February 18, 2024
Summary The first phase of a very active weather pattern went through last night. as expected, rainfall amounts from this system were fairly light, ranging from .08 at Madera to .22 at Lemoore and Hanford. This next storm will be a full blown winter storm event. Satellite imagery indicates this system is enjoying rapid intensification. This system has an atmospheric river of air extending from Hawaii to just off the central coast. From late this afternoon through Monday, this AR will move from southwest to northeast and will come on shore from Ventura County on the south to Monterey on the north. Precipitation estimates from the River Forecast Center estimate between 4-6 inches of rain will fall over the Sierra Nevada below roughly 6,000 feet. From late this afternoon through Wednesday, the southwest facing mountain ranges near San Luis Obispo will pick up 4 to 6 inches with some favored southwest facing mountain ranges picking up around 10 inches. Vally rainfall estimates are discussed in the rainfall summary below. The center of circulation from this storm will just hang off the northern California coast through Wednesday. Pieces of energy will continue to move inland through the entire period with a chance of thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon. The low will finally weaken and move inland by Wednesday evening, bringing precipitation to a close. Interestingly enough, another low center will hang off shore through the weekend, moving inland Monday and Tuesday for a chance of more rain early next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning. increasing clouds this afternoon. Rain spreading in from the west by late afternoon or early evening. Rain at times Sunday night through Tuesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers Wednesday, tapering off in the late afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/53/65/50/65 | Reedley 70/54/66/50/65 | Dinuba 68/53/65/50/66 |
| Porterville 71/54/67/51/67 | Lindsay 70/52/66/50/65 | Delano 70/55/65/51/65 |
| Bakersfield 73/56/67/55/67 | Taft 67/55/63/52/63 | Arvin 71/54/67/51/66 |
| Lamont 72/56/67/53/67 | Pixley 71/52/65/49/65 | Tulare 68/52/65/50/65 |
| Woodlake 69/53/65/50/65 | Hanford 69/54/65/50/66 | Orosi 69/52/65/49/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday Showers 48/65 | Thursday Partly cloudy 41/62 | Friday Mostly clear 39/63 | Saturday Partly cloudy 43/66 | Sunday Partly cloudy 43/63 |
Two Week Forecast: February 25 through March 2: This model indicates that weather systems may move into California from the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. This model shows a 60% chance of above average rain.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Pressure gradients will really begin to tighten up through Monday, between a strong low center off the northern California coast and higher pressure over the interior west. Along the east side of the valley north of Kern County, winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Along the west side, winds will increase mainly out of the southeast at 25 to 35 mph with gusts possibly as high as 45 mph. In Kern County, as usual the winds will be strongest near the base of the Tehachapis where winds will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 20 to 40 mph. gusts to 55 mph cannot be ruled out tonight and during the day Monday. winds will begin to subside in all areas Monday night, generally ranging from 10 to 20 mph with stronger winds at the base of the Kern County Mountains.
Rain: Rain will again spread in from the west by mid to late afternoon. This round beginning tonight will be much heavier with possibly as much as 2-3 inches over Madera and Merced Counties between tonight and Wednesday evening. In Fresno County, 1 ½ to 2 inches seems plausible with 1-1 3/4 with just ½ to 1 inch in Kern County. Rainfall amounts in Kern and, to a lesser extent Tulare County will likely be reduced by a strong rain shadow along the valley facing mountains of the Coast Range and the Kern County Mountains. On many occasions, I’ve seen very little rain fall over the valley portion of the Kern County mountains while fairly heavy amounts fall over the Kern County mountains.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .53, Parlier, .51, Arvin .61, Delano .57.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52, Arvin 58, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 62/41, Record Temperatures: 84/29
Heating Degree Days Season. 1364 -473 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.31, Monthly 2.51
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 51.8 +1.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 757 Arvin, 660 Belridge, 666 Shafter, 716 Stratford, 739 Delano 744. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:44. Sunset, 5:42 hours of daylight, 10:56
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 64 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 9.18 107 15.75 183 8.61 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 11.76 153 13.56 177 7.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 9.10 127 13.48 188 7.16 11.80
MADERA 0.00 6.01 95 5.14 81 6.35 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.31 82 9.83 152 6.45 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.23 109 6.99 146 4.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.33 116 4.50 121 3.73 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.10 105 8.73 296 2.95 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 209 0.39 34 1.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.57 107 9.27 116 7.99 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.03 160 13.07 174 7.53 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.47 105 13.61 169 8.05 13.32