November 2, 2020
Summary: today is the first day of frost season and already a distinct possibility of below freezing weather is on the horizon for the latter part of the weekend and into next week. More in the frost discussion below.
In the meantime, through the work week, well above average temperatures will continue as high pressure dominates. The freezing level is at 13,800 feet this morning. Over the mountain areas, a layer of warm air is illustrated by a temperature of 65 at Sandburg at 4,100 feet and 61 degrees at Blue Canyon at 5,600 feet. Embedded within this high is a weak upper air disturbance centered near Santa Barbara this morning. it continues to spread variable amounts of high clouds over central California. The low will track northeastward through central California today and tonight then will dissipate over the interior west Tuesday and Wednesday.
A rather vigorous low pressure system will move out of the northeast Pacific Thursday to a position off the northwest coast. This system is quite cold and will dive into the Great Basin late Friday night and Saturday. Much cooler temperatures will begin Friday as a cold front moves down the valley Friday night and early Saturday. For now this looks like a dry cold front. Although the upper air dynamics will be mainly in Nevada, showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada with the snow level eventually diving down to 3,500 feet by Sunday morning.
By Monday, this storm will be shifting into the Rockies as a big ridge of upper level high pressure builds along the Pacific coast and into western Canada. This will generate a north/south flow aloft from western Canada and into California. Highs early next week will probably only move into the mid to upper 50s. Overnight lows will be discussed in the frost section.
Later next week, the high will begin to shift into the western U.S., eventually creating a west/northwest flow aloft and moving warm air in from the eastern Pacific.
Forecast: Outside of periods of mid and high level clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness Friday, becoming breezy and much cooler. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Saturday night with a slight chance of isolated showers, mainly near the foothills. Mostly clear Sunday but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern county and possibly eastern Tulare County. Mostly clear and cold Sunday night. mostly clear and cool Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/43/82/44/80 | Reedley 83/43/82/43/81 | Dinuba 81/42/81/43/79 |
| Porterville 83/43/83/43/80 | Lindsay 82/41/82/42/81 | Delano 83/44/82/44/81 |
| Bakersfield 84/56/83/56/80 | Taft 82/59/82/60/80 | Arvin 84/48/83/49/81 |
| Lamont 83/48/82/48/81 | Pixley 82/44/82/44/80 | Tulare 81/41/81/42/79 |
| Woodlake 81/42/82/42/80 | Hanford 83/45/82/45/80 | Orosi 81/43/82/43/79 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 44/80 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 48/66 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 37/60 |
Sunday
AM clouds/PM sun 33/57 |
Monday
Mostly clear 31/58 |
Two Week Outlook: November 9 through November 15: This model continues to show the trend of below average temperatures over the western U.S. Even though there’s no strong signature for rain, rain is not ruled out, either, so the chance of precipitation remains low.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable during the day. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. Expect strong, gusty, northwesterly winds to begin Friday.
Rain Discussion: Dry conditions will continue through Friday. A cold and rather vigorous low pressure system will dive southeastward into the Great Basin late Friday night and Saturday. most models place the western flank of this system over California which will spread snow showers down the Sierra Nevada. Even though modeling still shows dry weather for the valley floor, a slight chance of light showers is possible late Friday night and Saturday, mainly near the foothills. Expect dry weather Sunday and through all of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees each night through Friday and more than likely Saturday. we begin frost season by discussing a cold and vigorous low pressure system which will dive into the Great Basin late Friday night and Saturday. as this low pulls into the Rocky Mountain region Sunday, upper level high pressure will build along the Pacific coast and ridge into western Canada. The squeeze play between the off shore high and the cold low over the interior will create a north/south jet stream from western Canada straight southward into California. Gusty northwesterly winds over the weekend will drive down dew points. This far out, of course, it’s difficult to determine just how the big players will set up, but upper 20s and lower 30s are certainly possible Sunday and Monday mornings. This is something that we’ll simply have to tweak as the week wears on.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 2, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Tulare and Merced Counties. The air quality for the rest of the valley is deemed unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/28%, Porterville, 83%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .80, Parlier .68, Blackwell Corners .80, Arvin .89, Orange Cove .77, Porterville .74, Delano .74. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 61, Blackwell 71, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 64, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 88/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Heating Degree Days This Season: 46, -67
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for November So Far: 64.0 +6.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.66 Month to Date: .00, -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .T, +or- -.32. Month to date .00, -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:25 am Sunset: 4:59 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:36
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 82 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 83 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 84 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 83 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 83 / 79 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.87 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.72 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.55 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.32 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.32 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.61 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.64 13.95
Next report: November 2, 2020/pm