April 19, 2019
Summary: Even though upper level high pressure is beginning to shift eastward, temperatures will likely be the warmest this afternoon since early October. Many locations will be near to even above the 90 degree mark. Temperatures this morning are running between 5 to 9 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Bakersfield hit 90 yesterday for the first time this year. High clouds are now visible. They are wrapping around a benign upper low off the southern California coast. Some models this morning actually show a chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms over the Kern County mountains this afternoon.
The weather for tonight and Saturday is more complex. A trough of low pressure moving southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska will move into northern California later tonight and Saturday as the southern California system is pulled to the east, as well. This should add convection to the atmosphere for the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountain areas through Easter Sunday. I would not completely eliminate an isolated shower or sprinkle over the valley floor, especially Saturday afternoon through Easter.
As you might expect, with cooler air moving in aloft and the insurgence of marine air into the valley, temperatures will drop a good 7 to 10 degrees Saturday and another 8 to 10 Sunday, lowering temperatures into the lower 70s at many locations, or a good 20 degrees cooler than this afternoon’s forecast highs.
Springtime rolls on as the newest ridge of upper level high pressure will try to build in from the west Monday. A low center will be parked over Arizona and New Mexico, feeding a dry northerly flow around the far eastern side of the off shore high. The high will push further inland Tuesday through Wednesday for warmer weather. In fact, by Wednesday of next week, lower 90s are a distinct possibility only to fall back once again by Friday as the latest trough moves through.
Some models have been amazingly consistent about a low dropping into California on the 28th and 29th. That would be a week from this Sunday. In theory, this would generate some showers. It’s too far out, however, for me to introduce the chance of showers officially, but we will certainly keep an eye on the situation.
Forecast: Mostly clear today with occasional high clouds. Increasing cloudiness tonight with a slight chance of sprinkles after midnight. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers. Clearing Easter night. mostly clear Monday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/56/79/46/73 | Reedley 90/56/80/45/75 | Dinuba 89/54/79/44/74 | |
| Porterville 90/55/80/47/74 | Lindsay 91/55/80/45/73 | Delano 91/57/80/46/74 | |
| Bakersfield 93/62/82/54/73 | Taft 91/63/82/55/73 | Arvin 93/60/81/50/72 | |
| Lamont 93/59/82/49/72 | Pixley 91/56/80/46/74 | Tulare 89/54/79/45/73 | |
| Woodlake 90/55/80/46/74 | Hanford 91/56/80/45/74 | Orosi 89/55/79/45/73 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 49/71 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 52/87 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 56/93 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 58/91 |
Friday
Mostly clear 56/83 |
Two Week Outlook: April 26 through May 2: Models continue to indicate generally dry conditions as upper level high pressure will be the most dominant feature during this time frame. Overall, temperatures will generally be above average.
April: This model shows April will be fairly typical with near to marginally above average temperatures during the month. This model also indicates there will be equal chances of above or below average precipitation. In other words, the road map on this model is rather vague.
April, May, June: Like the April projection, this model really has no dominant features that would indicate either above or below average temperatures, although the overall pattern should result in marginally above average readings. We are moving into the dry season, and this model indicates equal chances of above or below average rainfall. As we move forward, this will become a moot point.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH today. Later tonight and at times through Easter Sunday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 35 MPH along the west side and locally from Fresno County north. Winds will diminish Sunday evening with light winds returning Monday.
Rain: A rather complex weather pattern has developed over the past 24 hours. It could actually result in sprinkles or even an isolated light shower or two later tonight through Sunday. Most, if not all, locations will likely remain dry, however there is enough uncertainty on some models to mention this in the slight chance category in today’s forecast.
Dry weather will return Sunday night and will last for the remainder of next week. Models have been pointing towards some kind of low pressure system possibly resulting in showers about the 28th or 29th. It’s too far out for me to introduce a chance of showers for that time frame, but it certainly bears watching.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/60%
Actual Humidity April 18, 2019: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/NA%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.43, Parlier 1.33, Blackwell 1.44, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.45, Orange Cove 1.23, Porterville 1.38, Delano 1.42. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 60, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 64, Delano 67
Record Temperatures: 93/35. Average Temperatures: 76/48
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 15 -2
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 62.6 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or – .88. Month to Date: .39 -.24
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.94, or +.01. Month to Date: .05 -.31
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:18 am Sunset: 7:38 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:17
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 89 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 88 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 85 / 51 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1602 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 123 9.09 71 12.83 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 103 8.00 68 11.75 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 107 6.91 62 11.12 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 92 7.22 68 10.69 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 91 6.73 65 10.35 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 85 4.70 52 8.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.94 100 3.93 66 5.93 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 178 1.13 27 4.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.31 103 7.13 60 11.92 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.10 118 9.62 80 11.97 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.53 111 5.83 44 13.12 13.95
Next report: Saturday morning/April 20