September 3, 2017
Summary: Blistering heat continued Saturday with Bakersfield reaching 111 and most other locations between 105 and 110. Temperatures will marginally lower today but will still be very hot. The main feature we’re monitoring closely is the remains of former Tropical Storm Lidia. Currently, there are two main areas of precipitation. One is just off the central coast, moving northwestward. It will not have an impact on the San Joaquin Valley. Another is wrapped around the center of a low pressure system and is approaching extreme southern California. This batch of moisture will also track northwestward, just off the southern California coast.
Models give southern California a fairly high risk of showers and thunderstorms today through Monday. Model information shows this area skirting the southern and central California coast tonight and Monday. The best chance of precipitation for our region will be along the Coast Range and over coastal sections of central California. This is by no means to say the valley couldn’t experience scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Labor Day. Even today, thunderstorms will develop along the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, moving from southeast to northwest and possibly giving a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. This will be especially true in the south valley.
The time frame of most concern is Monday, Labor Day, as Lidia’s remains track northwestward along the central California coast. The best chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be along the west side and possibly near the base of the Sierra Nevada, but I wouldn’t discount the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms just about anywhere Monday and Monday night.
As far as the heat wave is concerned, help is on the way. A low pressure system off the northern California coast will move inland Tuesday. By Thursday, a new trough will be digging southward along the west coast for much cooler weather. by the time we hit Friday, temperatures will be struggling to reach the 90 degree mark for a refreshing change which will last through the weekend and at least through the middle of next week.
The two week outlook, however, is showing a trend of above average temperatures with a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy later tonight and Monday with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. A slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday night. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday and much cooler. Mostly clear skies Friday through Sunday and continued fairly mild.
Short Term:
| Madera 107/72/99/70/96 | Reedley 106/73/102/70/95 | Dinuba 106/73/101/69/96 | |
| Porterville 107/74/102/70/97 | Lindsay 106/73/102/69/97 | Delano 108/77/102/72/97 | |
| Bakersfield 109/82/102/78/97 | Arvin 109/78/102/74/98 | Taft 108/83/102/77/97 | |
| Lamont 109/79/103/73/98 | Pixley 107/75/102/73/96 | Tulare 107/73/101/69/95 | |
| Woodlake 107/74/101/70/96 | Hanford 108/73/101/70/97 | Orosi 107/72/101/69/97 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 65/95 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 63/92 |
Friday
Mostly clear 61/90 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 60/90 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 62/93 |
Two Week Outlook: September 11 through September 16: This model indicates another regime of above average temperatures will be at hand. Persistent upper level high pressure is the dominant feature, allowing the chance of afternoon and evening storms over the mountains during this period. For now, we’ll keep the chance of precipitation out of the forecast for the valley floor while strictly monitoring conditions.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Wednesday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: There are two main batches of precipitation. One is off the central coast and is moving northwestward just off the coast of Monterey. The second is the remaining circulation around what was once Tropical Storm Lidia. That is just about ready to enter extreme southern California and will move to the northwest. If models are correct, it will remain off shore. The greatest risk of showers will occur from the Coast Range westward with a smaller chance over the San Joaquin Valley. Still, this is going to be a very close call, so it’s necessary to keep in the forecast a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and over the Kern County mountains. With a southeast flow aloft, this activity could be nudged over the foothills and possibly into the valley later this afternoon and evening. The chance at any given location is very low.
The greatest risk will be Monday as Lidia’s remains brush the central California coast. Even though the chance of rain over the valley floor is low, a slight eastward jog of Lidia could change that, so we’ll keep our eyes peeled on Lidia’s behavior through Monday night.
Dry weather will again return Tuesday, however a southeast flow will continue through at least Wednesday. This will be favorable for afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra and possibly the Kern County mountains. For now, though, the forecast for the valley will remain dry.
After Wednesday, it will be smooth sailing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/75% Bakersfield, 15%/45%
Actual Humidity August 31, 2017: Delano, 83%/20%, Porterville, 80%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 30%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates over the Past Seven Days August 31, 2017: Stratford 1.96, Parlier 1.57, Blackwell 1.95, Lindcove 1.71, Arvin 1.99, Orange Cove 1.82, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.69, Madera Two 1.59. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 83, Lindcove 80, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 86, Delano 84, Madera Two 82
Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 83.5. +5.1
Record Temperatures: 107/51. Average Temperatures: 95/62
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1817, +486 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 31, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.87 or +5.87, Month to Date: T
Since August 31, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.43, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 am Sunset: 7:25 Hours of Daylight: 12:48
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 109 / 72 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 109 / 77 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 107 / 69 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 74 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 110 / 79 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 105 / 71 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 110 / 73 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 106 / 74 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 109 / 82 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 121 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.21 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 120 12.96 110 11.77 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 5.43 85 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 184 3.88 78 4.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 16.14 129 8.06 64 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.44 134 9.00 65 13.81 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Monday, September 4