Summary: The first phase of the current storm has moved through with just light showers, mainly north of Kern County. Freezing levels have finally begun to come down from 11,000 feet yesterday to this morning’s level of 7,900 feet. The wind soundings in the Hanford Doppler radar system shows winds out of the south at 20 knots from 1000 to 6000 feet and from 6000 to 16000 feet, winds are out of the southwest at 30 to 40 knots.
The second phase of the storm will move into northern California later this morning and during the afternoon hours. Most of the shower activity will again be north of Kern County with mainly light showers, especially from Fresno County northward. Later tonight and Sunday, the main body of low pressure currently just west of Eureka will move through northern California with the southern flank of the low moving through central California. This will be the colder sector of the storm, allowing snow levels to drop to between 5,000 and 6,000 feet. The daytime heating process, weak as it may be, may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, again especially from Fresno County north.
Showers will rapidly taper off Sunday evening as the low pulls off to the east. A massive ridge of upper level high pressure will extend from the eastern Pacific waters off the California coast all the way northward into eastern Alaska. As we’ve mentioned, a very cold air mass will dive south/southeast along the eastern rim of this high and into the Rockies and the Midwest. This means California will not see subfreezing temperatures for quite some time.
Fog and low clouds may become widespread Monday and Tuesday mornings, but that’s only if skies clear of mid and high level clouds. A weak trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday with only variable cloudiness to mark its passage. Its main impact will be to inhibit fog formation for about 24 hours. After Wednesday, a flat zone of high pressure will park off the California coast with the next series of storms moving into the Pacific Northwest, clipping the northern ¼ of California from time to time. We are now well into fog season, so assuming skies clear later in the work week and through the weekend, fog and low clouds will be widespread with possibly just a little afternoon clearing. Models for later next week are indicating above average temperatures, however models don’t take fog coverage under consideration.
Forecast: A chance of showers this morning. Light showers this afternoon, mainly north of Kern County. Showers later tonight through Sunday. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers rapidly tapering off Sunday night. areas of fog and low clouds forming late Sunday night and Monday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Monday afternoon. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Variable mid and higher level clouds Tuesday night and Wednesday with patchy fog Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday with widespread night and morning fog with at least partial afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/51/60/41/57 | Reedley 64/51/61/41/57 | Dinuba 64/50/60/40/56 | |
| Porterville 66/51/61/43/58 | Lindsay 65/51/61/41/58 | Delano 66/52/61/43/58 | |
| Bakersfield 68/55/62/46/58 | Taft 67/55/61/47/59 | Arvin 68/53/62/44/59 | |
| Lamont 67/53/62/47/58 | Pixley 66/51/61/42/58 | Tulare 63/49/60/41/57 | |
| Woodlake 65/50/60/41/58 | Hanford 65/51/60/42/57 | Orosi 64/49/61/40/56 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 44/57 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/variable clouds 43/58 |
Thursday
Am fog/partial clearing 44/55 |
Friday
Am fog/partial clearing 40/54 |
Saturday
Am fog/partial clearing 41/53 |
Two Week Outlook: December 14 through December 20: This model is indicating a more consistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California. The chance of rain during this time frame appears low. Temperatures will be governed by the amount of fog and/or low clouds.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Later this afternoon through Sunday, winds will be out of the west or northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday night will diminish to 6 to 12 MPH. late Sunday night through Tuesday, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The first phase of this storm moved through rather weakly during the early morning hours. A few locations recorded a few hundredths of an inch, mainly north of Kern County. Phase 2 will move in during the late morning and afternoon hours with periods of showers. As the main body of low pressure moves through tonight and Sunday, showers will become more widespread throughout the valley. There’s a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. If these storms develop, they will produce localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will come to a quick end by late Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts from this morning through the storm’ s end will generally produce no more than .10 to .20 along the west side and in Kern County. In Madera County, northern Tulare County and eastern Fresno County, it’s possible .25 to .50 could be measured with generally less than .33 south of a Visalia/Exeter line. Dry weather will begin Sunday night and models are holding firm on a dry pattern for all of next week. A weak trough of low pressure will try to barrel through midweek, but only an increase in clouds is expected. After Wednesday, the main storm track will be driven into the Pacific Northwest.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 45%/95%
Actual Humidity range December 6, 2019: Delano, 100%/49% Porterville, 97%/43%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .18, Parlier .22, Blackwell Corner .24, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .26, Delano .27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 56, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 69/25. Average Temperatures: 57/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 450 -160
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 53.5- +7.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.82 season. or -.13. Month to Date: 1.10 +.84
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.27, or +.17. Month to Date: .20 +.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 174, Parlier 240, Arvin 130, Shafter 168, Stratford 185, Delano 210, Lindcove 187, Porterville 318
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:59 Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 64 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.27 114 3.87 134 2.88 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.50 64 3.05 129 2.36 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.28 197 2.69 124 2.17 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.61 72 2.42 109 2.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.82 93 1.92 98 1.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.36 83 1.71 105 1.63 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.27 115 1.20 109 1.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.04 112 1.31 141 0.93 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.22 140 3.87 168 2.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.62 188 2.84 147 1.93 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.32 103 1.95 87 2.25 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/December 7