Summary: Temperatures out there underneath all that wall to wall sunshine are in the lower 60s as of 1:30 this afternoon. Dew points are actually a little lower, possibly because of a weak off shore flow underway. A trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest tonight and Wednesday morning then will morph into a northeast to southwest oriented trough from central Canada to southern California late Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day.
In the meantime, a big ridge over the eastern Pacific will build into western Canada, creating a brief north/northeast flow aloft over California which will be squeezed between the off shore high and the trough to our east. Through Wednesday, very little change can be expected. Daytime highs on Thanksgiving will drop into mostly the mid 50s at most locations, about 6 to 8 degrees cooler than Wednesday’s anticipated highs. Even though the air mass overspreading central California is cooler, it is not critically cold for the time of year. It is drier, however, and will lower dew points enough for widespread frost beginning Friday morning and continuing for a few mornings thereafter. This is discussed more fully below in the frost section.
Also, a brief but strong off shore flow Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving night will contribute in squeezing dry air into the valley. By Friday afternoon, the off shore high will be moving overhead, effectively sealing in the dry air mass onto the valley floor. The high will increase in coverage, eventually covering the entire western U.S. and western Canada by Sunday. This will eventually allow daytime highs to rise to marginally above average but strong radiational cooling each night will continue the chilly overnight lows.
Models for the first week in December conflict quite a bit. Some show a cut off low developing embedded within the massive high. This probably will not bring that much needed precipitation, but it does look interesting.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thanksgiving day. Clear Thanksgiving night through Tuesday with cold nights.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/61/33/54 | Reedley 34/62/34/55 | Dinuba 33/60/34/54 | |
| Porterville 34/61/34/55 | Lindsay 32/62/33/55 | Delano 35/62/35/56 | |
| Bakersfield 41/61/40/56 | Taft 44/61/41/54 | Arvin 37/62/38/56 | |
| Lamont 36/61/37/55 | Pixley 34/61/34/55 | Tulare 32/61/32/54 | |
| Woodlake 32/62/32/54 | Hanford 35/61/35/55 | Orosi 32/61/33/55 | |
Winds: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH while winds during the night through mid morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday night. Winds Thanksgiving Day will be out of the north/northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the far west side. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be generally light, but possibly out of the northeast at 10 to 20 MPH, mainly along the I 5 corridor.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: Temperatures are roughly the same this afternoon as they were yesterday at this time. Dew points, however, are down anywhere from 1 to 4 degrees with most locations reporting dew points in the low 40s. Dew points have fallen into the mid to upper 30s in portions of Kern County due to a weak off shore flow. Temperatures Wednesday morning should be about the same as last night’s lows though there may be a couple of locations that come in a little colder under cloudless skies.
Coldest readings in river bottom and similar situations could drop down to 29 to 30 degrees tonight with most flatland locations between 32 and 37. Similar conditions can be expected Thanksgiving morning.
Friday and each morning through at least Monday continue to appear to be below freezing on modeling information. Models this week have been amazingly consistent in nailing down this pattern. Without being too repetitive, basically we’ll have a brief north/northeast flow inject cooler, drier air down the valley. Couple that with an off shore flow Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving night. I do believe we’re looking at widespread upper 20s and lower 30s with the coldest locations dipping down to 25 to 27. Again, this is very tentative and we’ll know more Thursday evening where dew points will likely settle in. Once this dry air settles to the bottom of the valley, there it will remain until some kind of weather system moves through, allowing dew points to come up even if it doesn’t rain.
Unfortunately, rainfall amounts during November have been scant, so soil moisture on the floor is quite limited, aiding in the upcoming cold snap.
We should see slow moderation perhaps as early as Monday, but even Monday through Wednesday of next week, barring something unforeseen, will see coldest locations remaining below freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 25/morning