December 4, 2019
Summary: Light rain has spread over the entire valley. Rainfall amounts thus far have generally been less than .15 at most locations through 6:00am. The center of low pressure is located just west of Santa Maria this morning. This system has slowed down a bit with the center of circulation moving right across Kern County this afternoon and into south central Nevada by the late evening hours. Since the relatively coldest air aloft will be overhead this afternoon, the chance for isolated thunderstorms will increase from roughly noon through 6:00pm or so. Because this is such a mild storm, small hail is possible but not likely.
The precipitation will rapidly draw to a close by the late evening hours as the storm pulls off to the east/northeast. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will follow, creating enough of a warm air inversion for widespread fog to easily form. That’s assuming higher clouds move eastward. I wouldn’t be surprised to see lower level clouds linger for much of the day Thursday.
On Friday, the high will begin to shift eastward, allowing the next Pacific storm to drop south/southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska. Most models place the center of circulation roughly 400 miles off the southern California coast Saturday morning with a moist west/southwest flow underneath center of circulation moving into central California Saturday and Saturday night. the storm’s best dynamics will be over Oregon and northern California. Even so, the Sierra Nevada from roughly Kings Canyon northward, should receive significant precipitation will heavy higher elevation snow.
The low will begin to weaken and shift eastward Sunday with showers continuing for much of the day. A strong ridge of upper level high pressure will be parked just west of the California coast Sunday night then will move overhead Monday. This high will also build a ridge far to the north, possibly as far north as the Arctic Circle. By the middle of next week, the high will flatten out, allowing a dry trough of low pressure to move through. After Wednesday, high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California will result in a prolonged period of dry weather. From this coming Monday and beyond, look for extensive night and morning fog with some afternoon clearing.
Forecast: Periods of rain today. A chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through the early evening hours. Showers ending by late evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy overnight with areas of fog and low clouds developing late tonight and Thursday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning with areas of fog and low clouds developing Friday morning. Increasing higher clouds Friday afternoon leading to a chance of rain Friday night. periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/44/61/41/64 | Reedley 58/43/60/43/63 | Dinuba 57/42/61/42/63 | |
| Porterville 59/43/61/43/64 | Lindsay 59/41/61/42/64 | Delano 60/45/63/44/65 | |
| Bakersfield 62/47/63/48/65 | Taft 61/48/63/48/64 | Arvin 61/46/63/45/66 | |
| Lamont 60/45/63/45/65 | Pixley 60/43/61/43/64 | Tulare 58/41/61/42/64 | |
| Woodlake 58/42/61/42/64 | Hanford 59/43/62/43/63 | Orosi 58/41/61/41/64 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Periods of rain 50/62 |
Sunday
Showers likely 48/62 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 41/58 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partial clearing 36/62 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partial clearing 35/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 11 through December 17: This model is indicating a more consistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California. The chance of rain during this time frame appears low. Temperatures will be governed by the amount of fog and/or low clouds.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: North of Kern County this morning, winds will be mainly out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds in Kern County, especially along the Hwy 58 corridor from Bakersfield to the base of the mountains, winds will be out of the east at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds in the extreme south near the Interstate 5 corridor will be out of the south/southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing by mid day. Winds this afternoon will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds tonight through Thursday night will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds late Friday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH later Friday night through Saturday with stronger gusts.
Rain: The following are rainfall amounts from the current storm through 6:00am. Bakersfield .10, Taft .04, Mettler .04, Arvin .02, Shafter .08, Delano .10, Porterville .11, Exeter .14, Lindcove .05, Visalia .07, Hanford .11, Lemoore .15, Five Points .20, Reedley .08, Orange Cove .04, Fresno .08, Firebaugh .08, Clovis .13.
As you can see, rainfall amounts thus far have been relatively unimpressive. The main center of low pressure will track through Kern County this afternoon, meaning the coldest and most unstable portion of this storm will be overhead during the time of maximum daytime heating. Even though it has slowed some, this system is still moving relatively fast so look for showers to come to an end during the evening.
Rainfall amounts from this point on will generally be in the .10 to .25 range, however locally over .33 is possible, especially where thunderstorms track. Dry weather will return tonight and continue more than likely through Friday, though there’s a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north Friday afternoon. Rain will again overspread the valley later Friday night, continuing on and off through Sunday. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon and evening.
Dry weather will return Sunday night. models are still indicating a persistent ridge of upper level high pressure will be off shore and the storm track will be well to our north for a prolonged period of dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/95%
Actual Humidity range December 2, 2019: Delano, 98%/46% Porterville, 97%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .25, Parlier .24, Blackwell Corner .30, Arvin .37, Orange Cove .22, Porterville .28, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 55, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 75/30. Average Temperatures: 58/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 406 -128
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 53.3- +6.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.50 season. or -.28. Month to Date: .78 +.70
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.07, or +.08. Month to Date: T -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 171, Parlier 226, Arvin 130, Shafter 161, Stratford 172, Delano 193, Lindcove 174, Porterville 284
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 51 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 49 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 57 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 47 / 0.12 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.67 2.64 100 3.73 142 2.63 14.06
MODESTO 0.53 1.48 69 2.97 138 2.15 13.11
MERCED M T 0 2.60 127 2.04 12.50
MADERA T 1.48 71 2.25 108 2.08 12.02
FRESNO T 1.50 84 1.82 102 1.78 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.94 61 1.57 102 1.54 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.07 108 0.87 88 0.99 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.92 108 1.31 154 0.85 5.18
SALINAS 1.21 2.70 129 3.63 174 2.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 2.22 128 2.47 142 1.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.98 98 1.81 89 2.03 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon/December 4