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February 19, 2024 report

February 19, 2024

Summary  An atmospheric river of air has been moving over the central coast then over the valley for much of the night. This has resulted  in significant precipitation. rainfall amounts have ranged from about .25 in t he south valley to as much as an inch in Fresno, Merced, and Madera Counties as of 4:00am. This AR will gradually shift east of valley by later this morning, allowing the rain to turn to showers along with a chance of thunderstorms. Satellite imagery depicts a great deal of instability in the air mass off the central coast. This will begin to move inland during the time of maximum daytime heating which will destabilize the atmosphere even more, resulting in at least isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. As more energy moves across the Pacific and into California, periodic episodes of showers and thunderstorms will occur. Beginning Wednesday, the low will finally shift eastward into the Great Basin, allowing the showers to wind down. Most of the measurable precipitation should come to an end by late Wednesday afternoon. Weak upper level high pressure will finally take over Wednesday night through Friday. A new low will approach the coast Friday night and Saturday. The low will eventually open up into a trough, resulting in a chance of showers late Saturday night through Monday. this feature will finally move into southern California early Tuesday for hopefully the beginning of a dry pattern.

Forecast: Rain at times this morning, possibly locally heavy at times. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Periods of rain at times tonigight through Tuesday night with a chance of thunderstorms. Showers gradually tapering off Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers Saturday night through Monday.

Short Term:                                                                                                              

Madera 65/44/65/46/63Reedley 67/45/66/46/64Dinuba 64/44/65/45/64
Porterville 67/47/66/46/64Lindsay 67/43/66/45/65Delano 68/46/66/47/64
Bakersfield 69/50/67/48/63Taft 62/47/58/47/57Arvin 68/48/64/45/64
Lamont 67/48/66/48/64Pixley 65/45/65/47/64Tulare 64/44/66/46/63
Woodlake 65/45/66/46/64Hanford 66/47/66/47/65Orosi 64/44/66/46/64

Seven Day Forecast

Thursday Mostly clear 40/63Friday Mostly clear 40/64Saturday Mostly cloudy 45/64Sunday Chance of showers 45/68Monday Chance of showers 45/64

Two Week Forecast:  February 26 through March 3: This model indicates that weather systems may move into California from the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. This model shows a 60% chance of above average rain.

Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.

Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.

Winds:  winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times along the eastern side of the valley north of Kern County. Winds in western Merced southward through Kings County will be out of the  southeast at 15 to 25 mph. local gusts to 45 mph are possible today. Winds in Kern County will be mainly out of the south to southwest at 15 to 25 mph at times. Gusts to near 50 cannot be ruled out in the extreme south today. Winds tonight through Wednesday night will be generally in the 8 to 15 mph range. Local gusts to near 25 are possible near thunderstorms. Winds Thursday will be generally at or less than 10mph.

Rain: The following are rainfall amounts as of 4:00am: Bakersfield .27, Mettler .20, Delano .28, Porterville .33, Exeter .36, Hanford .42, Lemoore .60, Fresno .71, Clovis 1.08, Madera .64, and Merced .88.  Rain will be fairly widespread for a time this morning then will taper off into showers and a reasonable chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. As more energy rolls off the Pacific and into California, periods of rain can be expected through Tuesday night. Wednesday is looking more and more like a transition day with a good chance of showers early in the day, tapering off as we move into afternoon hours. Currently, Thursday through Saturday look dry. However, a new low will position itself off the California coast. It will just park there, finally moving south Sunday, possibly moving in to southern California by Monday. This will give us  small chance of showers during the second half of the weekend and into early next week. we’ll hopefully move into a dry pattern beginning Tuesday.

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .47, Arvin .63, Delano .54.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 53, Arvin 59, Delano 53  

Average Temperatures: 62/41,  Record Temperatures: 79/28

Heating  Degree Days Season.  1378 -486  varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno .5.66, Monthly  2.46

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 4.59, Monthly:  1.98

Average Temperature this Month 52.2 +2.3 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 757  Arvin, 660 Belridge, 666 Shafter, 716 Stratford, 739 Delano 744.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 6:42.  Sunset, 5:44 hours of daylight, 10:58

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather: 

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  70 /  56 /  0.79 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  71 /  57 /  0.53 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  71 /  57 /  0.61 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  72 /  57 /  0.20 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  70 /  57 /  0.38 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  72 /  61 /  0.11 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  70 /  57 /     M /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  72 /  55 /  0.21 /

Rainfall:                                     24hr        2024          %          l.y.               %                  ave              Yearly ave                                                                                                                               

MERCED                        0.04    9.28   127   13.48   184     7.32    11.80

MADERA                        0.01    6.09    94    5.14    79     6.50    10.79

FRESNO                        0.01    5.40    82    9.83   149     6.60    10.99

HANFORD                       0.01    5.45   111    6.99   143     4.90     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.49   118    4.50   118     3.82     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    3.10   103    8.73   289     3.02     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    2.38   202    0.39    33     1.18     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    8.70   107    9.27   114     8.16    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.16   12.51   162   13.07   170     7.71    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.14    8.98   109   13.61   165     8.26    13.32