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Forecast

May 5, 2018/report

May 5, 2018

Summary:  The only real difference today over yesterday will be a veil of high, thin clouds from a weather system currently approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest.  The high clouds will probably not be thick enough to have an impact on temperatures this afternoon.  Readings will once again pass the 90 degree mark.

 

Skies will clear Sunday but not before a shallow burst of marine air moves down the valley in response to that system to our north.  Temperatures will lower back into the mid to upper 80s, which is still several degrees above average for this time of year.

 

High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere will again take over Sunday night through Tuesday, allowing temperatures to once again top 90 degrees at least at the warmer locations.

 

A new and somewhat stronger low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday, once again deepening the marine layer enough to move some modified sea breezes down the valley.  We could actually see temperatures back into the low to mid 80s.

 

The pattern for next weekend is somewhat up in the air. One model shows upper level high pressure remaining in place with generally a westerly flow in the upper atmosphere while another shows a low pressure system dropping over the Desert Southwest.  In any case, the weather will remain dry so for now the main forecast challenge will be how these various systems impact our temperatures.

 

Forecast: High clouds mixed with sunshine today.  Partly cloudy tonight and for a time Sunday morning.  Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 90/58/87/55/89 Reedley 91/57/86/55/89 Dinuba 89/55/85/55/89
Porterville 92/56/86/56/91 Lindsay 91/55/87/56/90 Delano 92/59/87/57/91
Bakersfield 93/63/86/62/91 Arvin 93/59/87/57/91 Taft 91/66/87/64/89
Lamont 93/59/87/56/91 Pixley 91/57/86/56/90 Tulare 89/56/86/56/88
Woodlake 91/57/86/56/89 Hanford 92/57/86/56/89 Orosi 91/56/87/56/90

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

57/90

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

58/85

Thursday

Mostly clear

54/86

Friday

Mostly clear

56/89

Saturday

Mostly clear

57/91

 

Two Week Outlook:  May 11 through May 17:   This model is redeveloping a ridge pattern over the eastern Pacific and the western U.S.  This indicates we will have above average temperatures with very little, if any chance, of precipitation.

 

May:  This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean.  This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation. 

 

May, June, July:  Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California.  This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail.  Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH today.  Winds tonight and Sunday will be  mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly along the west side.  Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally less than 15 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, generally during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/80%  Bakersfield: 20%/60%

Actual Humidity May 3, 2018: Delano, 90%/31%, Porterville, 82%/28%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%  tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 3, 2018: Stratford 1.56, Parlier 1.40, Blackwell 1.51 Lindcove 1.24, Arvin 1.30, Orange Cove 1.41, Porterville 1.25, Delano 1.35, Madera Two 1.38.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 66, Blackwell 71, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 72, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 70, Delano 72, Madera Two 71

 

Record Temperatures: 100/39. Average Temperatures: 81/51

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 73 +29 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for May so far, 63.7 -1.7

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.01.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.19.  Month to Date: T

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:01 am  Sunset: 7:51 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:49

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  87 /  50 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  89 /  58 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  90 /  52 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  90 /  52 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  90 /  59 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  87 /  52 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1659 /  86 /  83 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  88 /  52 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /  86 /  85 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  86 /  57 / 0.00 /

Rainfall

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.09    69   21.68   164    13.25    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.00    66   16.78   138    12.19    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.91    60   15.79   136    11.61    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    65   14.17   127    11.16    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    63   17.08   159    10.76    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    50   10.65   113     9.40    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.93    64    7.76   127     6.13     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.22    28    8.81   203     4.33     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.13    58   16.36   133    12.26    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    79   15.96   130    12.23    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    45   18.10   134    13.48    13.95

 

Next report: Monday, May 7