November 17, 2018
Summary: Another mild, hazy afternoon in the valley with some high, thin clouds overhead. Upper level high pressure stretches from northwest Mexico northward to the Pacific Northwest and into British Columbia. That will not change through at least Monday. The new weather satellite, the GOES 17, is now in service and the results of this technology are absolutely gorgeous with very high resolution still shots and beautifully smooth satellite in motion. What this new satellite is indicating this afternoon is that there’s a batch of clouds just off the central and southern California coast. Movement of this cloud deck is very slow due to light winds aloft, but the leading edge is trying to move into the Coast Range and may make it into the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley tonight. If it does, most locations would be above freezing for a change. However, for frost concerns, we’ll still go with low to mid 30s. More is discussed below.
A low pressure system will rapidly move across the eastern Pacific and inland through northern Baja and extreme southern California Monday night or Tuesday with no active weather. This little feature will, however, break down the eastern Pacific high which has been dominating our weather for almost two months now. The first in a series of disturbances will move into northern and central California Wednesday, mainly during the later afternoon hours. As more waves move on shore, there will be periods of showers from Wednesday night through early Saturday with Thanksgiving Day and black Friday being the target of greatest possibility.
On paper anyway, this looks to be a pretty decent weather event for central California, especially north of Kern County. Lots of energy should be moving across the Pacific and lifted orographically by both the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada. This type of pattern always causes chaos in trying to nail down rain patterns for the valley floor with much less precipitation on the west side and in Kern County and potentially heavy precipitation along the Sierra Nevada foothills and over the higher elevations.
Dry weather will return later Saturday through Monday. A relatively strong northeast flow is projected to develop as high pressure builds northeastward from the Pacific into southern Canada and a dry low develops over southern California. This pattern would be conducive for a strong off shore flow both at the surface and aloft, possibly pumping colder and drier air into our region for frost concerns. If this occurs at all, it looks like it would be short lived as models are showing another period of active weather about the 30th and lasting through about December 2nd.
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday morning with a chance of showers by midday. Showers becoming likely by evening. Showers Wednesday night through early Saturday with the greatest potential for precipitation being Thanksgiving Day through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/70/33/66 | Reedley 33/68/34/65 | Dinuba 31/67/33/65 | |
| Porterville 32/70/34/66 | Lindsay 31/71/34/67 | Delano 34/70/36/68 | |
| Bakersfield 44/71/46/69 | Arvin 40/72/44/70 | Taft 52/71/52/68 | |
| Lamont 38/70/40/67 | Pixley 33/68/34/67 | Tulare 31/67/32/65 | |
| Woodlake 32/70/33/67 | Hanford 33/69/34/65 | Orosi 31/69/33/66 | |
Winds: Expect winds either at or less than 7 MPH through Tuesday with occasional periods of near calm winds.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least early Wednesday with a chance of showers by midday, becoming likely by evening. There will be a series of disturbances wrapping around the bottom side of a trough of low pressure which will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to central California. The greatest likelihood of precipitation will be from Wednesday night through Friday with a chance of showers continuing Friday night into Saturday morning. This type of weather pattern is one which creates rain shadows along the west side of the valley and in the south as westerly winds come in contact with the Tehachapis then descend into the west valley. As they descend they dry out. Thus, we typically see much less precipitation along the west side than east of Highway 99. In Kern County, where the mountains to the west are considerably higher, the rain shadow effect is even stronger.
It appears the best dynamics with this event will be from Fresno County north for potentially heavy rain and snow along the Sierra Nevada foothills and in the higher elevations. Still much too early to try to decipher rainfall amounts, but these three and a half days will be the best potentially since last spring.
Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon through Monday with just possibly another chance of precip around November 29th through December 2nd.
Frost Information: With a little bit of luck, it just may be a tad milder tonight, especially from Fresno County southward. The dazzling new GOES satellite imagery indicates a batch of mid and high level clouds moving very slowly on shore along the central coast. Some of these clouds could spread over the valley floor during the night. If our dome of upper level high pressure doesn’t force these clouds to die off, readings could end up in the mid to upper 30s. If skies are relatively clear, low to mid 30s will again be widespread.
Assuming skies are clear, coldest readings tonight will range from 29 to 31 with the vast majority of locations in the low to mid 30s except most of Kern County where temperatures in the mid 30s to the low 40s will be commonplace.
Similar conditions will prevail Sunday night/Monday morning. Beginning Tuesday, more and more moisture will stream overhead in the form of cloud cover, keeping temperatures above freezing. Above freezing conditions will continue Wednesday through Saturday due to an active weather pattern. We may see a return to frost concerns from the 26 through the 28 as a strong off shore flow sets up both at the surface and aloft, possibly spreading a colder and drier air mass into the valley. Some models this afternoon are showing another round of storminess moving in from around the 30th through December 2nd, meaning rising temperatures and above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next Report: Sunday morning/November 18