March 1, 2024
Summary What some are describing as “the perfect storm” for the Sierra Nevada continues to unfold this morning. The parent low of this very cold system remains in the Gulf of Alaska this morning. satellite imagery depicts several secondary low pressure systems rotating around the main low and moving into Oregon and the northern half of California. Models are still showing epic amounts of snow between now through Sunday morning. from Kings Canyon north, 6 to 8 feet of new snow is expected with local amounts of 10 feet expected. The water equivalent of this is 6 to 8 inches of rain. In the valley, showers have reached as far south as Fresno County. As expected, a rain shadow is developing along the west side which will lessen rainfall totals on the valley floor, especially over the western and southern flanks of the valley. Precipitation will peak with this storm tonight through Saturday night, ending by roughly midday Sunday. Behind this system, moderately cold air will drop temperatures on the valley floor into the 30s, at least in the colder locations with a slight chance of upper 20s in the very coldest locations Monday and Tuesday mornings. The next weather system will arrive later Tuesday through Wednesday. This storm also originates in the Gulf of Alaska so snow levels will be pretty low. Yet another weaker system may follow towards next weekend. The GFS model, for the first time in a while, shows a strong high building over the eastern Pacific and western US around the 13th of March for the possible period of prolonged dry weather with above average temperatures. We’ll see if this model continues to trend in this direction.
Forecast: Rain likely at times through Saturday night. There is a slight risk of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Showers for a time Sunday morning, ending by midday. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon and night. becoming mostly clear Monday through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of showers Tuesday night through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/49/58/42/58 | Reedley 62/50/58/43/57 | Dinuba 61/48/58/43/57 |
| Porterville 64/50/59/43/58 | Lindsay 63/49/59/43/57 | Delano 65/50/60/44/58 |
| Bakersfield 66/52/60/45/58 | Taft 62/52/55/48/54 | Arvin 65/51/60/46/58 |
| Lamont 64/48/58/42/58 | Pixley 63/48/58/43/58 | Tulare 61/47/57/42/57 |
| Woodlake 62/48/57/47/57 | Hanford 63/49/58/45/57 | Orosi 62/47/57/43/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Partly cloudy 36/58 | Tuesday PM rain 37/59 | Wednesday Showers likely 40/61 | Thursday Chance of showers 41/61 | Friday Partly cloudy 38/62 |
Two Week Forecast: March 8 through March 14: This model has flip flopped from previous model runs. It now indicates there’s about a 40% chance of above average precipitation. Temperatures during this period will range below average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through tonight. Winds Saturday will continue to be mainly out of the east/southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Winds will decrease to around 8 to 15 mph Sunday night and Monday.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, showers had spread as far south as Fresno County and will continue to head southward during the course of the day. On the valley facing sides of the Kern County mountains and the Coast Range, a rain shadow is already developing. A 150 knot jet stream is currently over central California. As these winds descend on the valley side of the Coast Range, they dry out the rain, thus forming a rain shadow. Along the west side and in Kern County, amounts of a quarter to a half inch are possible between now and Sunday morning. over the valley portion of Kern County, from two tenths to four tenths seems possible. Along the east side of the valley from roughly Porterville north, between one-half to one inch appears likely, possibly more near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Rain will continue through Saturday night with showers possible into Sunday morning. dry weather will prevail from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. a weaker storm will arrive late Tuesday through Wednesday. For now, it appears to be a fairly weak system. It will still be strong enough for showers and locally heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada. The pattern looks fairly active through next weekend. The GFS model indicates a dry pattern may set up around the 12th through 13th for dry weather for several days thereafter.
Frost: Temperatures, at least in the colder locations, will drop into the 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings. There is a small chance of the coldest locations seeing temperatures drop to 30-32. However, lingering cloud cover from the current storm and possible increasing clouds from a new storm arriving next Tuesday may very well keep temperatures above freezing. At any rate, no general frost or freeze event is anticipated.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .63, Parlier, .71, Arvin .69, Delano .72.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Arvin NA, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 65/43, Record Temperatures: 79/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 1475 -532 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 6.16, Monthly 3.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.83, Monthly: 2.22
Average Temperature this Month 53.6 +2.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 793 Arvin, 689 Belridge, 687 Shafter, 741 Stratford, 779 Delano 781. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:27. Sunset, 5:55, hours of daylight, 11:25
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 53 / 0.03 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 68 / 53 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 68 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 66 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 68 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
MERCED 0.00 10.46 129 15.69 193 8.14 11.80
MADERA 0.00 6.91 95 7.72 106 7.25 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.16 84 13.48 184 7.31 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.97 110 10.55 194 5.44 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.83 113 6.76 159 4.26 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.09 122 9.70 290 3.35 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 174 0.88 64 1.37 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.40 104 10.59 117 9.03 12.58
PASO ROBLES T 13.98 162 15.67 182 8.63 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.93 118 17.13 184 9.30 13.32