January 22, 2020
Summary: The remnants of a cold front are moving through the valley this morning. a few renegade light showers have made it as far south as Madera and Fresno Counties, however these showers are dissipating as they try to move into the south valley. In the broader realm, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific is currently building into California from the west. The freezing level overnight over Vandenberg was 8,600 feet and 8,100 feet over Oakland. These levels will rise over the next 72 hours as warm subsiding air associated with the dome of high pressure takes shape. This will also create a warm air inversion above the valley floor which is a good feature for widespread fog and low clouds Thursday through Saturday.
The next major change in the pattern will occur over the weekend. The high will begin to shift into the interior west Saturday, allowing an elongated trough of low pressure to move through the eastern Pacific and into California Sunday into early Monday. Models still indicate the southern limit of precipitation will be across the Kern County mountains. Following this trough passage, the next ridge of high pressure will quickly follow for dry weather for at least the first half of next week, if not longer.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy for a time this morning. becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon through Saturday with areas of night and morning clouds and fog. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. showers spreading in from the northwest Sunday, especially during the afternoon. Showers likely Sunday night with a chance of showers early Monday morning. mostly to partly cloudy later Monday through Tuesday morning. becoming mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/39/62/41/63 | Reedley 63/40/61/41/63 | Dinuba 61/38/61/40/62 | |
| Porterville 63/38/61/40/63 | Lindsay 63/38/62/40/63 | Delano 63/41/61/42/63 | |
| Bakersfield 64/45/65/46/64 | Taft 64/47/64/47/63 | Arvin 65/42/64/43/63 | |
| Lamont 63/41/64/42/63 | Pixley 63/39/62/40/63 | Tulare 61/38/62/40/63 | |
| Woodlake 63/38/61/39/62 | Hanford 62/40/61/42/63 | Orosi 62/37/62/39/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Increasing clouds 44/63 |
Sunday
PM showers 49/62 |
Monday
AM showers possible 43/59 |
Tuesday
Am fog/partly cloudy 37/59 |
Wednesday
Am fog/partly cloudy 38/61 |
Two Week Outlook: January 28 through February 3: This model is showing a more dominant ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and California, resulting in generally above average temperatures. This pattern is not conducive for precipitation.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Saturday night. models have come into better agreement for a trough of low pressure moving through Sunday and Sunday night. showers will become likely over the entire valley, especially Sunday afternoon and night. it’s possible showers could last into early Monday morning. I’ll take a long term stab at rainfall amounts and forecast between .10 and .25 north of Kern County with locally more in Fresno and Madera Counties and no more than .10 to .20 over the valley portion of Kern County. Monday of next week and beyond appear to be dry under a dome of high pressure.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 55%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 21, 2020: Delano, 100%/59% Porterville, 97%/57%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .33, Blackwell Corner .33, Arvin .35, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .30, Delano .31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 48, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 49, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1240 -319
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.1 +1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -1.44. Month to Date: .65 -.85
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.82, or +.08. Month to Date: .23 -.55
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 663, Parlier 731, Arvin 541, Shafter 629, Stratford 633, Delano 712, Lindcove 825, Porterville 1092
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07 Sunset: 5:14 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 5.14 78 7.91 121 6.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.85 66 6.35 109 5.82 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.62 101 6.12 110 5.56 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.89 51 4.58 81 5.67 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.53 71 4.42 89 4.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 65 3.33 69 4.80 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.82 103 2.27 83 2.74 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 48 3.46 143 2.42 5.18
SALINAS M 5.88 104 5.80 103 5.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 120 6.36 115 5.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 81 6.41 109 5.88 13.95
Next report: January 22/afternoon