December 26, 2018
Summary: Most of the upslope clouds dissipated overnight with only a few pockets of low clouds left, mainly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains with a bit more over eastern and southeastern Tulare County. Winds stayed up enough overnight to inhibit fog formation, but with generally clear skies tonight, frost will be likely in many areas. A low pressure system is currently centered over Arizona with a rather robust northwest flow aloft behind the system. A second system is currently just off the coast of British Columbia and will race southeastward into Nevada Thursday. This system, in part, will be responsible for the first widespread frost we’ve seen in a while. A high will build into the Pacific Northwest Friday as the low center meanders around Arizona and northern Mexico. The squeeze play between the two will create a north and eventually north/northeast flow, moving colder and drier air into the region. I won’t talk numbers here. It will be in the frost discussion below. Frosty nights will continue through at least Sunday morning.
Models are quite inconclusive about a low pressure system for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. It’s possible a low could drop right into central California. Other models place this feature off shore. At any rate, the forecast will be dry for this period.
By Sunday night, a high center will be approaching the central and southern California coast, at least some models say so. This will end the colder air mass from moving into the area. Models for the first five days of January indicate a ridge of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific and about the western one-fourth of the U.S. while a polar air mass dives southward along the eastern side of this high. The bulk of the arctic air will move into the Midwest with lesser amounts of this air moving into the Rocky Mountains and even a chance over the Great Basin. Even though this is a change in modeling projections, it still indicates we will not receive any of this air. For now, anyway, we seem to be home free.
Forecast: Other than pockets of low clouds and patches of fog this morning, it will be mostly clear through tonight. Partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and New Year’s Eve. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy New Year’s Day and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/32/54/30/48 | Reedley 54/33/53/31/49 | Dinuba 52/31/52/30/48 | |
| Porterville 55/32/54/30/49 | Lindsay 55/29/54/28/50 | Delano 55/33/54/31/50 | |
| Bakersfield 56/37/54/34/51 | Taft 56/41/54/37/51 | Arvin 56/34/54/32/50 | |
| Lamont 55/35/54/32/50 | Pixley 54/33/54/30/49 | Tulare 55/33/54/30/48 | |
| Woodlake 53/32/54/30/49 | Hanford 54/34/54/31/49 | Orosi 55/31/54/29/48 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Areas of fog/mostly clear 27/53 |
Sunday
Areas of fog/mostly clear 28/54 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 30/58 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 32/57 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 32/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 2 through January 8: This model shows a persistent ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and at least the western one-fourth of the U.S. This means rain is unlikely during this period with above average daytime temperatures.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest later today at 5 to 10 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday afternoon will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side, decreasing Thursday night with light winds Friday and Saturday. The possible exception will be along the far west side which could have locally gusty north to northeast winds.
Rain: The following are rainfall amounts from the Christmas Eve storm. Stratford .24, Parlier .21, Blackwell .03, Lindcove .38, Arvin .25, Orange Cove .24, Porterville .22, Delano .02, Madera .14, Fresno .06, Lemoore .19, Bakersfield .10, and Taft .07.
The remainder of the year will be dry. For now, it appears the first week of January will also be dry, although there are some hints we could see a lower latitude storm about the 6th. File that in the low chance category for now, though.
Frost Discussion: Most locations this morning are in the mid to upper 30s with isolated pockets of lower 40s in Kern County due to pockets of clouds still hanging in there. Just about all the valley cleared out last night as a strong push of northwesterly winds moved in aloft and at the surface, scouring out the valley. Conditions tonight will be generally quiet which will allow lows to drop into the 27 to 32 degree range at most locations. Once that low dives into the Great Basin and then Arizona, a north then northeast flow will develop, bringing a colder and drier air mass into California. The fact that the Christmas Eve storm almost wiped the valley free of fog and clouds indicates the colder air mass will have a good chance of settling into the valley by Thursday night and Friday. A northeast flow will continue through Sunday.
Lows, especially Saturday and Sunday, could chill to 24 to 25 degrees in those traditional cold spots with 26 to 29 degrees elsewhere. Friday morning is a difficult call at this time as we may see some clouds and wind conditions may go a long way in holding temperatures up a bit. Still, when winds die off , 26 to 29 temperatures could occur.
At the first of the year, a high center will develop just off shore, blocking the northeast flow. However, this may be one of those situations where the cold, dry air remains on the valley floor, leading to a continuation of frost nights. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
35 |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
34 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/100%, Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity December 25, 2018: Delano, 100%/65% Porterville, 98%/66%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .20, Parlier .17, Blackwell .23, Lindcove .16, Arvin .30, Orange Cove .19, Porterville .19, Delano .23 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 54, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 55, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 70/21. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 695 -308
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.8 +5.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.33 season. or -.73, Month to Date: .56 -.80
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.30, or -.53. Month to Date: .62 -.17
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 293, Parlier, 320 , Arvin, 252 Shafter, 341 Stratford, 304, Delano 315, Lindcove, 490, Porterville, 686
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 47 / 0.14 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 48 / 0.07 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 43 / 0.19 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 55 / 51 / 0.10 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 47 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 58 / 44 / 0.04 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.22 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 50 / 48 / 0.07 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.56 5.88 138 0.96 23 4.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.16 4.49 124 1.03 28 3.63 13.11
MERCED 0.14 3.87 125 1.11 36 3.09 12.50
MADERA 0.01 2.99 90 0.41 12 3.31 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.33 76 0.41 13 3.06 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 1.87 72 0.41 16 2.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.10 1.30 75 0.07 4 1.73 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.57 112 0.16 11 1.40 5.18
SALINAS 0.14 4.77 137 0.78 22 3.49 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.08 3.60 113 0.27 8 3.18 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.43 2.74 77 0.12 3 3.56 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/December 26