 9.18 107 15.75 183 8.61 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 11.76 153 13.56 177 7.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 9.10 127 13.48 188 7.16 11.80
MADERA 0.00 6.01 95 5.14 81 6.35 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.31 82 9.83 152 6.45 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.23 109 6.99 146 4.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.33 116 4.50 121 3.73 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.10 105 8.73 296 2.95 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 209 0.39 34 1.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.57 107 9.27 116 7.99 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.03 160 13.07 174 7.53 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.47 105 13.61 169 8.05 13.32