December 11, 2018
Summary: There is one sure sign that the low overcast will clear today and that is the fact that the base of the overcast has risen to over 3,000 feet. In fact, fog is a problem at Tehachapi as they are enjoying the benefits of what valley residents typically go through this time of year. Satellite imagery shows drier air filtering into the west side of the valley behind a weak trough which moved through yesterday. Therefore, I do believe most locations should see some sunshine this afternoon. If this occurs, we will experience colder overnight lows and it is also possible that widespread ground fog will form, possibly developing into a new fog regime which could last through Saturday. That may not happen, however, if a weak and dry cold front moves through the valley Friday. That front could cause the lower level stuff to mix out once again.
Clouds will begin to increase Saturday night as a low and its associated cold front moves through central and northern California. Models seem to be fairly consistent on the likelihood of light precipitation spreading as far south as Fresno County with a chance of light showers in the south valley. Unfortunately, this will be a one storm event as models for next week are consistent in showing a strong high building off the Pacific coast with the storm track migrating into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. It’s entirely possible that from Tuesday of next week and beyond, a long term fog regime will set up with partial afternoon clearing.
Forecast: Overcast this morning. Clearing in most areas this afternoon. Mostly clear tonight with widespread ground fog forming. Widespread fog Wednesday morning, possibly clearing in the afternoon. Widespread fog and/or low clouds Thursday and Thursday night with a slight chance of a few showers from Fresno County north Friday. Mostly cloudy Friday night. becoming partly cloudy Saturday with areas of morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with light rain becoming likely Sunday and Sunday night. a chance of light showers in the south valley. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday with a few lingering showers possible early Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday night. becoming mostly clear Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/33/55/34/57 | Reedley 53/33/54/33/54 | Dinuba 52/31/55/32/55 | |
| Porterville 52/32/55/33/56 | Lindsay 53/31/55/32/55 | Delano 54/34/56/35/57 | |
| Bakersfield 53/39/57/40/59 | Taft 55/42/58/40/60 | Arvin 53/38/57/34/61 | |
| Lamont 54/37/57/37/58 | Pixley 54/32/55/32/56 | Tulare 54/31/55/32/55 | |
| Woodlake 53/32/55/32/57 | Hanford 55/33/55/34/56 | Orosi 53/31/55/32/56 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Slight chance of showers 40/57 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 37/60 |
Sunday
Rain likely 35/59 |
Monday
AM showers possible 48/58 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 43/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 18 through December 24: This model now shows a blocking pattern as a high pressure system parks itself off the California coast, driving the storm track into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. The chance of rain will be low with temperatures above the valley floor running above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by the amount of fog and low clouds.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: There is a slight chance of a few light showers Friday, but in all likelihood nothing measurable will occur. The next chance of rain will arrive Sunday as a stronger low and its associated cold front move through. Rain will be likely from Fresno County north with only a chance of light showers south of Fresno County. A few lingering showers may last into Monday morning, mainly over the mountain areas, but unfortunately models continue to indicate conditions after Monday will be dry for the rest of the week. Even the two week model is now indicating the chance of precipitation will be low all the way through Christmas Eve.
Frost Discussion: The low cloud deck has lifted further off the ground and is now generally based between 3,000 and 3,500 feet. Whenever this occurs, you can bet skies will clear during the afternoon. In fact, some clearing is already occurring in western Fresno and Merced Counties as drier air filters southward after yesterday’s trough passage. Assuming it does clear, widespread low to mid 30s will prevail tonight with isolated pockets possibly falling into the upper 20s. similar conditions will no doubt prevail Thursday morning. Ground fog will no doubt rapidly form tonight due to radiational cooling under a mostly clear sky and could become widespread by sunrise. There is a chance the fog could have an impact on tonight’s lows, but my belief is it will be too shallow to halt the cooling process.
We’ll see some increase in clouds Friday morning ahead of a weak frontal system, so above freezing conditions should prevail. Low to mid 30s are possible again Saturday morning. Look for above freezing conditions Sunday and Monday as clouds and rain enter the picture. Widespread low to mid 30s are possible again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Once we get beyond Monday of next week, high pressure will dominate which means a new inversion will develop with no doubt widespread night and morning fog probably lasting through the day in many areas. This would maintain above freezing conditions.
In the longer term, I’m still watching the conditions for the 23 through the 27. Models this morning aren’t quite as dramatic in showing an arctic air mass moving into the region. Instead, the main cold air mass is shown over the interior west with the possibility of some of this air moving into the valley. If this occurs, widespread mid to upper 20s would be likely. At least this morning’s models don’t appear to be quite as ominous.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
34 |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
35 |
Lamont
34 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 75%/90%
Actual Humidity December 9, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/83%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .10, Parlier .12, Blackwell .21, Lindcove .13, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .19, Porterville .14, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 69/25. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 474 -217
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.7 +4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.92 season. or -.24, Month to Date: .15 -.31
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or -.02. Month to Date: .52 +.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 204, Parlier, 235 , Arvin, 189 Shafter, 245 Stratford, 207, Delano 214, Lindcove, 305, Porterville, 448
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:02 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 50 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 49 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 50 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 48 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 52 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1523 / 50 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 51 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 3.87 123 0.91 29 3.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.05 117 0.98 38 2.60 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.69 116 1.03 45 2.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 100 0.32 13 2.41 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.92 89 0.37 17 2.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.71 98 0.37 21 1.75 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 98 0.03 2 1.22 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 130 0.16 16 1.01 5.18
SALINAS T 3.87 152 0.75 30 2.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.84 132 0.25 12 2.15 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 78 0.09 4 2.50 13.95
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 52 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 57 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 56 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.87 126 0.91 30 3.08 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.05 120 0.98 39 2.54 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.69 119 1.03 45 2.27 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 103 0.32 14 2.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.92 91 0.37 18 2.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.71 99 0.37 22 1.72 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 101 0.03 3 1.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 132 0.16 16 0.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.87 156 0.75 30 2.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.84 136 0.25 12 2.09 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 80 0.09 4 2.44 13.95
Next report: Tuesday December 11/pm