November 24, 2018
Summary: Just a few light showers linger after a low pressure system moved through northern and central California yesterday and last night. Precipitation amounts over most of central California were not impressive with just mainly trace amounts in the south valley. There is plenty of lingering low level moisture on and just above the valley floor. Currently, most locations are overcast with the base of the cloud deck between 2,500 and 3,000 feet. With a northwest flow moving in behind the low, the cloud cover will stack up against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and especially along the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. Don’t anticipate much sunshine today, particularly in Tulare and Kern Counties which may remain cloudy through roughly midday Sunday.
A temporary ridge of upper level high pressure is currently building into California from the west and will eventually ridge well northward Sunday through Monday. There may be areas of dense fog out there Monday morning, but only if skies clear which would allow for radiational cooling. A weak weather system will move through the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California Tuesday. It’s doubtful whether any measurable rain will occur from this system.
At one time we had though multiple storms would occur beginning Wednesday night and Thursday. Now, it looks like a one storm event. But the good news is, the potential for significant rain and heavy amounts of snow over the high Sierra are certainly there. It appears the main surface low will move into northern California Thursday with plenty of moisture moving in from the west underneath the low. The potential for a high wind event in the south valley seems to be waning with time, although I wouldn’t rule out some strong, gusty winds, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.
The low will move east of the Sierra Nevada Friday for a chance of showers Friday morning. Some models are beginning to pick up on a much weaker low becoming caught up in a northwesterly flow and possibly supplying a chance of light showers Saturday, mainly from Fresno County north. Beyond Saturday, it looks like a ridge of high pressure will build in from the west, driving the storm track back into the Pacific Northwest. Models differ considerably on a pattern for the first week in December. Some are showing precipitation trying to move back into California about the fifth through sixth, but others aren’t showing that possibility. For now, it looks like part of the challenge during this period will be increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon except remaining mostly cloudy over Tulare and Kern Counties. Partly cloudy tonight, but remaining mostly cloudy over Tulare and Kern Counties through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday night with areas of night and morning fog developing. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with an increasing chance of rain from Fresno north Wednesday afternoon. Rain likely Wednesday night and at times through Thursday night, possibly locally heavy at times. Showers winding down Friday morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/50/62/46/65 | Reedley 63/50/62/44/64 | Dinuba 62/48/62/43/65 | |
| Porterville 62/51/62/44/67 | Lindsay 63/48/64/43/66 | Delano 64/41/62/46/65 | |
| Bakersfield 61/52/65/46/68 | Taft 62/52/65/49/68 | Arvin 61/53/63/47/70 | |
| Lamont 62/51/64/47/67 | Pixley 62/49/62/43/64 | Tulare 62/48/62/42/63 | |
| Woodlake 63/50/62/44/65 | Hanford 63/51/62/43/65 | Orosi 63/41/62/42/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Increasing clouds 49/66 |
Wednesday
PM rain likely 52/67 |
Thursday
Rain likely 53/64 |
Friday
AM showers 43/61 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 39/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 7: This model shows a possible wide area of low pressure over the interior west with possibly a northwest flow into California. This would bring marginally below average temperatures. Precipitation during this time frame appears to be marginally likely.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Late Wednesday night through Thursday, we could possibly observe strong, gusty south to southeast winds blowing downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and just possibly reaching the valley floor. The best opportunity for this to occur would be late Wednesday night and into early Thursday night.
Rain: Expect dry weather more than likely through Wednesday morning. The chance of rain will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon and become likely Wednesday night through Thursday night with showers lingering into Friday morning. For now, anyway, it appears the chance for significant amounts of rain is certainly there with the possibility of many locations picking up more than .50 with lesser amounts in Kern County and along the west side. The rain should be over by midday Friday with dry weather Friday night and for the next three or four days.
Models are still having a difficult time with the first week of December. Some show some precipitation trying to move in about the fifth or sixth, but others don’t show this. At any rate, for now it looks like the first few days of December will be dry.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 for the next week to ten days or longer.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100% Bakersfield 65%/90%
Actual Humidity November 23, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/51%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .46, Parlier .43, Blackwell .54, Lindcove .44, Arvin .58, Orange Cove .49, Porterville .47, Delano .48 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 56, Blackwell 61, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 56, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 78/29. Average Temperatures: 61/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 261 -116
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 54.8 +1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .60 season. or -0.84 Month to Date: .50 -.31
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .33, or -.44. Month to Date: .33 -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 142, Parlier, 182 , Arvin, 119 Shafter, 179 Stratford, 156, Delano 166, Lindcove, 146, Porterville, 212. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:47 am Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 54 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 51 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 47 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 55 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 58 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 46 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1557 / 64 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.17 2.16 103 0.78 37 2.09 14.06
MODESTO 0.08 0.73 43 0.72 43 1.68 13.11
MERCED 0.04 0.04 2 0.82 47 1.76 12.50
MADERA T 0.58 32 0.21 12 1.81 12.02
FRESNO T 0.57 40 0.31 22 1.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 0.34 25 0.17 12 1.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 0.32 42 0.03 4 0.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.41 59 0.16 23 0.69 5.18
SALINAS 0.21 1.71 108 0.40 25 1.59 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 0.42 30 0.23 17 1.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 0.56 35 0.05 3 1.59 13.95
Next report: Saturday, November 24/pm