September 30, 2017
Summary: Low pressure now moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California is shifting upper level high pressure off to the east to be replaced by a significant but fairly dry low pressure system centered over the Great Basin. This low will be the dominant feature through at least Thursday. It will actually set up from the northern Rockies southwest to central California. This is turning winds at the surface on shore and a minimal amount of sea breeze is moving through the Delta. The main factor in the cooling trend beginning today will be lower pressures aloft which will push temperatures down into the mid to upper 80s today and the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
It now appears there will be no precipitation threat this coming week as all the models are indicating this is a dry system, even for the Sierra Nevada. By midweek, the flow will become off shore, allowing a minor warming trend. Overall, though, temperatures through the coming weekend will be near to marginally below average.
Looking further down the road, the chance of precipitation will be very low and some models are suggesting a return of upper level high pressure which should drive temperatures to above average once again.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies will continue Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/51/84/49/78 | Reedley 86/52/85/49/79 | Dinuba 85/51/84/48/79 | |
| Porterville 86/50/85/48/81 | Lindsay 86/50/85/48/80 | Delano 87/56/85/53/81 | |
| Bakersfield 87/61/84/55/79 | Arvin 88/57/85/52/81 | Taft 87/63/84/57/80 | |
| Lamont 88/58/84/53/81 | Pixley 86/53/85/50/80 | Tulare 85/51/84/49/79 | |
| Woodlake 87/52/85/49/80 | Hanford 86/53/84/48/80 | Orosi 86/50/85/48/80 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/79 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 48/82 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 50/85 |
Friday
Mostly clear 51/82 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Two Week Outlook: October 6 through October 12: This model is indicating a low pressure system will be over the interior west with a possible off shore flow over interior California. This pattern is always a dry pattern with temperatures at least marginally above average.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Tuesday with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Visalia, Mid to upper 40s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 25%/85% Bakersfield, 25%/60%
Actual Humidity September 27, 2017: Delano, 72%/15%, Porterville, 78%/13%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates over the Past Seven Days September 27, 2017: Stratford 1.34, Parlier 1.10, Blackwell 1.31, Lindcove 1.16, Arvin 1.35, Orange Cove 1.28, Porterville 1.15, Delano 1.18., Madera Two 1.08 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 70, Blackwell 73, Lindcove 72, Arvin 77, Orange Cove 71, Porterville 74, Delano 71, Madera Two 73
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 75.5 +1.8
Record Temperatures: 102/48. Average Temperatures: 87/56
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2126, +549 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 27, 2017, Fresno: 17.36 season. or +5.88. Month to Date: .16
Since September 27, 2017, Bakersfield: 8.34, or +1.88, Month to Date: ..51, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:54 am Sunset: 6:43 Hours of Daylight: 11:53
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 93 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 92 / 70 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 93 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 155 16.69 119 14.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 129 15.61 119 13.09 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.05 129 14.66 117 12.49 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.26 119 12.96 108 12.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.36 151 14.29 124 11.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.21 111 8.26 82 10.09 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 8.34 129 5.43 84 6.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 178 3.88 75 5.16 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.49 129 13.47 105 12.82 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.17 127 8.06 63 12.76 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.91 136 9.00 65 13.94 13.95
Next Report: Monday, October 2