April 24, 2019
Summary: Temperatures in the foothills and mountains surrounding the valley are almost early summer like at this early morning hour. Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet and Blue Canyon in the Sierra Nevada at 5,200 feet are each reporting a temperature of 61, which in some cases are warmer than temperatures on the valley floor. This is indicative of a warm subsiding air mass under upper level high pressure which will drive temperatures at most locations into the mid 90s through Friday. The center of the high this morning is off the south/central California coast and will reach its peak Thursday.
Over the weekend, a major shift will occur in the overall pattern. A low pressure system well out over the Pacific Ocean will approach the southern California coast then move inland late Sunday through Monday. The chance of light showers and thunderstorms will increase over the southern Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains, especially on Monday. At this time, I cannot completely rule out a chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor. This is a tricky system, as some models show it moving inland further south with the center of circulation moving inland near the California/Mexico border. If that does happen, dry weather will prevail. At the very least, occasional breezy and much cooler weather will begin to enter the picture early next week.
As this system moves inland, a new low will drop southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into northern California Tuesday then into the Great Basin Wednesday as an inside slider. For now, it appears a chance of rain over the valley floor from this system is extremely low with a chance of some activity over the high Sierra.
Models vary considerably for the pattern for around the 5 through the 8. There is some indication of the formation of a significant low off the California coast. However, at this juncture, it’s much too far out to really add precipitation to the forecast as much can and probably will change between now and then.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Saturday night. becoming partly cloudy Sunday. Variable cloudiness Sunday night and Monday with a slight chance of light showers. Highest risk of showers will be in Kern County. Partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/59/94/61/94 | Reedley 94/58/94/60/93 | Dinuba 92/58/94/60/93 | |
| Porterville 94/59/94/61/94 | Lindsay 93/58/94/61/93 | Delano 94/60/95/62/94 | |
| Bakersfield 94/65/94/66/94 | Taft 94/67/94/67/94 | Arvin 95/62/95/63/94 | |
| Lamont 93/62/93/63/94 | Pixley 93/59/94/61/93 | Tulare 92/58/93/60/93 | |
| Woodlake 93/58/93/60/93 | Hanford 94/61/94/62/94 | Orosi 92/57/93/59/93 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 56/89 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 57/86 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 61/80 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 53/78 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 51/77 |
Two Week Outlook: April 30 through May 6: This model is indicating the first week in May will have a better than even chance of measurable rain. Temperatures will fall back to near seasonal.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 15 MPH through Saturday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: A low pressure system is projected to move through southern California Sunday night and Monday. Some models show this system moving inland too far to the south to threaten precipitation for the valley. However, others have it moving inland around the Los Angeles Basin and points eastward which would threaten showers over the Kern County mountains with a small chance of widely scattered light showers over the valley floor, especially in Kern County. For now, it appears most locations will remain dry. Even so, I would put roughly a 20% chance of measurable rain at any location for especially Monday and in the south valley. Dry weather will return late Monday night through Wednesday. Another low will move into northern California at midweek. For now, it appears central California will remain dry with the exception of the high Sierra.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/55%
Actual Humidity April 23, 2019: Delano, NA, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.50, Parlier 1.46, Blackwell 1.60, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.64, Orange Cove 1.37, Porterville 1.51, Delano 1.51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 65, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 66, Delano 68
Record Temperatures: 101/36. Average Temperatures: 77/49
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 33 +10
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 63.7 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.02. Month to Date: .39 -.38
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.94, or -.06. Month to Date: .05 -.38
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:12 am Sunset: 7:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 89 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 122 9.09 70 12.98 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 101 8.00 67 11.89 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 105 6.91 61 11.28 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 91 7.22 66 10.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 90 6.73 64 10.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 84 4.70 51 9.14 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.94 99 3.93 66 6.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 177 1.13 26 4.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.31 102 7.13 59 12.05 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.10 117 9.62 80 12.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.53 110 6.01 45 13.26 13.95
Next report: Thursday morning/April 25