January 3, 2019
Summary: The long awaited nail in the coffin to that menacing northeast flow aloft has now officially been observed with funeral services pending. A weak westerly flow has now moved in overhead in association with weak high pressure which will begin to shift east of our region as early as tomorrow afternoon. Speaking of Friday, the winds will turn southwesterly, flanked underneath a developing low pressure system which will enter northern California somewhere between Ukiah and Crescent City. As it does, it will open up into a trough with rainfall being experienced over almost all of California with the possible exception of the lower deserts. This doesn’t shape up to be a very moist storm, but one of average strength, especially for the northern half of the state. Even so, decent amounts of snow will fall over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, especially north of Kings Canyon, where one to two feet are possible over the higher elevations.
The precipitation will begin spreading southeastward Saturday afternoon, reaching Kern County during the evening with periods of rain Saturday night and Sunday. The rain machine should keep going on and off Sunday night from mainly Fresno County north as a moist westerly flow fills in behind the exiting storm.
A weak ridge will try to fill in behind Monday night and Tuesday for a brief period of dry weather, however models continue to indicate a strong Pacific storm will approach the northern California coast Wednesday which could turn out to be a major winter storm. Rain may begin as early as Wednesday afternoon and continue well into Thursday. Most of the medium range models are still indicating dry weather for at least three or four days after Thursday. The new two week model going out through the 17th is still insisting on above average precipitation with temperatures falling back to seasonal averages.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight with possibly some high clouds showing up after midnight and patchy fog Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday. Increasing cloudiness by late Friday night. periods of rain spreading over the valley Saturday, continuing Saturday night and Sunday morning. A chance of showers Sunday afternoon through Monday, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night with patchy fog nights and morning. Cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with an increasing chance of rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/59/42/55 | Reedley 29/58/44/54 | Dinuba 28/58/43/54 | |
| Porterville 29/60/45/55 | Lindsay 28/60/43/57 | Delano 29/61/44/55 | |
| Bakersfield 34/62/47/59 | Taft 38/62/46/59 | Arvin 29/62/46/59 | |
| Lamont 30/63/45/58 | Pixley 29/59/43/54 | Tulare 28/58/43/55 | |
| Woodlake 29/58/44/54 | Hanford 30/59/45/55 | Orosi 28/58/42/54 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Friday. Winds Friday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 MPH Saturday with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Sunday will be generally out of the west at 10 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Models this afternoon, if anything, have moved up the timing of precipitation for Saturday, possibly as early as the late morning hours from Fresno County north, spreading southward during the afternoon. Periods of rain will continue at times Saturday night and Sunday. There will be a continuing risk of showers from mainly Fresno County northward Sunday night and for a time Monday. Rainfall amounts will be generally at or less than .25 with perhaps .10 to .15 along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties and perhaps at or less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County with .25 or less in eastern Tulare County.
Dry weather will return by Monday night and continue through Tuesday night. the chance of precipitation will again increase during mainly the second half of the day Wednesday, lasting through Thursday. Models continue to show the possibility of a major winter storm later Wednesday through Thursday with the possibility of decent amounts of rain on the valley floor and potentially heavy snow over the high Sierra. Models show things drying out for a few days after Thursday, perhaps even through the weekend, but the new two week model continues to insist on above average precipitation after that.
Frost Discussion: This will be the last frost night for quite some time. Already this afternoon, the winds aloft are weak but they are becoming westerly. On Friday, winds aloft will increase in velocity and become out of the southwest ahead of a low pressure system which will spread precipitation over most of California later Saturday and for the remainder of the weekend. Instead of lows in the 20s, we will enjoy lows in the 40s through the middle of next week. A largely west to southwest flow will prevail following a system that will move through midweek. For now, everything appears safe through the middle of January.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Friday morning/January 4