February 18, 2019
Summary: This morning, Mother Nature has thrown us a little curve ball in the form of a weak upper air disturbance caught up in the current northerly flow aloft. Snow flakes have reached the ground on the valley floor in various locations. As of the time of this writing, most of the isolated light showers are in Kern County, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. This activity will soon move into the mountains of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties.
More and more dry air will move into the valley as the day progresses and the cloud cover currently evident over the south valley will erode from the north. Tonight will be very cold with widespread mid to upper 20s and ditto that for Wednesday morning, as well.
The latest balloon sounding over Oakland indicated a freezing level of 3,800 feet which will marginally rise by Wednesday only to fall back again Wednesday night and Thursday as a very cold, modified arctic system moves rapidly southward from western Canada. This feature will take an overland trajectory, moving from north to south, so the moisture supply will be quite limited. Even so, strong upper level dynamics should squeeze light showers out of the atmosphere with snow potentially reaching the valley floor Thursday night. this, however, is only if the precipitation has not already been evident over the mountain areas. Even so, from a meteorological perspective, it’s quite interesting to ponder.
On the negative side, Friday and Saturday mornings are also shaping up to be very cold, especially considering the time of year with the likelihood of subfreezing conditions.
Finally, during the second half of the weekend, the overall pattern will undergo a fundamental change. Currently, we have cold modified arctic air masses moving into California from time to time. The flow aloft Saturday will turn from north to northwest and then Sunday and for much of next week it will be out of the west, resulting in much warmer conditions. Showers will spread into northern California next weekend, but it appears finally this time around, precipitation will remain to our north.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy for a time this morning in Kern County with a chance of isolated rain or snow showers. Clearing later this morning. Becoming mostly clear this afternoon through Tuesday night with very cold nights. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a small chance of light showers during the mid to late afternoon. Light showers likely Wednesday night and Thursday, possibly changing to light snow showers Thursday night. clearing Friday. Becoming partly cloudy Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/27/52/28/53 | Reedley 50/27/51/28/52 | Dinuba 48/26/51/28/52 | |
| Porterville 49/27/52/28/53 | Lindsay 49/26/52/28/53 | Delano 49/28/53/28/53 | |
| Bakersfield 48/31/52/32/54 | Taft 49/31/52/33/54 | Arvin 48/27/53/29/54 | |
| Lamont 49/27/53/29/54 | Pixley 49/27/52/28/53 | Tulare 48/26/51/28/52 | |
| Woodlake 48/27/52/28/53 | Hanford 49/28/52/29/54 | Orosi 49/27/53/28/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Light showers 37/49 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 29/53 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 33/57 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 37/59 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 41/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 25 through March 3: This model continues to show well below average temperatures with a big modified arctic air mass over the interior west. The eastern Pacific high shields us from further storminess, so the risk of precipitation during this period appears low.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds today will be generally less than 8 MPH. Winds tonight through Tuesday night will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. by Thursday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The light rain and snow showers currently moving through western Kern County will come to and end over the next hour or two. Otherwise, today through Tuesday night will be dry. The chance of light showers will begin to increase by mid to late afternoon Wednesday and will become likely Wednesday night through Thursday evening. This system is so cold that it’s possible light snow showers could occur Thursday night, but only if there are remaining showers along the back side of the arctic low which, by that time, will be moving into southern California. Rainfall amounts from this event will probably be less than .10 at most locations with locally more. For now, it appears dry weather will set up later Thursday night and last through the weekend. If models are correct, dry weather could prevail most, if not all, of next week as the pattern finally changes to warmer and drier weather.
Frost Discussion: Even despite considerable cloud cover over many locations early this morning, below freezing temperatures were recorded at almost every frost station. The coldest readings as of 7:00am were 28 at Sanger and Ivanhoe. Most locations were between 29 and 32.
For tonight and Tuesday morning, mid to upper 20s will be widespread throughout the region. Coldest river bottom and like locations could dip down to 24 to 25 degrees with most flatland terrain between 27 and 29 and hillsides in the lower 30s. the inversion tonight will be a bit stronger but not great with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer at 34 feet at most locations.
Coldest unprotected locations will reach 32 degrees by 9:00 or 10:00pm and 28 degrees possibly by 2:00AM and not rise to above freezing until about 8:30 to 9:00am Tuesday.
Wednesday morning will be similar with widespread mid to upper 20s with no more than a degree or two or modification from the previous night. Thursday morning will be above freezing but only slightly above in the coldest locations. The coldest disturbance yet will move through Wednesday night and Thursday with light snow showers down to 500 feet possible. I wouldn’t rule out snow showers on the back side of this system Thursday night, but only if precipitation is still occurring as the low moves into southern California.
That brings us to Friday morning when what I consider a bitterly cold air mass for this late in the season will leave widespread below freezing conditions Friday morning and Saturday, as well.
Finally, a fundamental pattern change will occur Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west and a westerly flow breaks through, ending this prolonged period of unusually cold weather.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
27 |
Mcfarland
26 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera 27 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
37 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
27 |
Mettler
28 |
| Edison
27 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/85%
Actual Humidity February 17, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/73%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .36, Blackwell .50, Lindcove .31, Arvin .52, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .35, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/27. Average Temperatures: 63/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1565 -448
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.8 -1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.65 season. or +.76. Month to Date: 3.09 +1.86
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.55, or -.32. Month to Date: .87 +.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 773, Parlier, 750 , Arvin, 675 Shafter, 738 Stratford, 747, Delano NA, Lindcove, 1066, Porterville, 1502
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:43 am Sunset: 5:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 36 / 0.43 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 37 / 0.50 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 51 / 34 / 0.19 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 51 / 33 / 0.05 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 46 / 38 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 48 / 36 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 52 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 51 / 35 / 0.13 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 53 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.05 11.51 127 3.99 44 9.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.09 9.17 112 3.55 44 8.16 13.11
MERCED 0.18 9.47 127 2.29 31 7.47 12.50
MADERA 0.25 7.17 97 1.55 21 7.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.30 7.65 111 1.64 24 6.89 11.50
HANFORD 0.07 5.84 95 1.78 29 6.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.03 3.55 92 1.10 28 3.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 178 0.20 6 3.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.20 10.40 130 2.51 31 8.02 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.20 11.28 142 2.30 29 7.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.34 10.86 127 2.02 24 8.58 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/February 18