December 5, 2018
Summary: Strong, gusty winds are still blowing in some parts of the valley portion of Kern County, but are decreasing in others. Over this event, Bakersfield has recorded a peak gust of 39 MPH, Lamont 48, and 51 MPH at the bottom of the Grapevine. These winds will slowly decrease this morning as the center of low pressure is moving south/southeast and will be centered near Point Conception this evening. Bands of light showers continue to rotate counterclockwise around the low and through central California. This will continue through Thursday morning with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon, mainly in Kern County. By Thursday morning, the low will be moving into southern California then will open up into a low pressure wave before moving into the Desert Southwest Friday.
High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere will begin to move in from the west Friday for dry weather which will last through at least Sunday night. Areas of fog and low clouds will no doubt form, especially Saturday and Sunday mornings. From late Monday into Tuesday, an elongated trough of low pressure will sweep in through the Pacific Northwest, northern and central California. For now, it appears the portion that will move through our region will be weak, so this does not look like a significant precipitation event.
Dry weather will return later Tuesday night through Thursday. Medium range models are once again more encouraging on the possibility of rain later next week. In fact some models are back to showing a low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a moist west/southwest flow into California. That could lead to some decent rains, but since models are flip flopping on a pattern for this time frame, this is a low confidence call for now.
Forecast: Periods of mostly light showers through Thursday morning, possibly lasting through Thursday afternoon in mainly Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally party cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing Saturday and Sunday mornings. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a chance of rain late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/48/58/37/58 | Reedley 57/47/59/38/57 | Dinuba 57/44/57/37/57 | |
| Porterville 60/47/59/38/58 | Lindsay 60/45/59/38/57 | Delano 62/47/60/40/60 | |
| Bakersfield 65/49/60/43/60 | Taft 64/50/60/47/60 | Arvin 65/48/60/41/60 | |
| Lamont 64/49/61/42/60 | Pixley 61/47/59/39/58 | Tulare 57/44/58/37/58 | |
| Woodlake 58/46/59/36/57 | Hanford 59/47/59/38/58 | Orosi 57/46/58/36/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 38/56 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 37/54 |
Monday
Chance of rain 38/59 |
Tuesday
AM showers 44/57 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 39/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 11 through December 17: If this model has any distinction at all, it’s that it shows the storm track moving further north during this period. Although it doesn’t show the typical big high off shore, it is showing a flat zone of high pressure, keeping most of the precipitation from northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures during this period may rise to above average, however if fog and low clouds take over, that could change.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds over the valley portion of Kern County will die down later this morning as pressure differences decrease. Fifty mile per hour gusts were recorded at Lamont and at the bottom of the Grapevine with forty MPH gusts as far north as Bakersfield. From this afternoon and on through Saturday, winds will be generally less than 7 MPH with stronger gusts from today through Thursday morning in the vicinity of showers.
Rain: So far, for the first part of this event, much of the rain has evaporated before reaching the ground due to a very dry air mass near the valley floor as the result of strong winds in Kern County. Dew points will begin to rise during the day as the winds begin to die off. This will allow for measurable precipitation. Even so, I still anticipate rainfall amounts to be light, perhaps .10 to .20 with isolated pockets recording somewhat more. The light showers will continue through Thursday morning then taper off with the possible exception of Kern County where showers may continue into Thursday afternoon. From Thursday night through Monday night, expect dry conditions. An elongated trough of low pressure will move inland through the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California later Monday and Monday night. That will be our next chance of precipitation, although it does not look to be a blockbuster.
Models for late next week are more encouraging as some are showing a deep low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with the possibility of a moist west/southwest flow moving underneath the low and into central California. This is a low confidence forecast at this time as models flip flop, which is fairly typical. Even so, it’s nice to see it on paper.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next week to possibly ten days. Saturday and Sunday mornings could see lows in the 33 to 37 degree range in some areas, but for now nothing significant is expected. Clouds and the possibility of rain will keep temperatures above freezing Monday and Tuesday. After that, a west/southwest flow may set up which would prevent frost later next week, as well.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/95%, Bakersfield: 50%/90%
Actual Humidity December 4, 2018: Delano, 97%/58%, Porterville, 96%/52%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .25, Parlier .23, Blackwell .37, Lindcove .19, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .20, Delano .27 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 53, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 72/28. Average Temperatures: 57/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 389 -183
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 48.4 +2.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.82 season. or -.04, Month to Date: .05 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .87, or -.17. Month to Date: .19 +.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 195, Parlier, 233 , Arvin, 157 Shafter, 230 Stratford, 202, Delano 213, Lindcove, 221, Porterville, 324
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 58 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 52 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 3.73 136 0.91 33 2.75 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 2.97 132 0.98 44 2.25 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.60 124 1.03 49 2.10 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.25 105 0.32 15 2.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.82 98 0.37 20 1.86 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.57 99 0.37 23 1.58 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 0.87 84 0.03 3 1.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 147 0.16 18 0.89 5.18
SALINAS T 3.63 166 0.75 34 2.19 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 2.47 135 0.25 14 1.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 1.81 85 0.09 4 2.13 13.95
Next report: December 5/pm