February 26, 2024
Summary Clouds are increasing ahead of a low pressure system roughly 500 miles to the west of Los Angeles. Sprinkles or isolated light showers are possible this morning then the chance of mostly light showers will increase this afternoon through the later night hours. This storm is fragmented and will not be a significant event. A ridge of high pressure will quickly follow Tuesday and will dominate our weather with generally seasonal conditions. Models continue to trend towards a major winter storm impacting central California Friday into Saturday. This system will have strong dynamics and strong lift over the Sierra Nevada for the potential of 3-4 feet of new snow over the higher elevations. This storm’s origins are from the Gulf of Alaska so snow levels in the mountains will start out at about 6,000 feet then plummet to around 2,000 to 3,000 feet by Saturday. On the valley floor, it’s possible one-half inch of rain and maybe more could fall north of Kern County. A colder air mass will engulf California behind this system. Temperatures may dive into the 30s by Monday morning for the chance of at least local frost which is discussed below. A weaker system will follow by the following Wednesday, however it’s unclear at this time if there will be enough upper level support for rain this far out.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning with a slight chance of isolated showers. A chance of light showers this afternoon and tonight. Partly cloudy Tuesday morning, becoming mostly clear in the afternoon. Mostly clear Tuesday nigh through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. rain becoming likely at times Friday through Saturday. A chance of rain Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday morning. becoming partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/46/64/40/68 | Reedley 70/47/65/39/67 | Dinuba 67/45/63/38/67 |
| Porterville 70/46/63/39/68 | Lindsay 69/44/63/38/68 | Delano 69/47/63/39/68 |
| Bakersfield 69/52/62/43/67 | Taft 63/51/55/44/62 | Arvin 70/47/64/40/68 |
| Lamont 71/46/64/41/69 | Pixley 68/47/64/41/68 | Tulare 67/45/62/38/67 |
| Woodlake 67/44/63/38/68 | Hanford 69/46/63/39/68 | Orosi 66/44/63/37/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Increasing clouds 44/68 | Friday PM rain 48/69 | Saturday Rain likely 46/63 | Sunday AM showers 37/66 | Monday Partly cloudy 34/55 |
Two Week Forecast: March 4 through March 10: An amplified pattern shows up during this period. A big cold trough of low pressure is projected to cover the western US with well above average temperatures east of the Rockies and well below average temperatures in the west, including California. The chance of rain is marginal during this period.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will generally be out of the northwest today and tonight at 5 to 12 mph. winds Tuesday will remain out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be generally less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions. By Thursday night, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: Sprinkles or a few light showers are possible. The chance of showers will be somewhat higher this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall amounts from the current system will probably be no more than a tenth or two, if that. Expect dry weather Tuesday through Thursday. By Friday a cold and rather dynamic looking weather system will spread rain and heavy mountain snow over central California. Rain will continue at times Friday night through Saturday. Preliminary quantitative precipitation estimates for the valley north of Kern County range from one-half to one inch with even some decent amounts of rain on the valley floor over Kern County. Showers will taper off Sunday with possibly a weaker system Tuesday and Wednesday.
Frost: There is no chance of frost this week. however, the air mass moving in behind a major storm system this weekend will cause temperatures to drop in the 30s Sunday through Tuesday morning. this air mass looks cold enough to introduce a minor chance of upper 20s in the coldest locations Monday through Tuesday. A major pattern shift will keep temperatures well below average next week. for now we’ll call for a chance of frost in the colder locations Monday and Tuesday and study modeling in the upcoming days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid 40s to near 50. Kern: Mid 40s to near 50.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .65, Parlier, .67, Arvin .65, Delano .69.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Arvin NA, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 64/42, Record Temperatures: 83/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 1437 -514 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .6.16, Monthly 3.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.83, Monthly: 2.22
Average Temperature this Month 53.4 +2.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 783 Arvin, 681 Belridge, 683 Shafter, 737 Stratford, 765 Delano 774. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:33. Sunset, 5:51 hours of daylight, 11:16
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 74 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 9.88 105 16.48 175 9.42 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.03 155 14.55 173 8.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 10.46 132 14.49 183 7.91 11.80
MADERA 0.00 6.91 98 6.63 94 7.04 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.16 87 12.86 181 7.11 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.97 113 10.15 192 5.28 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.83 117 6.58 159 4.13 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.09 125 9.63 295 3.26 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 180 0.88 67 1.32 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.40 107 9.84 112 8.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.98 167 15.12 181 8.36 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.93 121 16.51 183 9.00 13.32