October 18, 2018
Summary: Fairly low dew points and a fairly dry air mass on the valley floor continue to allow a wide spread between overnight lows and daytime highs. Fowler this morning, as of 6:30am, was down to 38 degrees and Poso Creek, according to a grower, was down to 38 the past two mornings. In the big picture, an upper low is centered over northern Utah this morning while upper level high pressure blankets the eastern Pacific with a continuation of a north/northeast flow aloft. The high is showing signs of shifting slowly eastward, so temperatures will warm over the next few days with warmer locations ending up in the mid 80s by Friday. However, overnight lows will still be chilly under clear skies.
Models this morning continue to indicate a weak upper low will develop off the southern California coast late Friday. Most models this morning, however, are not as bullish regarding rain, just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California with that slight chance extending northward over the Kern County mountains and deserts. For now, I’m going to take the chance of showers out of the forecast for the valley, but since models seem to be swaying back and forth, this will be subject to change. At the very least, by Sunday and Monday temperatures will slide back to near seasonal values which range in the upper 70s this time of year.
Models for later next week are really diverging. One shows two frontal systems moving into California…one Tuesday and one Thursday…with even a slight chance of showers down to Fresno County. Other models show the rain line over the Pacific Northwest and northwest California. It does appear a zonal flow will develop for much of next week with the winds aloft becoming westerly and with a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California. This will keep conditions dry. Some models are showing a strong low over California about the end of the month which could lead to rain, but that far out, it would be dishonest of me to put rain in the forecast but it does look pretty on paper.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday night. Mostly clear Saturday through Monday with occasional cloudiness. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/44/84/48/85 | Reedley 83/45/84/48/84 | Dinuba 82/43/83/45/83 | |
| Porterville 84/45/85/47/85 | Lindsay 83/44/85/48/84 | Delano 84/47/84/49/86 | |
| Bakersfield 84/55/85/57/86 | Taft 83/61/84/62/85 | Arvin 85/52/86/53/86 | |
| Lamont 85/54/85/55/86 | Pixley 84/45/85/48/85 | Tulare 83/44/84/47/85 | |
| Woodlake 82/44/83/48/83 | Hanford 83/45/84/48/85 | Orosi 82/45/84/47/84 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 50/83 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 50/80 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 46/79 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 45/78 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 46/79 |
Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30: This model begins to ratchet up the action over the eastern Pacific Ocean with the storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California. For now, it appears most, if not all, the precipitation will remain north of our region. However, we will definitely be monitoring this. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Expect winds of no more than 10 MPH for the foreseeable future.
Rain: Models this morning have backed off on the chance of rain Saturday night through Monday. The chance was minimal anyway, but current indications are that there will only be a slight chance of showers over the mountains and deserts of southern California with a very slight chance over the Kern County mountains and deserts and possibly the high Sierra. With models leaning on the dry side now, we’ll take the small chance of showers out of the forecast. Models for later next week show the storm track moving back into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northernmost California, but it looks like central California will remain dry.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/85% Bakersfield: 20%/55%
Actual Humidity October 17, 2018: Delano, 91%/19%, Porterville, 90%/16%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier 0.93, Blackwell 1.10, Lindcove 0.90, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville 0.94, Delano 0.89 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 68, Blackwell 75, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 71, Delano 64
Record Temperatures: 95/36. Average Temperatures: 79/49
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2101 +464
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.9 +0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.15 Month to Date: .10 -.15
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.11. Month to Date: .00 -.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 6:17 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:08
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 85 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 84 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 400 0.00 0 0.32 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 3 0.00 0 0.29 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.27 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 40 0.00 0 0.25 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 25 0.00 0 0.16 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.11 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 267 0.00 0 0.15 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 268 0.00 0 0.25 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 12 0.00 0 0.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 159 T 0 0.22 13.95
Next report: Friday, October 19