February 28, 2024
Summary I continue to be intrigued by computer generated precipitation estimates. Between Thursday night and Sunday morning, in the Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains four to six inches of rain appears likely. Most of that will fall as snow as snow levels will initially begin at 6,000 feet and lower to 2,000-2,500 feet. This translates into four to six feet of new snow over the higher elevations. On the valley floor, it still appears between one and one and a half inches is possible along the east side. Kern County should pick up between one quarter and one half inch. The western side of the valley encompassing western Fresno and Kings Counties should record between one third and three quarters of an inch. Again, this is between Thursday night and Saturday night. In the broad picture, an intense trough of low pressure will extend from the Gulf of Alaska to central California. Bursts of energy will move out of the trough and into central California from time to time. This will all be supported by a 150 mph jet stream running from southwest to northeast across central California. By Sunday morning, the low will be far enough to the east to remove the chance of precipitation from the forecast. Temperatures Monday and possibly Tuesday morning will drop mainly into the mid to upper 30s. Most models continue to trend towards a second system arriving by the middle of next week, precluding any chance of below freezing temperatures. Low to mid 30s are possible Monday morning, but that’s only under the right conditions, which seems unlikely at this time. Medium range models keep the storm door open from the Gulf of Alaska, even after the middle of next week. The bottom line is, Thursday night will be the beginning of a prolonged period of active weather which will bode well for water supplies this summer.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight. Mostly clear Thursday with clouds increasing later in the day. Mostly cloudy Thursday night with a chance of rain from Fresno County north. Rain likely at times Friday through Saturday night. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday evenings. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday leading to a chance of showers. Showers likely Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will fall into the lower 40s, but into the mid 40s in Kern County. Highs Thursday will warm into the upper 60s and possibly the lower 70s, especially in Kern County. Lows Thursday night will cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. highs Friday will warm into the low to mid 60s.