January 4, 2020
Summary: A weak trough of low pressure and its associated cold front are currently moving through northern California. The frontal system itself extends from northwest Nevada southwestward to just south of San Francisco then southwestward out over the Pacific Ocean. Light precipitation has spread as far south as a Bay Area/Sacramento line, however the front will be inactive by the time it moves through the valley later this afternoon.
A cooler air mass will follow with gusty winds down the west side of the valley later this afternoon and tonight. ahead of the front today, however, temperatures will be quite pleasant for this time of year, reaching into the low to mid 60s. They’ll fall back into the low to mid 50s Sunday and Monday. It’s possible that dew points may fall enough for local frost by Tuesday in some of the low lying areas.
The next trough of low pressure will arrive Wednesday through Thursday of next week. Like its predecessor, it will be weak with precipitation mainly confined to northern California.
I’m still looking towards the 11th of this month for the possibility of a major shift in the pattern. For much of this winter, arctic air masses have been confined to Alaska and northern Canada where temperatures have been below average for a number of weeks now. Sooner or later, these air masses will head south. Where and when are the questions. Models beginning the 11th, however, are showing a low pressure system diving southward from western Canada and possibly into California for a theoretical increase in showers. While this is occurring, the eastern Pacific high could migrate further off shore, possibly allowing modified arctic air to move into the western U.S. this is definitely a wait and see game but considering the very mild winter we’ve had thus far, we are certainly way overdue for below average temperatures as is the rest of the lower 48.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy through tonight. partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/38/56/33/54 | Reedley 63/38/55/33/54 | Dinuba 62/39/56/32/53 | |
| Porterville 63/39/55/33/54 | Lindsay 63/38/56/32/55 | Delano 64/40/56/33/55 | |
| Bakersfield 64/41/55/38/55 | Taft 63/42/55/40/55 | Arvin 65/40/55/39/56 | |
| Lamont 64/39/55/39/56 | Pixley 64/40/56/34/54 | Tulare 61/38/56/32/54 | |
| Woodlake 63/38/56/33/54 | Hanford 63/38/56/35/54 | Orosi 62/38/56/32/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 32/54 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 38/57 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 37/55 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 34/59 |
Saturday
Increasing clouds 35/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 10 through January 16: This model is indicating a much higher than average risk of below average temperatures during this time frame with the possibility of precipitation from time to time.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions this morning. Winds later this afternoon and tonight will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be light to near calm.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue for at least the next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees Sunday morning. a weakening cold front will move down the valley later this afternoon and evening. As pressures fall over the interior, winds will pick up, mainly along the west side. This will issue in a cooler air mass resulting in temperatures returning to near seasonal values through Tuesday. Dew points may drop enough Sunday and Sunday night for colder locations to dip to at or below freezing, but only marginally. It’s possible that where it clears Monday and Tuesday mornings, coldest readings could drop down to 29 to 31 for short durations. Cloud cover Wednesday and beyond will help maintain above freezing conditions.
We’re still looking at the time frame of the 11th and beyond for the possibility of colder weather. No real freeze pattern shows up, however the possibility of a north to south flow between high pressure off shore and a big trough of low pressure off the western U.S. could lead to some chilly nights after the eleventh. This is still a week away, so there will be changes day by day as modeling information becomes available.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 3, 2020: Delano, 100%/52% Porterville, 99%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .28, Parlier .36, Blackwell Corner .33, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .32, Delano .37. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 49, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 71/22. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 899 -296
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 48.0 +4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 2.88 season. or -.81. Month to Date: .00 -.22
Since Oct 1, 2019 Bakersfield: 2.59, or +.51. Month to Date: .00 -.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 406, Parlier 476, Arvin 334, Shafter 383, Stratford 400, Delano 455, Lindcove 512, Porterville 736
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 Sunset: 4:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 87 5.88 118 4.98 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.23 75 4.49 104 4.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.96 129 3.87 101 3.85 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.26 55 2.99 73 4.09 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.88 78 2.33 63 3.69 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.31 67 1.87 55 3.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.59 125 1.30 63 2.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 63 1.57 90 1.75 5.18
SALINAS T 5.06 122 4.77 115 4.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.01 153 3.60 92 3.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.16 97 2.74 64 4.31 13.95
Next report: January 4/PM