September 30, 2019
Summary: Below is a table of rainfall stats from throughout California as today is the last day of the official water year. As you can see, we did pretty well. Time for heavy coats now temporarily as it is chilly out there this morning. Some ag stations chilled into the 30s, with Sanger, Ivanhoe, Lindcove, and Rio Bravo at 38 and Navalencia at 36. It’s hard to believe frost season begins 32 days from now.
A large, cold area of low pressure is centered over Idaho this morning with a big trough southward into southern California. Impulses continue to rotate through the trough and into mainly northern California where showers are occurring over the Sierra Nevada from roughly Tahoe northward. The main impact of this trough will continue to be unusually cool temperatures for this early in the season. Lows will again dip below 40 tonight in the coldest locations as skies will be generally clear.
To give you an idea of the character of the upper atmosphere, the freezing level taken overnight at Oakland was all the way down to 6,400 feet. The coldest air aloft will be above us today then the low will stretch from southcentral Canada to central California Tuesday, keeping temperatures unusually cool. Finally, on Tuesday night and Wednesday, the trough will begin to shift eastward, allowing a flat zone of upper level high pressure to begin to build eastward into California from the Pacific with noticeably warmer temperatures Wednesday.
Models vary considerably on the exact pattern for Thursday and through the weekend. If there’s any consensus, it is that a weak trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday, just clipping northern California. The impact on central California will be minimal with temperatures near seasonal averages for the weekend.
From this point on, no precipitation is expected for the next week and, more than likely, the next 10 days.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today. Mostly clear tonight through Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/40/71/42/79 | Reedley 71/40/71/43/79 | Dinuba 69/39/71/42/77 |
| Porterville 71/40/72/43/79 | Lindsay 70/38/71/41/78 | Delano 70/43/71/44/80 |
| Bakersfield 71/46/71/48/80 | Taft 70/40/70/48/50 | Arvin 71/43/71/45/81 |
| Lamont 72/44/70/47/80 | Pixley 69/41/71/43/78 | Tulare 69/38/70/42/78 |
| Woodlake 70/39/71/42/79 | Hanford 71/42/71/43/79 | Orosi 69/38/71/42/78 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 46/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 50/87 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 51/88 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/86 |
Two Week Outlook: October 7 through October 13: Predominately upper level high pressure will rule the pattern for much of California during this period with somewhat above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation is very low.
September: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night through Thursday will generally be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: : Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/75%
Actual Humidity range September 27, 2019: Delano, 79%/29% Porterville, 83%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.33, Parlier 1.23, Blackwell Corner 1.45, Arvin 1.39, Orange Cove 1.33, Porterville 1.21, Delano 1.22. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 73, Blackwell 82, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 82, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 101/37. Average Temperatures: 86/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2000 +418
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 75.4 +1.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.36. Month to Date: .00 -.16
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.35. Month to Date: .02 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:54 am Sunset: 6:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave.
CRESCENT CITY 0.28 59.30 93 45.96 72 63.97 64.03
EUREKA 0.32 43.85 109 36.99 92 40.30 40.33
UKIAH 0.01 43.84 117 23.68 63 37.33 37.35
MONTAGUE / SISKIYOU 0.16 13.21 72 8.51 46 18.44 18.47
ALTURAS 0.02 15.54 110 11.69 83 14.15 14.17
MOUNT SHASTA CITY 0.09 46.06 107 21.06 49 43.18 43.21
REDDING 0.04 43.89 127 19.73 57 34.59 34.62
SACRAMENTO EXEC AIRPORT 0.00 24.37 132 15.96 86 18.50 18.52
SACRAMENTO – CSUS 0.00 26.17 129 M M 20.25 20.27
BLUE CANYON AIRPORT* 0.00 78.75 122 52.22 81 64.55 64.62
SANTA ROSA 0.00 48.17 133 24.93 69 36.23 36.28
SAN FRANCISCO 0.00 25.84 109 17.42 74 23.63 23.65
SFO INT’L AIRPORT 0.00 23.35 113 13.86 67 20.64 20.65
OAKLAND AIRPORT 0.00 21.00 101 14.98 72 20.79 20.81
LIVERMORE 0.00 16.96 108 11.28 72 15.68 15.71
MOUNTAIN VIEW – MOFFETT 0.00 14.32 98 8.21 56 14.67 14.68
SAN JOSE 0.00 16.56 112 9.11 61 14.84 14.90
…CENTRAL CALIFORNIA…
STOCKTON 0.00 18.60 132 9.22 66 14.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.47 103 8.17 62 13.09 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 106 7.06 57 12.49 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 95 7.22 60 12.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 103 6.73 59 11.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 94 4.70 47 10.09 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 121 3.95 61 6.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 164 3.08 60 5.16 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.90 108 7.16 56 12.82 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 117 9.62 75 12.76 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 112 6.01 43 13.94 13.95
…SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…
SANDBERG 0.00 17.48 142 6.95 56 12.32 12.33
PALMDALE 0.00 7.09 86 2.57 31 8.29 8.30
LANCASTER 0.00 7.26 99 2.78 38 7.37 7.38
SANTA BARBARA 0.00 21.92 124 8.30 47 17.74 17.76
CAMARILLO 0.00 16.60 109 5.95 39 15.20 15.22
BURBANK – BOB HOPE 0.00 18.97 110 6.34 37 17.30 17.31
LAX INT’L AIRPORT 0.00 16.99 133 3.79 30 12.81 12.82
LOS ANGELES / USC 0.00 18.85 126 4.72 32 14.91 14.93
LONG BEACH 0.00 17.63 144 3.53 29 12.25 12.26
FULLERTON 0.00 17.22 124 3.11 22 13.87 13.88
IRVINE – JOHN WAYNE 0.00 18.08 136 2.79 21 13.32 13.33
OCEANSIDE 0.00 15.04 110 4.96 36 13.65 13.66
RAMONA 0.00 20.43 127 5.80 36 16.03 16.04
SAN DIEGO – LINDBERGH 0.00 12.93 125 3.34 32 10.33 10.34
ONTARIO T 16.07 107 3.80 25 15.02 15.04
RIVERSIDE 0.00 13.13 106 4.25 34 12.39 12.40
PALM SPRINGS 0.00 8.84 154 2.80 49 5.74 5.74
THERMAL 0.00 4.23 133 0.53 17 3.19 3.20
CAMPO 0.00 17.23 110 5.38 34 15.72 15.73
BARSTOW – DAGGETT 0.00 4.08 101 1.42 35 4.05 4.06
NEEDLES 0.00 5.79 126 1.94 42 4.61 4.62
Next report: October 1