August 7, 2019
Summary: There are already hints that cooler weather is in our immediate future. The marine layer along the coast has deepened to about 2,000 feet. The sea breeze is moving through the Delta as winds at Travis Air Force Base are sustained at 21, gusting to 29 MPH. Further south at Pacheco Pass winds are gusting to 25 MPH.
There are two low centers which will impact our weather through the weekend. The first is visible only on water vapor satellite imagery but is a few hundred miles west of Point Conception. The second low is much stronger and is roughly 400 miles west of the Oregon coastline. The low west of PT will move inland Thursday, pushing a good surge of marine air down the valley and will move somewhat cooler air in aloft. The second system will move inland right along the California/Oregon border Saturday, resulting in a strong westerly flow aloft and increasing the onshore flow even more. I still think some locations might not even reach the 90 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. Even Friday, temperatures will rise into the lower 90s, at best.
The flow aloft is still southerly. That will change to southwesterly Thursday and westerly over the weekend. As a result, no real challenges with the monsoon are expected. By Monday, the low will have moved into the northern Rockies then a flat zone of upper level high pressure will stretch from the southeastern U.S. all the way to southern California. This will allow temperatures to begin to recover with readings possibly moving back into the lower 100s by Tuesday.
Longer term, no excessive heat is seen on the horizon with temperatures generally marginally above average next week through the following weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds through tonight. Mostly clear and much cooler Thursday through Sunday. Mostly clear and warmer Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 96/61/92/58/89 | Reedley 98/63/94/59/90 | Dinuba 97/61/93/58/89 |
| Porterville 99/63/95/60/91 | Lindsay 98/63/94/58/90 | Delano 99/66/94/61/91 |
| Bakersfield 100/71/97/67/92 | Taft 99/73/96/65/91 | Arvin 101/66/96/62/92 |
| Lamont 101/67/96/63/92 | Pixley 99/65/94/60/91 | Tulare 98/62/93/58/89 |
| Woodlake 98/63/94/59/90 | Hanford 99/65/94/60/90 | Orosi 98/63/94/59/90 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 56/89 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 57/90 |
Monday
Mostly clear 62/97 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 65/101 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 66/102 |
Two Week Outlook: August 13 through August19: this model actually shows much of the U.S. enjoying below average temperatures. The exception is the western one-third where temperatures will be marginally above average. No precipitation is expected at this time.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: winds this morning will be generally light then will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph this afternoon with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side. Winds Thursday through Saturday will be generally out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 possible. Gusts over 30 MPH are also possible along the Interstate 5 corridor and elsewhere.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/50%
Actual Humidity range August 6, 2019: Delano, 91%/23% Porterville, NA%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.90, Parlier 1.89, Blackwell 2.09, Arvin 2.12, Orange Cove 2.12, Porterville 2.02, Delano 1.88. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 82, Blackwell 91, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 92, Delano 82
Record Temperatures: 112/54. Average Temperatures: 98/65
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1249 +244
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 83.4 +4.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.45. Month to Date: .00 +.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:10 am Sunset: 7:58 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:50
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 103 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 103 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 101 / 77 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 98 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 123 3.95 62 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 174 3.02 62 4.87 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 119 9.62 77 12.46 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.79 13.95
Next report: Thursday, August 8