October 14, 2017
Summary: Upper level high pressure is just off shore and will begin to track eastward over California beginning today. Of more importance is a deep low pressure system which is currently barreling through Idaho and Utah. This is allowing surface high pressure to fill in behind the storm. This, in turn, will generate a strong off shore flow, especially this afternoon through Sunday. This is similar to the situation we had early this week with strong, gusty, easterly winds moving downslope and into the Kern County portion of the valley. It appears this will be somewhat likely this afternoon through Sunday. With the drying effect of downslope heating off the mountains, temperatures, especially in Kern County, should reach the 90 degree mark Sunday but this is even more likely for Monday. The rest of the valley north of Kern County will have light winds with readings generally in the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday with the warmest pockets possibly near 90 degrees.
The pattern for Thursday through Friday is becoming quite interesting. A low pressure system will approach the central coast from the west while a strong trough of low pressure digs southward into northern California. It still looks like this system could tap into subtropical moisture and move it into the storm. Some models are indicating the likelihood of rain, especially Thursday night and Friday. more models than not are now leaning in that direction, so it is certainly necessary to add an increasing chance of showers to the forecast for Thursday night and Friday along with much cooler temperatures.
Beyond Friday of next week, a zonal flow will set up as a flat ridge of high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and extends through California into the Desert Southwest with the storm track moving from west to east into Washington and Oregon. This is a dry pattern, so the chance of rain will drop off after Friday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy Thursday through Friday with an increasing chance of rain, especially Thursday night and Friday. partly cloudy Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 78/43/85/46/88 | Reedley 78/44/84/47/88 | Dinuba 78/42/84/46/88 | |
| Porterville 81/44/85/47/89 | Lindsay 81/43/85/46/89 | Delano 81/47/89/50/90 | |
| Bakersfield 83/55/90/58/91 | Arvin 87/54/90/58/91 | Taft 83/55/88/58/90 | |
| Lamont 87/54/90/59/91 | Pixley 79/43/85/46/89 | Tulare 78/43/84/46/88 | |
| Woodlake 79/44/84/46/88 | Hanford 80/44/85/48/90 | Orosi 79/43/84/48/88 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 51/86 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 52/83 |
Thursday
PM rain possible 50/75 |
Friday
Showers likely 52/70 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 46/74 |
Two Week Outlook: October 21 through October 27: The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues. Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue. With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: North of Kern County, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday. In Kern County, pressure differences will really tighten up this afternoon between the interior and the coast, possibly allowing strong Santa Ana winds to move downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor from later this afternoon through Sunday. Wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH are possible near the base of the mountains with possible gusts to 35 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. Pressure differences will begin to relax Sunday night for a decrease in winds with light winds in all areas Monday and Tuesday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday night and possibly Thursday. The combination of a trough of low pressure digging southward into California and an upper level low moving eastward into central California will result in an increasing chance of showers and, if models are correct, this would take place Thursday night and Friday. some models actually show the Sierra Nevada receiving an inch to an inch and a half of precipitation, so one would assume that, at least north of Kern County, at least a quarter of an inch would not be out of the question for the valley floor. This system will move to the east late Friday night and Saturday, returning dry weather to the region.
The outlook for Sunday and most of next week appears dry as a westerly flow develops over California with the main storm track in the Pacific Northwest.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield Upper Mid 20s to the lower 30s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/85% Bakersfield, 15%/35%
Actual Humidity October 12, 2017: Delano, 86%/23%, Porterville, 85%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 12, 2017: Stratford 1.32, Parlier .96, Blackwell 1.25, Lindcove 1.03, Arvin 1.39, Orange Cove 1.14, Porterville .96, Delano 1.00 Madera Two .98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 68, Blackwell 72, Lindcove 68, Arvin 74, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 71, Delano 65, Madera Two 72
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.3 -3.9
Record Temperatures: 95/40. Average Temperatures: 81/52
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2149, +519 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 12, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.15. Month to Date: .00
Since October 12, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.06, Month to Date: .00, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:06 am Sunset: 6:23 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 76 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 76 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 76 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 75 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 74 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
Next Report: Monday, October 16