September 6, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure remains anchored off the southern California coast and will continue at that location through the weekend. This is allowing a west/northwest flow aloft to continue, ensuring dry conditions with no more than a few high clouds, at most. The depth of the marine layer has shrunk a few hundred feet and the latest reading at Monterey indicates a depth of 1,700 feet. Aloft, we have to go up to 14,800 feet to find the freezing level.
Above average temperatures will continue through at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. A deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest will begin to slide southward Wednesday into northern and central California. Most of the models this morning are pretty consistent on this change. A few even show some light showers spreading into parts of northern California. The main impact will be a significant cooling trend, especially from Wednesday on. If models are reasonably correct, we could see high temperatures below the 90 degree mark by midweek and continuing for the remainder of the week. Even the two week model is indicating a trough of low pressure hanging around up and down the west coast with below average temperatures. However, no precipitation is expected. It almost seems odd to see a pattern develop which would lower temperatures to below average after the consistently hot summer we endured.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/63/99/63/99 | Reedley 100/64/100/63/99 | Dinuba 98/63/99/63/98 | |
| Porterville 100/64/100/64/99 | Lindsay 99/63/99/63/99 | Delano 100/67/100/67/100 | |
| Bakersfield 100/71/100/72/99 | Arvin 101/69/101/70/100 | Taft 99/75/99/75/98 | |
| Lamont 100/68/100/69/100 | Pixley 99/66/99/65/98 | Tulare 99/63/99/63/98 | |
| Woodlake 98/63/99/63/99 | Hanford 100/64/100/63/99 | Orosi 99/63/99/63/99 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 61/97 |
Monday
Mostly clear 60/97 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 59/94 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 57/89 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 58/87 |
Two Week Outlook: September 13 through September 19: This model shows a fairly significant trough of low pressure over and off the west coast with a strong on shore surface flow from time to time. With cooler air aloft, and that strong on shore flow, temperatures should actually be below average for a change with a continuation of dry conditions.
September: This model indicates there will be a higher than active monsoon over the Desert Southwest and possibly central and southern California. This typically does not affect the valley floor other than cloud cover, but could result in a larger number of days of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Kern County mountains. With generally high pressure over the southwest, temperatures will likely be somewhat above seasonal average.
September, October, November: The first part of this time frame will see a more active than usual monsoon in place for above average rain over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the mountains and deserts of southern California. October and November’s conditions aren’t as easy to determine. At this time we’ll call for generally average values for both rain and temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 12 MPH at times through Sunday with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/75% Bakersfield: 25%/55%
Actual Humidity September 5, 2018: Delano, 91%/36%, Porterville, 69%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.61, Parlier 1.55, Blackwell 1.72, Lindcove 1.47, Arvin 1.73, Orange Cove 1.74, Porterville 1.42, Delano 1.52, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 77, Blackwell 85, Lindcove, 77, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 83, Delano 76,
Record Temperatures: 106/49. Average Temperatures: 94/62
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1815 +429+
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 79.5 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.61. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.45. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:35 am Sunset: 7:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 100 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 100 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 101 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 101 / 74 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 101 / 68 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 100 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1636 / 99 / 76 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 96 / 60 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.79 158 13.78 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.86 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 120 11.79 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 111 9.94 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.83 122 6.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.08 62 9.18 184 5.00 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.67 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.16 129 12.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 43 18.69 135 13.82 13.95
Next report: Friday, September 7