October 17, 2019
Summary: A dry cold front moved through central California during the pre dawn hours. The trough of low pressure responsible for the front stretches from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California. Surface pressures will rapidly fall today over the interior west with high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This will spawn gusty, northwesterly winds down the valley today with gusts possibly to 30 MPH along the west side and locally elsewhere.
Temperatures will drop from the mid 80s yesterday to the mid 70s today. Yet another dry cold front will move through California Saturday, issuing in a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air. Readings will remain in the low to mid 70s as a result through the weekend. By Monday, we will find ourselves on the eastern rim of a high center over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Models are consistent this morning in showing this high moving inland over the western U.S. by midweek, driving temperatures well into the 80s. most of the models also show a general ridge of upper level high pressure over the western states for dry weather and above average temperatures through weekend after next.
Forecast: Other than occasional cloudiness, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Cooler and somewhat breezy today. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/41/72/41/74 | Reedley 74/45/72/43/74 | Dinuba 73/40/72/41/73 |
| Porterville 74/42/73/42/74 | Lindsay 74/40/72/40/74 | Delano 75/45/72/45/75 |
| Bakersfield 74/49/72/48/73 | Taft 73/52/72/51/73 | Arvin 73/45/72/44/74 |
| Lamont 74/45/72/46/73 | Pixley 73/42/72/42/73 | Tulare 73/41/71/41/72 |
| Woodlake 74/42/72/41/74 | Hanford 75/43/72/43/74 | Orosi 73/41/72/41/73 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 42/75 |
Monday
Mostly clear 47/83 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 48/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 50/85 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 48/81 |
Two Week Outlook: October 24 through October 30: This model shows most of the lower 48 with below average temperatures. The exception is California which will be under the influence of high pressure just off shore for above average temperatures. The chance of rain during this period is slim to none.
October: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: As the day wears on, winds will become out of the northwest at around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds later tonight will diminish to 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday and Friday night will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday will again be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side, diminishing Saturday night with light winds returning Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/85%
Actual Humidity range October 16, 2019: Delano, 84%/28% Porterville, 88%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.06, Parlier 0.93, Blackwell Corner 1.10, Arvin 1.21, Orange Cove 1.04, Porterville 0.97, Delano 099. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 65, Blackwell 74, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 72, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 97/36. Average Temperatures: 79/50
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2016 +380
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.6 -3.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.22. Month to Date: .00 -.22
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.10. Month to Date: .00 -.10
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 Sunset: 6:19 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:12
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 84 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 85 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 83 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 441 0.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 4 0.26 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.24 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 45 0.22 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 27 0.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 286 0.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 291 0.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 13 0.23 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 175 0.20 13.95
Next report: Friday, October 18