October 8, 2018
Summary: A strong trough of low pressure encompasses the entire western U.S. with the main center moving into the Four Corners region. A mammoth high covers the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, putting California in a squeeze play between these two systems with a dry north to south flow aloft. Temperatures near the coast, aloft, are considerably warmer than those over the interior. The freezing level over Oakland last night was 14,200 feet, but move inland to Las Vegas and the freezing level was recorded at 9,000 feet.
The main low center will pull away, allowing pressures aloft to rise just a bit and moving temperatures today and Tuesday into the low to mid 80s. a new wave of low pressure will move southward through the trough Wednesday with the main energy again moving into the Great Basin. The Sierra Nevada is on the western side of this wave, so I wouldn’t rule out some light showers over the higher elevations Wednesday afternoon and night. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will again dip into the mid to upper 70s only to recover into the low to mid 80s Saturday through Monday.
Well to our south is hurricane Sergio which is now on a north/northeast course. Most models indicate Sergio will move inland as a tropical storm through north central Baja. As Sergio falls apart, copious amounts of precipitation will be picked up in Arizona and New Mexico with only a chance of rain over the Imperial Valley.
The trough will remain well into next week, maintaining near average temperatures. Once we move into the latter part of next week, it appears upper level high pressure will begin to build inland from the eastern Pacific Ocean for a continuation of dry weather with temperatures finally rising back above average.
Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/51/84/52/79 | Reedley 83/51/84/52/80 | Dinuba 81/50/83/53/79 | |
| Porterville 84/51/84/52/80 | Lindsay 83/50/84/51/79 | Delano 84/53/84/54/80 | |
| Bakersfield 82/56/84/58/80 | Taft 84/62/84/63/79 | Arvin 84/54/84/56/81 | |
| Lamont 83/56/84/57/81 | Pixley 83/50/84/52/79 | Tulare 82/50/82/51/78 | |
| Woodlake 83/50/84/51/80 | Hanford 84/52/84/53/80 | Orosi 82/50/84/52/79 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 51/79 |
Friday
Mostly clear 50/78 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 51/83 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 52/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 13 through October 19: Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame. This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/80% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity October 7, 2018: Delano, 95%/42%, Porterville, 85%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.00, Parlier 0.94, Blackwell 1.09, Lindcove 0.84, Arvin 1.14, Orange Cove 0.97, Porterville 0.90, Delano 0.97, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 79, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 71, Porterville 78, Delano 69
Record Temperatures: 99/35. Average Temperatures: 83/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2093 +476
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 69.9 +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or +0.02 Month to Date: .10 +.02
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.03. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 am Sunset: 6:31 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:31
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 80 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 77 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 78 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 76 / 61 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 76 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 1280 0.00 0 0.10 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 10 0.00 0 0.10 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.07 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 125 0.00 0 0.08 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 100 0.00 0 0.04 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 667 0.00 0 0.06 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 744 0.00 0 0.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 33 0.00 0 0.09 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 500 0.00 0 0.07 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, October 9